[Bic]

G'day fellas...

Had a successful season last year in the AFL, and learnt a lot, so hopefully that means an even better season this year!

Have the bank spread across two bookies:

Centrebet
Bet365

Reasons are there lines are always different and can get really different numbers which can help. That and Bet365 are really slow in changing there lines...

Most of my bets will be on the sides and two team teaser multi's.

Hopefully can get some positive discussion in this thread and make $$$.

[Bic]

AFL Round 1

Current leans:

Carlton -19.5
St Kilda -6.5
Sydney +7.5
Brisbane +7.5
Western Bulldogs -10.5

[Bic]

(LOCKED) Sydney Swans +7.5 @ 1.91 x2
(LOCKED) Carlton Blues -19.5 @ 1.92 x2
(LOCKED) Hawthorn Hawks -2.5 @ 1.91 x1

[mjespoz]

Hey Bic,

GL with the picks!
What's your opinion on Centrebet? They seem to offer good AFL prices but have heard that they only accept small bet sizes.

Cheers mate.
mjespoz

[Bic]

Hey Bic,

GL with the picks!
What's your opinion on Centrebet? They seem to offer good AFL prices but have heard that they only accept small bet sizes.

Cheers mate.
mjespoz

Hey mate,

thanks for coming in!

This will be my first season using Centrebet, so far so good. Pretty clean looking site, really quick on verifying ID and accepting deposits. Haven't heard of them only accepting small bet sizes, but the only way to find out is to give it a go or to give them a call.

Cheers

[donkson]

they say the most you can win is $250k aus in a week.

So I'd say the limits aren't that low.

[Bic]

Good start to the week with Carlton winning by 20 points and covering the spread... They made it hard for themselves with poor accuracy, but well and truly dominated the game.

[kingsr]

I've had bets of 10k with centrebet with no problems. I suppose it depend on what you call big?

[mjespoz]

Cheers, kingsr. Just what I wanted to hear. Won't be placing bets anywhere near $10K.

GL all.

mjespoz

[Brian891]

Whats the feeling on st. kilda? do they win on ml? my book has them -6.5 or ml. new to this but tailed on carlton. i threw u a few points and would appreciate any advice on todays games.

[mjespoz]

I don't bet for the first 4 rounds, it's an inherent limitation of my model - but I'd put my money on St Kilda. Ling, Chapman and Mooney are all in doubt whilst St Kilda probably won't play Koschitzke... Either way it's going to be a great game to watch!

[Brian891]

thanks mjespoz! im gonna play st kilda ml, and ill be back with points for u if it hits. I hope it does.

[Brian891]

placed wager. good luck to everyone on st kildas! hopin they come out hot and get a nice win!

[mjespoz]

Good Luck, Brian. :-) Just remember that this is only Round 1 - so I hope that your wager was relatively small!

[Bic]

Whats the feeling on st. kilda? do they win on ml? my book has them -6.5 or ml. new to this but tailed on carlton. i threw u a few points and would appreciate any advice on todays games.

St Kilda should win this game.

Geelong missing Ablett, Chapman, Ling, Byrnes... They are in a semi rebuild mode and the Saints are still full steam ahead..

St Kilda have had a shocking pre season with all the off the field scandals, but have all the quality there to win the game. To back this point, I will be adding 1 unit on St Kilda -5.5, they win this game by 10-20 points.

Good luck

[Bic]

(LOCKED) St Kilda -5.5 @1.92 x1

[Bic]

Wow... Saints let a 20 point lead slip, then concede a goal in the last minute to lose the game... Oh dear...

[Bic]

AFL Round 1 Summary

(LOCKED) Sydney Swans +7.5 @ 1.91 x2 WIN 1.82 units
(LOCKED) Carlton Blues -19.5 @ 1.92 x2 WIN 1.84 units
(LOCKED) Hawthorn Hawks -2.5 @ 1.91 x1 LOSS
(LOCKED) St Kilda -5.5 @1.92 x1 LOSS

YTD: 2-2 50%, +1.66 units

[Restrepo]

Good start to the year Bic, keep it up while i lick my wounds until next week.

[Bic]

AFL Round 2

Current Leans:

Port Adelaide -14.5
Geelong +6.5 (This will get higher)
Essendon +5.5 (Pretty good value for one of the better form teams in the comp)

(LOCKED) St Kilda -11.5/Port Adelaide ML @ 2.11 x2

YTD: 2-2 50%, +1.66 units

[Alt75]

G'day, another Aussie here

Essendon should be good value.


Incase you're not aware.

Salopek out for Port.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsartic...4/default.aspx

Joel Selwood, Cam Mooney and Tom Lonergan out for the Cats.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsartic...2/default.aspx

I've tipped Eagles and Dockers in my 8 for the week, expecting both to be close games.

