[daoilman]

Not wanting to clutter up Joe's thread when he's not around is why I started this thread. I'll be around a little here and a little in Joe's thread when he's around.
I'll post advice and selections when I have them, I also chew the fat about horses and racing with those that are interested or have questions.

Obviously today and tomorrows focus will be primarily on Churchill Downs and the Breeders Cup races. I may have a play at one of the other major tracks, but more about that later.

I guess I should give you guys a little bio of my self.
I have speculated on horse racing for many years, I consider my style to be abstract in that I don't use a system, I cap races by using all aspects of a horse's past performances measured against every other horse's past performances.
I use par times and pace figures, I use trouble lines and trip reports, I view replays to help prove or disprove my assumptions, I'm a student of trainer angles, always trying to uncover a trainers intent in any given situation.

Enough of that for now, lets move on to today's races. We'll start today in the 3rd, the Jimmy V Handicap, lets go take a look and see if there's a play?

[daoilman]

I looked at this race very quickly and what I looked for was class and speed, that being said the class appears to be #9 Noble's Promise, this horse is a quality router with grade 1 and grade 2 back class, the big question is can he sprint effectively?

Often you will find that when a quality router comes back from a long layoff they are anxious to run and often they will sprint well first crack, the only other question is are you willing to take a short price?

Could be a good one to start a pick 3 with.

[joeyp1222]

I looked at this race very quickly and what I looked for was class and speed, that being said the class appears to be #9 Noble's Promise, this horse is a quality router with grade 1 and grade 2 back class, the big question is can he sprint effectively?

Often you will find that when a quality router comes back from a long layoff they are anxious to run and often they will sprint well first crack, the only other question is are you willing to take a short price?

Could be a good one to start a pick 3 with.

nice job oily i used him in exacta and caught $1 ticket

[zebra58]

nice call

[daoilman]

OK, so I did get a pick 3 going, I singled the #1 Apart in the 4th race based on class and pace figures, this could be a big mistake on my part as the pace figures on the #5 Colizeo are not really that far behind the #1, I gave the edge to the #1 based on class.

[daoilman]

nice job oily i used him in exacta and caught $1 ticket

I didn't think you were going to be around Joe, I would have been over in your thread for a visit if I thought you would be there.

[daoilman]

Had to take a short price there in the 4th, but a winner is still a winner. Class prevails once again, to look at the winners past performance lines you will see that he always makes up ground in the stretch in every race, no other horse in the race can make that claim.

[daoilman]

Lets move on to the 5th, here we have a group where only two horse have gone the distance (1 3/4 miles), the rest are an unknown quantity as far as distance limitations, we can only judge by breeding and/or an overabundance of class.

Prince Will I Am is out of Cryptoclearence who was a classic contender and could run all day on the other side is Dynaformer who was a prominent turf specialist who raced well many times beyond a mile, add to the mix that the "Prince" has some obvious class as seen in his most recent start the grade 1 Jamaciah, all added together we have a possible contender.

The only other horse with grade 1 credentials is Awesome Again, this horse also has some regal bloodlines and could very easily be in the top three in finish order.

[daoilman]

That was crazy, Borel was pissed, and the horse that won was one of the two who had previously raced at the distance.

[daoilman]

I'm gonna pass on the 6th race, this group 2 year old fillies are not easy to cap under the circumstances presented, any one of these could jump up and run a big one.

Expect a big price and if your playing pick 3's I would advise you push the all button in this heat.

[daoilman]

Traffic issues for the favorite resulted in a 2nd place finish, the winner pays in the 10-1 range for the second straight race, two 20$ horses to start a pick three, anyone alive?

[daoilman]

Lets take a quick look at the 7th race.

I have two horses that have true back class, the #4 Informed Decision and the #14 Champagne D'oro, both have grade 1 back class, the #14 will in all likelihood be the favorite, the #4 on the other hand will be held at a square price.


It appears the #4 has the proper racing style, coming from off the pace in every start and gaining ground through the stretch in almost every race, add to that the trainers historic affinity with turf prospects and we have another opportunity to maybe cash a ticket on another grade 1 winner at a good price.

For some reason I thought this was a grass race. I'm losing my mind with all the drama of the day.

[daoilman]

I'm completely out of whack there, no fire from the #4 and another jump up winner at 8-1.

[daoilman]

Race 8, the BCJuvfil grade 1.

You guys will think I lost it, but based on pace and class I come up with the #5 Harlan's Ruby, although lightly race, her last race close up finish in the grade 1 Alcibiad is a key race for pace, lets see how it shakes out.

[joeyp1222]

How you doing oily i hit the 5th and 7th across the board and got screwed outa the exacta in the 5th when castellano ****** things up

[daoilman]

How you doing oily i hit the 5th and 7th across the board and got screwed outa the exacta in the 5th when castellano ****** things up

I was good early, but turned to shit late, your best bet in the 9th looks like a winner based on profile, makes for an interesting superfecta play, lets win some money.

