The Derby-Go-Round



Daily Racing Form Las Vegas correspondent Dave Tuley makes no secret of his admiration for West Coast trainer Bob Baffert.



It shone through Thursday when Tuley used two of Baffert's three colts among his selections for Saturday's 1 1/4th-mile Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.



Interestingly, Tuley used the Baffert horse he seemed to be considering least on top, left the one he appeared to be pondering most (Point Determined) out entirely, lowered the one he thought he'd have first to third and embraced the one pony he'd sworn off.



The Kentucky Derby with a full field of 20 will do that to a person.



It's truly like riding a merry-go-round.



Which beauty do you pick?



Each has special charms.



Tuley settled on Wood Memorial winner Bob and John, a 12/1 morning line selection who will come out of the No. 7 post, as his Derby winner.



Impressed more by Sinister Minister's wire-to-wire easy triumph in the Blue Grass Stakes, Tuley originally thought he'd use that Baffert candidate as his top choice.



He waffled for several reasons.



"I didn't like that jockey Garrett Gomez chose Bob and John over him," the horse handicapper said.



Tuley noted, however, that "There's nothing wrong with Victor Espinoza (Sinister Minister's mount)," and the decision might be explained simply as a deal that evolved behind the scenes, such as a favor for someone in the pecking order.



It was, nontheless, an ominous omen.



Then 30/1 Keyed Entry, a once highly-touted 3-year-old who has seen diminishing reviews since he dueled with non-Derby contender First Samurai for honors early in the prep season, took the No. 3 post right next to Sinister Minister, also 12/1, in the No. 4.



Tuley theorized Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry will have little choice but to go "hell-bent" for the lead.



"That, along with the presence of Sharp Humor and my feeling that Lawyer Ron will gun for the front like in the Arkansas Derby -- when John McKee wasn't able to hold him back -- will set up a suicide pace on the front end," Tuley continued.



"That leaves it open for an off-the-pace horse and I think Bob and John, with Gomez aboard like he was in his Wood Memorial victory, could sit the perfect trip and get first run at the tiring leaders."



Tuley normally totally casts favorites aside.



He planned to do that with 3/1 Brother Derek, but couldn't so used him to fill out his exacta and/or quiniella.



"I really like Brother Derek and think he'll be there at the end, but won't be able to overcome the traffic he'll encounter from the No. 18 post and pass Bob and John in the deep stretch," Tuley said.



Demoting Sinister Minister to the show position or trifecta slot, Tuley expects him to be the last surviving speedster and make the board.



Completing the superfecta, Tuley predicts, will be 15/1 A.P. Warrior, a classy colt who is conditioned by John Shireffs, trainer of 2005 Run for the Roses champion Giacomo.



"Long shots that I'll have saver tickets on, in case they go off at huge odds, include Cause to Believe, Storm Treasure and Flashy Bull," Tuley concluded.


Bob & John for Johnny



Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Director Johnny Avello had a bad hair day Wednesday, which was supposed to be his day off.



But who can afford a couple days R&R with Saturday's Kentucky Derby looming largely on the horizon -- even if it was mid-week?



"I got in late and spent all day trying to make up for it," Avello said.



As the Silver State's most prominent horse (and Oscar) handicapper, he had calls from customers to answer, media requests to field, TV interviews to do, propositions and matchups to put together and, no small thing, the ESPN post position drawing to watch.



"I haven't even had time to look at the Oaks yet," Avello lamented late Wednesday afternoon.



While others have dismissed Bob and John, who will come out of the No. 7 slot in a field of 20, as just the third-best of trainer Bob Baffert's trio of Derby entrants, Avello puts the Wood Memorial winner at the top of his Churchill Downs list.



"He's consitent and I think he's ready to move up a little," Avello said.



A.P. Warrior, an A.P. Indy progeny emerging from the No. 10 hole, earned his place nod, with Florida Derby champion Barbaro, the co-second betting choice at 4/1, filling out Avello's trifecta.



Keeping up with the Jones'



Veteran Sam's Town handicapper Gordon Jones is shooting for his ninth Kentucky Derby victory in 24 years, a documented figure he says he'll match against anyone, anywhere.



"And only two have been favorites," he pointed out.



The former Los Angeles Herald-Examiner turf columnist is pinning his hopes on Illinois Derby champion Sweetnorthernsaint, whose odds notably have plummeted since Jones bought futures on him in the 40/1 to 50/1 range and began touting the horse months ago.



"The weather and jockey (Kent Desormeaux) are my concerns with him, but I have no control over either," he mused, adding that some Thoroughbreds adapt to Churchill Downs' "cuppy" track easier than others, a factor that takes on added signifigance when it rains.



Jones' second choice is Blue Grass Stakes winner and speedster Sinister Minister, a long shot and one of three horses entered by West Coast "trainer to the stars" Bob Baffert.



"My problem here is his (Beyer) ratings may be too flattering," Jones said.



"Can he get out there and hang on again at this (1 1/4th mile) distance?



"But in these two, I feel I have the best speed and best garden tripper."



Jones brushes off the three favorites: Brother Derek (3/1), Lawyer Ron (4/1) and Barbaro (4/1), declaring his horses not only are better and possess better ratings, they'll pay better prices.



"Who needs favorites?" Jones asked.



He calls the remainder of the "mediocre" field a "grab bag" and lists Baffert's Point Determined as "probably" the best of the rest.



"After the first two or three, it's a crap shoot with that many horses and all the stretch traffic," Jones advised.



"Point Determined, Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron ... almost anyone could finish third, fourth and fifth."



Jones additionally notes Earth's recent "weird weather" -- the Asian tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, global warming -- has had a negative impact on the ability of turf handicappers to nab Kentucky Derby winners because Churchill's unique surface can be so affected by weather throughout the world.



Saint leaves Field in 'Dust


Put another mark in Sweetnorthernsaint's column.



The 10/1 morning line shot also is the choice of Stardust Race Book manager Rich Wagner.



"He drew a favorable post position (11)," Wagner said of Sweetnorthernsaint, who is trying to become the second Illinois Derby champion in recent years to grab the brass ring by winning at Churchill, following in the footsteps of 2002 Run for the Roses winner War Emblem.



"I also like his jockey (Desormeux), who already has won this race twice."



Lawyer Ron, often called "The Phantom of Smarty Jones" as he attempts to duplicate the efforts of the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion, completes Wagner's exacta ticket.



The Oaklawn Park product, this season's toast of the South, lost all his turf outings, but, in a reversal of fortune, has won six in a row on dirt, including the Arkansas Derby, and is 7-for-7 on dirt overall.