Do you ever pick margins or just lines?

[Bic]

Salopek makes no difference in how Port Adelaide operate... Eagles are still a young side, and are the worst travelling team in the competition. Port will win this game at home.

Yes the Cat news came in late, but interesting to note the line hasn't moved much, still have to remember Fremantle still have a lot of injuries and are underdone, not to mention coming back a long Brisbane trip, hence why I'd take the points because I too believe it will be close. I won't be playing that game, but it was just a lean I had.

Essendon are good value, purely based on form, but they were horrible at travelling last year, and won't be laying my money on a team away from home (especially interstate) when they haven't proved they can.

I usually pick lines, I had pretty good success with that last year, just making sure I don't play those 4-5 team multi's, they always seem too good to be true and usually are.

[Alt75]

Port only beat West Coast by 1 point in rd 20 at AAMI last year. Going on recent form with only a possible kick in it, it's a coin toss IMO.

I'm not making a play on Port V WCE or Freo v Cats game. I put a measly $1 on the 8 with the sportsbet tipping comp tips, as I do for every round of AFL/NRL. I'll often play a big multi of picks with $1 or $2. Usually try and find a few "sure things" a round and make small gains off singlebets, on the odd occasion all my picks are correct the $1 and $2 multi's are a nice bonus to the sb balance.

Thinking about a small play on Essendon, the +5.5 is wise with Sydney's high percentage of games that are decided by less than a goal. But as you say you want to see how they peform interstate before jumping on them, it's still too early in the season to tell where some of the teams lie in the comp, outside of Collingwood.

[maroona]

Any thoughts on tonights game, got a feeling Richmond might keep it close, they were ok last week and St Kilda were a bit disappointing, total set at about 173, it seems too low so tempted on the over but then I go back to last weeks Saints Geelong game, 95 points total!! but last time these 2 played last year they scored 209

[donkson]

Port only beat West Coast by 1 point in rd 20 at AAMI last year

WCE are missing arguably their best player, who is also their leading goal kicker by a mile, and are coming off a 6 day break from a game played in 35 degree heat.

[Alt75]

Hmm I'm having second thoughts on the WCE pick now.

Cats and Saints was at the G last week, was it wet?

@ maroona I would think the Saints will be coming out guns blazing after losing by a point. I don't think you'd see a repeat of that 48-47 game at Etihad with the roof closed unless the surface is complete crap as it was in the past. I think Saints win comfortably but am also guessing the tigers don't disgrace themself too badly. For the total the over is probably the correct play. I'd imagine a 120-95 type scoreline.

[Bic]

I honestly do not rate Richmond at all... Don't let last weeks scoreline fool you, Carlton were all over Richmond... More than double there inside 50's!!! They just couldn't punish Richmond on the scoreboard... Richmond hit the front by 2 and half goals and still managed to lose by 20 points... They have no senior players out there, it's all kids... They will get smashed tonight IMO. I prefer the under myself, but got St Kilda -11.5 in the teaser so will keep it like that. St Kilda or no play IMO.

[Alt75]

Nobody rates Richmond, not even their own fans

I grew up barracking for Fitzroy so I know what it's like for the poor buggers.

Ah yeah I noticed Carlton had like 20 behinds last week. They kick that badly did they?

Sportingbet have a Saints -15.5 for $1.48, that's reasonable value and should be free money.

Whatever bets you lay best of luck guys

[maroona]

Might just go with St Kilda -25.5 and leave the total but wouldn't be surprised to see it go over

[maroona]

Thanks for the thoughts guys, sounds like everyone's on the same side, good luck

[Restrepo]

I honestly do not rate Richmond at all... Don't let last weeks scoreline fool you, Carlton were all over Richmond... More than double there inside 50's!!! They just couldn't punish Richmond on the scoreboard... Richmond hit the front by 2 and half goals and still managed to lose by 20 points...

I understand your thinking here, but I think you will see Richmond improve the most out of the bottom sides from last year, they have a great group of kids and a pretty strong midfield. They do need to find a secondary forward option thou

[maroona]

Very surprised Richmond is still in this game, especially without Riewoldt, kinda wish I'd taken the over

[Alt75]

haha another draw... I was right on the mark about Richmond scoring 95.

I ended up taking Saints -15.5 with Manly -3 and the Broncos -12 in NRL. 0-3

Fortunately was scared off the 1-39 margin in case of a blowout. Should have just gone with the over on this game.

Oh well more fun tomorrow.

[Bic]

Wow... Richmond really surprising me, or is it that St Kilda's pre season has affected there on field performance?

(LOCKED) Port Adelaide -3.5/Carlton -7.5 @2.03 x2

[Brian891]

with u again bic on port adleaide. hope i am not a jinx again!