Hey guys,
As I mentioned in my other probability thread on NRL I have been building a roughly generic sports modelling tool to analyse data and return estimated probabilities for upcoming sports matches. It has been going alright for NRL and I am looking to expand into AFL.
I have an alright background with AFL but definitely not as much knowledge as I have with the NRL so I thought I would see if any AFL experts have opinions on the following:
- The significance of the last X results - should the last match this team played be given more weight than the match before that which is given more weight than the match before that? If so by how much is each recent match worth compared to the previous?
- The significance of a result at home or away - If the model is considering A v B should it give more weighting to A's home matches and B's away matches. If so how much weighting? Or are all past games created equal?
- Home much is home ground advantage worth? Does it differ depending on the teams (i.e. a WA team traveling to Melbourne)
I have some ideas on this myself but I'm playing around with the data and the results don't always match my expectations, so I am interested in any ideas people might have. Also if you have an idea on other things that may contribute to predicting AFL matches let me know. I will be doing a list of future additions to make so any idea is a good one.