Lava Man (124 5/2) – Unbelievably consistent 3YO that was faster last year. Still great numbers great post will save ground but the favorite and I never bet favorites. Trying poly for the first time and Nakatani / O’Neill hit at 24% clip. Might use underneath as it worked last week with Tin Man and that exacta was $62.
Albertus Maximus (117 15/1) – Raced only once as a 2YO. His 6th race this year all nicely spaced but just hasn’t improved enough. He’s getting 7 pounds which helps and if he improves it might get him a check.
Sun Boat (GB) (124 6/1) – Raced twice as a 3YO, 4 times as a 4YO and has raced 6 times already this year. Has improved significantly since claimed 3 races back but his last 2 were very much improved adding the possibility of a bounce. Granted he might still improve but at 6-1 prefer others. Baze / Mitchell 27% clip.
Awesome Gem (124 15/1) – 6 races as a 3YO. It’s his 7th race this year but nicely spaced. Similar to Sun Boat in the fact that they both have run new tops in their last 2 races. But Awesome Gems numbers are about 4 lengths faster so even if he slightly bounces he’s as good as Sun Boat and at 15-1. Negative - has paired up new tops 3 times (last October, January and now his last 2) and has bounced each time after pairing up. Flores / Dollace at 21%.
Student Council (124 15/1) – Trainer change to Cerin who wins 1st race after trainer 23%. Horse extremely consistent and fast. While heavily raced as 4YO this year his races are spaced well. 3 races back on poly was 5w4w and ran a much faster race than it appeared. He runs his race he’s right there at 15-1.
Porfido (CH) (124 30/1) – I don’t get this one. Last race on poly, 6 before on turf with 2 vet scratches in there. Slow 5YO at least compared to the others. If improves still not fast enough. Well rested with Frankel 26% in this last race timeframe.
Salty Humor (124 30/1) – 5YO who fired a monster first time on poly 3 back. Bounced but then moved forward again in his last in a 2w/5w trip. Should be ready to run well again at 30-1.
Arson Squad (124 12/1) – Horse fits in here. Was very fast as a 3yo but only his 4th race this year with a February to July layoff? Solis / Headley 24% 2nd race off layoff 10%. Interesting horse.
Tiago (117 6/1) – Very nice 3yo who has improved every time but once. Has run 3 straight nice races and is getting 7 pounds here. I think there is a possibility he bounces but Shirreff’s horses are all running well.
Big Booster (124 9/2) – Heavily raced 3yo who I do not see as fast enough to fit. Finished 3rd to Lava Man but was getting 11 pounds there, not here.
A.P. Xcellent (124 8/1) – 4yo should save ground on his trip. Bounced last time out on the turf. A forward move puts him there. Sherreff Turf to poly 25%.
Time Squared (117 15/1) – 8th race this year and his last race was a major improvement. If he runs the same he is still slow. Backwards move is more likely.
Hello Sunday (FR) (124 20/1) – Needs a huge jump to compete here. Horse is very consistent just not fast. Nicely spaced races with Blanc / Frankel 39%.
I think Lava Man on the rail is tough to beat but have to try.
Throw outs are Albertus Maximus, Porfido, Big Booster, Time Squared, Hello Sunday. That still leaves a lot.
That leaves Lava Man who I think will be right there. Sun Boat I have to throw out assuming he bounces. I’m going to guess Awesome Gem could bounce but odds are too nice to completely pass on. Student Council definitely should be there as could Salty Humor. Arson Squad could be a sneaky play here but that layoff concerns me. Tiago with the weight could be there but his last 3 could mean a bounce. Another forward move is definitely possible with weight advantage. A.P. Excellent I think will be passed by on the turn by several.
Will be using definitely Student Council with Salty Humor, Tiago maybe Awesome Gem. Could throw in Arson Squad (nose depending) Lava Man underneath.
Haggis MacPherson in the 6th for a small long shot wager. With the way it's been going at Delmar today, Overextended likely should win. Forest Echoes also intriguing to me depending on the price near post.
Going to try Arson Squad in his second start off the layoff. His San Diego run wasn't as bad as it looked on paper. He made a nice run on the turn and got blocked behind horses. He didn't finish well after that however, but worth a shot if the price is right.
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