[Restrepo]

Hi All,

Footy is back

Going to try and keep this thread going throughout the year despite not keeping my A League thread up to date as i wanted.

I don't have a play for tonight's game but am going to post my Friday nights pick, as I have a stuff on tomorrow night.

Saints -5.5 @ 1.901(1 unit)

I think the Saints have been looking forward to this game all off season and will be wanting to make a statement after all the off field stuff happening around them. Geelong have a few big name injury concerns and wont risk anyone who is not 100% this early in the season.

[donkson]

I'm going the same way, will be interesting to see how Geelong go though.

[Restrepo]

I see Geelong finishing in the bottom half of the top 8 this year. It will be interesting to see how they progress under Scott and if he is going to look to blood youngsters throughout the season.

[Bic]

I think the Saints win too, just might be a bit soon to bet against Geelong, see how Geelong play under Scott first.

Good luck though.

Go Blues!

[Restrepo]

Didn't see the game but Geelong by a point. Will have the rest of the week up tomorrow morning some time, been out all night tired

YTD 0 - 1 - 0
-1 unit

[Restrepo]

Hi All,

Saints -5.5 @ 1.901(1 unit)

Unfortunately, I have a really busy weekend planed and can't do much of a write up this week. Here are the rest of my AFL plays for week 1

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks @ 1.952 (1 unit)
Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers @ 1.833(1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs (-9.5) @1.952 (1 unit)
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans @ 2.03 (1 unit)
West Coast Eagles (-7.5) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ 1.926 (1 unit)

OK im off to work

[Restrepo]

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks @ 1.952 (1 unit)
Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers @ 1.833(1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs (-9.5) @1.952 (1 unit)
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans @ 2.03 (1 unit)
West Coast Eagles (-7.5) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ 1.926 (1 unit)

YTD 1 - 2
-1.167 Units

Couple of interesting games today, are the Bombers the real deal, can they push for a top 8 spot?

Are the Dees ready to go to the next level?

I see WCE dominating the ruck here, but can there mids take it to Norths established players and give there fans hope that they are on the improve

[Restrepo]

Will be a massive effort if the Dogs are to turn this around

[Restrepo]

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks @ 1.952 (1 unit)
Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers @ 1.833(1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs (-9.5) @1.952 (1 unit)
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans @ 2.03 (1 unit) PUSH
West Coast Eagles (-7.5) vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ 1.926 (1 unit)

Really bad start for me this year, Swans give up 24 point lead going into the 4th for a push. WCE lose two players early and the line gets beat with a kick after the final siren. Hawks and Saints both give up good leads during the game

Essendon were by far the most impressive side to play this week (I missed the pies game).

YTD: 1 - 4 - 1
-3.167 Units

[Bic]

The Hawthorn and St Kilda result were the worst... What's with teams not being able to hold a lead this round?

[Restrepo]

Tonight game

St Kilda Vs Richmond - Saints under 39.5 @ $2.10

[Alt75]

I'm thinking that Saints under 39.5 is looking appealing too.

[binomial]

is that saints to score less than 39.5 or win by less than 39.5, lol.

good luck.

[Bic]

is that saints to score less than 39.5 or win by less than 39.5, lol.

good luck.

To win by less than 39.5...

Not sure I like that bet though, we're talking about last years grand finalists against a bottom 4 team. This could be a blowout.

Good luck though, let's just hope St Kilda win by 12 or more

[Bic]

is that saints to score less than 39.5 or win by less than 39.5, lol.

good luck.

Oh, I think I just got the humour in the post, lol!

[Alt75]

It went over my head too hahah, maybe if it was at the G at it was belting down rain it would be an option.

Round 21 last year Saints won by 21 against Tigers at Etihad, and Richmond were in it until the last Q.
Yeah Richmond probably have next to no chance of winning tonight but they didn't do too bad against Carlton last week. Saints should definately cover the 12 but also Tigers shouldn't get blown out by 7+ goals. I'm guessing in the 20-30 margin again.

[donkson]

I'd rather just bet the under 174.5. I really can't see the saints scoring 120+ and you'd think the tigers won't be scoring all that much either.

[Restrepo]

My thinking was that the Saints average winning margin in this game is 7 goals over there last 8 (from memory), that based on their performance last week and the Tigers performance last week I think they will hang in there. However as i type this Jack Riewoldt has just been subbed.

is that saints to score less than 39.5 or win by less than 39.5, lol.

good luck.

[Restrepo]

Tonight game

St Kilda Vs Richmond - Saints under 39.5 @ $2.10

Sigh.... another draw, 2 draws in two rounds. Will have tomorrows games up before 12

YTD: 1 - 5 - 1
-4.167 Units

[Restrepo]

Haven't had a look at the night games yet, as i am really busy at work. Hopefully can turn this bad start around today

Port Adelaide v West Coast - Port Adelaide Under 39.5 @ $2.20

I see Port winning this game but I don't see them blowing the weagles out of the water. Will be back later with tonights games

[Restrepo]

Going to throw in Pies over 15.5 @ $1.31

[Restrepo]

Port Adelaide v West Coast - Port Adelaide Under 39.5 @ $2.20
Going to throw in Pies over 15.5 @ $1.31

Didn't see the Port game but it sounded terrible on the radio, this is starting to get embarrassing but its only a few units.

