[kdmfox]

9th Race - Saratoga - Saturday, August 25th, 2007 STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Travers S. (Grade 1). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. By subscription of $1,000 each, which should accompany the nomination; $5,000 to pass the entry box, $5,000 to start. The purse to be divided 60% to the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among remaining finishers. 126 lbs. Trophies will be presented to the winning owner, trainer and jockey. Closed Saturday, August 11, 2007 with 24 Nominations. (05:40 PM) (7)


# Horse Odds Jockey Wgt A/S M/E Trainer
1 Helsinki (KY) 20/1 Julien R. Leparoux 126 3 C L o Nicholas P. Zito
2 C P West (KY) 5/1 Cornelio H. Velasquez 126 3 C L Nicholas P. Zito
3 For You Reppo (KY) 20/1 Garrett K. Gomez 126 3 C L Helen Pitts
4 Street Sense (KY) 3/5 Calvin H. Borel 126 3 C L Carl A. Nafzger
5 Grasshopper (KY) 8/1 Robby Albarado 126 3 C L Neil J. Howard
6 Loose Leaf (KY) 12/1 Kent J. Desormeaux 126 3 C L Kenneth G. McPeek
7 Sightseeing (KY) 6/1 Edgar S. Prado 126 3 C L Claude R. McGaughey III

[yahoonino]

Street Sense Will Win By 6 Lenght

[Seattle Slew]

Maybe, but that's not his running style. He often waits on horses when he gets the lead and starts to lug in, like he did in the Derby and Jim Dandy.

The key horse I think is CP West. He's always had distance limitations, yet last out he ran really well to the end, pushing Street Sense until the last 100 yards. Either he improved or Street Sense's win wasn't as good as everyone thinks.

Horse I think can upset is Loose Leaf. Ken McPeak is a solid trainer, and this guy had an impressive allowance win at Saratoga 2 weeks ago, coming from last to win in hand when deep closers weren't faring too well.

I'll try Loose Leaf with Street Sense.

Street Sense Will Win By 6 Lenght

[RJS]

Horses all carry same weight.


1 Helsinki (KY) 20/1 Julien R. Leparoux 126 3 C L o Nicholas P. Zito

Blinkers off. With blinkers off Zito 14% win % and 45% ITM. Horses fairly consistent, but fairly consistent slow. 5th race in 4 months did not race as 2yo. Seventh Lifetime race 1st one a clunker. Improved greatly in second but no improvement since that second race in March.

2 C P West (KY) 5/1 Cornelio H. Velasquez 126 3 C L Nicholas P. Zito

Fair pattern as a 2yo. Did not show much until Pimlico May this year. Ran a great number and then bounced. Ran Saratoga in July another nice race but questioning if he’ll bounce like he did in June. Fast enough to compete and if he matches his Pimlico effort could get close.


3 For You Reppo (KY) 20/1 Garrett K. Gomez 126 3 C L Helen Pitts

1 race as a 2yo then ran a nice race second time out this year. Bounced, bounced again and then took almost 4 months off. Came back and ran worst race of the year. Pitts second race off layoff 22%. Probably 21% after this race.

4 Street Sense (KY) 3/5 Calvin H. Borel 126 3 C L Carl A. Nafzger

Monster – Took 2 months off and came to Saratoga late July and ran a nice race. Could jump forward again here and makes him very tough to beat.

5 Grasshopper (KY) 8/1 Robby Albarado 126 3 C L Neil J. Howard

I like this horse. 2 races as 2yo. Nothing special took 6 months off and ran a couple of nice races at Churchill improving very well. Came to Saratoga and jumped forward again. He pairs up that number and he could be right there at fair price.


6 Loose Leaf (KY) 12/1 Kent J. Desormeaux 126 3 C L Kenneth G. McPeek

Six races as a 2yo. This will be his 8th race as a 3yo. Improved in each of his first 4 races this year then bounced. Last 3 had improvement again in each of the 3. Slower than both Grasshopper and Sightseeing but a forward jump again puts Loose Leaf in it. Odds appear right.

7 Sightseeing (KY) 6/1 Edgar S. Prado 126 3 C L Claude R. McGaughey III

Five races as a 2yo Improving each time in first 4 and then bounced. This will be the seventh race as a 3yo and has improved to a point that should put it right there.

Crap betting race….

Helsinki and For You Reppo I have to throw out completely. Street Sense if runs its race should win by 4 or more. See CP West as competitive here but very erratic in performance. Grasshopper and Sightseeing are the next fastest to date with Sightseeing having more consistency and a little more under the belt. Loose Leaf would have to improve and might do just that. After Street Sense prefer Sightseeing with Prado. If I do bet might just be an exacta Street Sense over Sightseeing. Not a very good betting race though but will see what the odds board does.

