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valaub 2011 The Masters week-long thread
lets get the record out of the way. 14-6-2 +44.31 unit YTD. THIS is the week we double-up, juice out, or bust for the first third of the year. My golf GOY will,as always, be on this tourney. It is an event like no other (you'll agree if you've been there) and will be bet like no other. This will serve as my thread for all golf plays this week, whether on The Masters or other events.
also, let's test and negate some theories.
- weather matters? Since the course was "Tiger-proofed" Augusta has had winners who could bomb it and winners who played strategically. Zach Johnson won his first and to date only major title in 2005. I handicap with the thought that overall weather will not be a factor. The reason I don't put much faith in weather being a huge factor is technology. Today players have the ability to change shafts and equipment fast enough that they will **basically** be hitting the same shot's regardless. Also, ANGC (Augusta National Golf Club) has technology that surpasses practically any other course on the planet. They can suction as much moisture out of the greens as they want. They can make the course setup to where even par will win or 14 under will. Weather matters NOT.
- Past performance. This is a more difficult situation. It depends on what you are basing your picks on and for. Are you betting 72 hole matchups, win props, or individual 18 hole rounds. History favors the experienced around ANGC. While many have made The Masters their first major win (Woods, Mickelson, Johnson, Weir, Immelman) few have won here overall for the first time (Zoeller, others a longer time ago....) but past winners beget past winners. Several could have the Woods/Mickelson role (Westwood, McIlroy, Kuchar, numerous others) while it would be purely guesswork to know who serves in the Zoeller role. Past performance matters IT DEPENDS.
- Hole-in-one prop. If you're looking for lightning in a bottle, look further. Not many in the tourney's history but a smaller than normal field size make this useless. #2, forget it. #6?? possible. #12 not likely even with short iron. #16?? by far most likely but will have 1/2 field by the most accessible pin. MOVE ON.
1st up this week are early 72 hole bets and top 5 props.
72 hole matches:
Brandt Snedeker (2x) -145 over Gary Woodland. Snedeker has history of good performances here and this will be Woodland's first competitive rounds at Augusta. Recent form would indicate that Woodland is the play but I will side with history and play Snedeker for 2 units.
Top 5 props:
Matt Kuchar top 5 +635. Taking value here with a guy I think could win. Kuchar has six top 10s on the PGA TOUR in 2011. Comes of a T8 in Houston. Leads the PGA TOUR in par-4 performance, and ranks second in the all-around, fourth in putting and third in bogey avoidance.
Tiger Woods +305. Taking value again. Has not finished outside the top six here in his last six appearances. Played the par 5s last year in bogey-free 15-under with three eagles. Also eagled the par-4 seventh in the final round. All-time money leader at this event is benefited by insulated environment.
Much, much more as the week continues. Adding these smilies per my daughters request.
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Originally Posted by vincanity15