[daoilman]

The #1 in the last race has a slight edge in pace numbers, 2 ticks faster than the #10 and #11, 3 ticks faster than the #3.

[daoilman]

Now that was whacked, they screwed the public real good with that deal, they knew the #1 was a non contender and they loaded her anyways, this had to be the most bizarre group of Breeders Cup races ever, we can only hope that tomorrow is much smoother.

[Gremlin Lad]

Now that was whacked, they screwed the public real good with that deal, they knew the #1 was a non contender and they loaded her anyways, this had to be the most bizarre group of Breeders Cup races ever, we can only hope that tomorrow is much smoother.

Johnny V.. just stole $$ out of the betting public wallet.. He should of communicated with the on -track vet......but instead he made his own decision and they loaded Life at Ten.

Where were the track stewards ???????

[daoilman]

Johnny V.. just stole $$ out of the betting public wallet.. He should of communicated with the on -track vet......but instead he made his own decision and they loaded Life at Ten.

Where were the track stewards ???????

How are you Larry? long time no see, I hope things are good in your neck of the woods.

[Gremlin Lad]

On ESPN ..the reporter interviewed MR. PLETCHER..after th Ladies Classic.... PLETCHER said" Life at Ten was working the BEST of all the horses he brought to the Breeders' Cup races."

What does that say about QUALITY ROAD in the CLASSIC on Saturday ???????? OR AIKENITE in the BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE ???? OR ROSE CATHERINE in the BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT ?????

All three of these had a excellent chance of winning until I heard that comment by Mr. Pletcher.


I hope nothing is seriously wrong with Life At Ten.


That just shows you that is why they run these races...the horses are live animals and have aches and pains also.

[daoilman]

Good morning everyone and good luck today, lets cash some tickets.

[daoilman]

I'm looking at the 1st race from Churchill, I'm seeing a couple of first out winners who are entered, those two being numbers #4 and #7, they both will take money due to their undefeated status and trainer connections, the Asmussen horse #8 will probably garner plenty of support from the public, the rest are non contenders, or are they?

Lets take a closer look at the #1 Gibson Crystal who is trained by Eddie Kenneally, this horse gets a good draw being inside with good gate speed, this horse also shortens up half a furlong while showing some sparkling workouts over the Churchill strip, what is puzzling is that last workout where he shipped to Keenland, I'm not sure what to make of that move?

Also of note with Gibson is the fact that he was claimed while moving up in company, he could of been bought one race earlier for a 5,000$ savings, knowing that the connections were willing to pay extra to gain control of this horse is encouraging from my viewpoint.

Gibson Crystal will be my play in the opener at Churchill.

[firedawg]

goodluck

[daoilman]

goodluck

Thanks for the encouragement, but the Asmussen piece is just to much, and we got no fire from the #1.

Next......

[firedawg]

rail may not be a good spot today

[daoilman]

On to the 2nd race from Churchill....

I hope this rail stuff starts to happen here in the 2nd race, Baffert, speed, the rail, shortening up a 1/2 furlong and a win with grade 3's.

The #1 Rapport is my play in the second race.

[daoilman]

rail may not be a good spot today

We should definitely know more after the second race.

[daoilman]

Close but no cigar, I got everything backwards in the second, if the #1 wins I cash the super and everything in between.

[daoilman]

The same set up in the 3rd from Churchill, speed, Baffert, inside post, shortens up in distance, a grade 2 winner.

#3 Always A Princess is my play in the third.

[daoilman]

In the 4th at Churchill the big question is "Will the addition of lasix put Master Of Hounds over the top"?

# 5 Master Of Hounds will be my play in the 4th.

[joeyp1222]

hey buddy just got back from hospital see no luck yet except i go the pick 4 going here in the 4th. hit the 13th next leg i got 1-6-8-11 then the 3 stadvinsky and #2 boys from tosconova who frankie say at saratoga that was a monster, he says lol

good luck buddy ps my brother turned for the worst today

[joeyp1222]

sitting 10th in sbr tourney oily poker

[daoilman]

See what you think of this one, today at Churchill in the 6th race, #12 Hickory Dee, can go with the pace and kick late, the trainer chose to stay in from and outside post, he could have easily scratched for inclement weather, the horse should get a clean trip form the outside post.

Good luck

Morning line 6-1/currently 9-1

[daoilman]

See what you think of this one, today at Churchill in the 6th race, #12 Hickory Dee, can go with the pace and kick late, the trainer chose to stay in from and outside post, he could have easily scratched for inclement weather, the horse should get a clean trip form the outside post.

Good luck

Morning line 6-1/currently 9-1

Never involved, hard pressed to maintain contact with the first flight, no late kick.

Ran out at 10-1.