[Seattle Slew]

Nice analysis on the race. I saw Grasshopper win at Saratoga on July 30. The field he beat was pretty weak and he had an easy time stalking the pacesetter and drawing off. Was kicking mysefl for not taking him in that race. Still looked good and has a shot if he moves forward again, but I think he's getting too much attention.

I don't like Sightseeing. I think he's been overrated all spring/summer. He has 2 wins, both at 2-5, by a nose in fields he should have crushed. He's also been beaten 3 times at less than 2-1. Closers faring better now than on opening week but I don't think he offers much value at 4-1 or less.

Not a good betting race, but I'll try Loose Leaf/Street Sense.

Horses all carry same weight.


1 Helsinki (KY) 20/1 Julien R. Leparoux 126 3 C L o Nicholas P. Zito

Blinkers off. With blinkers off Zito 14% win % and 45% ITM. Horses fairly consistent, but fairly consistent slow. 5th race in 4 months did not race as 2yo. Seventh Lifetime race 1st one a clunker. Improved greatly in second but no improvement since that second race in March.

2 C P West (KY) 5/1 Cornelio H. Velasquez 126 3 C L Nicholas P. Zito

Fair pattern as a 2yo. Did not show much until Pimlico May this year. Ran a great number and then bounced. Ran Saratoga in July another nice race but questioning if he’ll bounce like he did in June. Fast enough to compete and if he matches his Pimlico effort could get close.


3 For You Reppo (KY) 20/1 Garrett K. Gomez 126 3 C L Helen Pitts

1 race as a 2yo then ran a nice race second time out this year. Bounced, bounced again and then took almost 4 months off. Came back and ran worst race of the year. Pitts second race off layoff 22%. Probably 21% after this race.

4 Street Sense (KY) 3/5 Calvin H. Borel 126 3 C L Carl A. Nafzger

Monster – Took 2 months off and came to Saratoga late July and ran a nice race. Could jump forward again here and makes him very tough to beat.

5 Grasshopper (KY) 8/1 Robby Albarado 126 3 C L Neil J. Howard

I like this horse. 2 races as 2yo. Nothing special took 6 months off and ran a couple of nice races at Churchill improving very well. Came to Saratoga and jumped forward again. He pairs up that number and he could be right there at fair price.


6 Loose Leaf (KY) 12/1 Kent J. Desormeaux 126 3 C L Kenneth G. McPeek

Six races as a 2yo. This will be his 8th race as a 3yo. Improved in each of his first 4 races this year then bounced. Last 3 had improvement again in each of the 3. Slower than both Grasshopper and Sightseeing but a forward jump again puts Loose Leaf in it. Odds appear right.

7 Sightseeing (KY) 6/1 Edgar S. Prado 126 3 C L Claude R. McGaughey III

Five races as a 2yo Improving each time in first 4 and then bounced. This will be the seventh race as a 3yo and has improved to a point that should put it right there.

Crap betting race….

Helsinki and For You Reppo I have to throw out completely. Street Sense if runs its race should win by 4 or more. See CP West as competitive here but very erratic in performance. Grasshopper and Sightseeing are the next fastest to date with Sightseeing having more consistency and a little more under the belt. Loose Leaf would have to improve and might do just that. After Street Sense prefer Sightseeing with Prado. If I do bet might just be an exacta Street Sense over Sightseeing. Not a very good betting race though but will see what the odds board does.

[RJS]

“I saw Grasshopper win at Saratoga on July 30. The field he beat was pretty weak and he had an easy time stalking the pacesetter and drawing off. Was kicking mysefl for not taking him in that race. Still looked good and has a shot if he moves forward again, but I think he's getting too much attention.”

He had a big jump forward in that race. 4w2w and that big effort an effort at 1 1/8 might have been too much. His 2 prior at 7f and 6f were nice numbers but nowhere near his last race.

”I don't like Sightseeing. I think he's been overrated all spring/summer. He has 2 wins, both at 2-5, by a nose in fields he should have crushed. He's also been beaten 3 times at less than 2-1. Closers faring better now than on opening week but I don't think he offers much value at 4-1 or less.”

I will be watching the board at race time. That will determine my underlay but at this point and these odds I like Sightseeing because of his consistency. Out of his 6 races this year 3 were faster than Loose Leafs best effort to date. And Loose Leafs best effort was in the last race noting a possible bounce. Those odds are nice though on Loose Leaf and I might use him also. C P West is just too short at 5-1 and too inconsistent. Wish the odds were better than. We will see what the tote board does and good luck today.

[OrionSky]

Ok my TriBox

Street Sense
C P West
Grasshopper

Good luck everyone

[OrionSky]

Nice trip!