Gold Coast v Carlton - Carlton Over 15.5 Points @ $1.47
Fremantle v Geelong - Geelong Under 39.5 @ $2.80

Really looking forward to watching the Suns enter the comp tonight and to see how Hunt handles himself in the big time (I really hope he plays well).

$2.80 for Geelong under 39.5 against Freo is a ridiculous price IMO, and even if the Cats get done by 50+ tonight I think this is a long term profitable bet.

YTD: 2 - 6 - 1
-4.857 Units

[StevoS]

$2.80 for Geelong under 39.5 against Freo is a ridiculous price IMO, and even if the Cats get done by 50+ tonight I think this is a long term profitable bet.

I like your thinking.

[Restrepo]

Gold Coast v Carlton - Carlton Over 15.5 Points @ $1.47
Fremantle v Geelong - Geelong Under 39.5 @ $2.80

YTD: 4 - 6 - 1
-2.587 Units

Sundays Games

Sydney v Essendon - Essendon Under 39.5 @ $2.65
Hawthorn v Melbourne - Hawthorn - 16.5 @ $1.92

First to the Sydney game, Adam Goodes is NOT a full forward and should not be playing out of the goal square (this is coming from a Sydney supporter). Longmire's refusal to send him into the middle of the ground in the last quarter against Melbourne has me worried about our chances this year.

If this game was played at the SCG i would be taking Sydney. However, at ANZ I think the Bombers will have far too much run for Sydney and will rebound very well against us.

I'm not convinced Melbourne are on the improve yet despite fighting their way back for a draw last week. The Hawks should blow them away by 3+ goals

[Restrepo]

YTD: 4 - 6 - 1
-2.587 Units

Sundays Games

Sydney v Essendon - Essendon Under 39.5 @ $2.65
Hawthorn v Melbourne - Hawthorn - 16.5 @ $1.92

First to the Sydney game, Adam Goodes is NOT a full forward and should not be playing out of the goal square (this is coming from a Sydney supporter). Longmire's refusal to send him into the middle of the ground in the last quarter against Melbourne has me worried about our chances this year.

If this game was played at the SCG i would be taking Sydney. However, at ANZ I think the Bombers will have far too much run for Sydney and will rebound very well against us.

I'm not convinced Melbourne are on the improve yet despite fighting their way back for a draw last week. The Hawks should blow them away by 3+ goals

Swans put Goodes into the middle and they win by 5 (could of waited till next week )Haven't seen the game yet looking forward to sitting down with a and watching it.

See you guys next weekend.

YTD: 5 - 7 - 1
-2.667 Units

[Restrepo]

Sorry guys about to run out of the door from work, so not much of a right up except that the blues will get smashed and found out for the pretenders they are. They haven't beaten anyone this year and I don't think they can match the Pies juggernaut.

Collingwood v Carlton - Collingwood Over 15.5 Points @ $1.56

BOL

[Alt75]

I'm liking that play too for a straight up safe & good value bet, BOL sir

[Restrepo]

[Restrepo]

Sorry guys about to run out of the door from work, so not much of a right up except that the blues will get smashed and found out for the pretenders they are. They haven't beaten anyone this year and I don't think they can match the Pies juggernaut.

Collingwood v Carlton - Collingwood Over 15.5 Points @ $1.56

BOL

YTD: 6 - 7 - 1
-2.107 Units

Saturdays Bets

Adelaide v Fremantle - Adelaide Under 39.5 @ $2.15
Richmond v Hawthorn - Hawthorn -23.5 @ $1.92
West Coast v Sydney - Sydney Under 39.5 @ $2.50

BOL

[binomial]

good luck.

i would rather take adelaide at the line. think they might smash freo.

[Restrepo]

I'm not sure they will blow them away windy, rainy and a milestone game for Pav. Plus the Crows are coming back from the bye and I am not sure how that will affect them.

[Alt75]

Well called Restrepo.
Crows are playing horridly, down by 24 in 1Q. I didn't think to check the weather in Adelaide this morning or take the bye into consideration.

[Restrepo]

If the crows kick a coupe in a row, im hoping they lift and lift the crowd. They will need to be in front by 3/4 time imo as Freo will run the game out better then them.

[benrama]

If you're watching the game there is NO chance whatsoever Adelaide will be leading by 3Q time. In fact, if they lose by less than 50 points I would consider that a good result the way they are out-classed in this matchup.

Freemantle played average against Brisbane, but only just lost to Geelong. I think they'll be an ATS covering machine like last year based on what I'm seeing today - they really have some quality players.

[Restrepo]

Luckily i am not watching the game, just listening on the radio. I will be very careful of teams coming off the bye at least for the early rounds.