1. #36
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison View Post
    Just happy that I can add my semi-educated input and get your input!

    Another interesting one on my list is R3 Airspeed Velocity. Questioning my due diligence, but he's on my barn??
    I watched the Airspeed last race replay 5 times and proceeded to talk myself off a nice 5-1 winner. Didn't even play the TVG MBS. What a dumbbell.

  2. #37
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    so looks like going to be in the mid 90's around post time
    I remember being convinced Big Brown was getting juiced. The Belmont that year the temp was like 95 and humid. I put together a $1400 play. They scratched the horse I was planning across the board. I drove 20 of the 30 miles to the track (had to bet onsite at that time). Had the $1400 in my pocket. Stopped for lunch and talked myself out of it. Got home and Big Brown ran about a furlong if that. I promptly threw up and didn't leave my house for 2 weeks. The Super paid 2 tickets (dead heat) for 4th if I recall right. I think 90K for each ticket.

    As you can see I still haven't gotten over it.

  3. #38
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jellymancan View Post
    Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.
    Welcome to the dark side.

  4. #39
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jellymancan View Post
    Got married last night, so no time to cap the races, but Early Voting is my pick as well to wire the field.
    Just have to share this with you all: I got married 40 something years ago. Didn't have a lot of $$. Stayed at a nice ski resort in NH with no snow. I think the only other people there were some guy with a hooker. We spent the night and in the morning I told her I had an absolute lock in the 1 hole (Greyhounds) and talked her into leaving. Dog romped with $200 win on it. I knew I had a keeper at that point.

    All kidding aside GL JM.

  5. #40
    Pigpen
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    Fenwick currently 8-1!!!!! With 7.2 million in the win pool.

  6. #41
    mrginandtonic
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    Happy Jack also 8-1; SLS is 9-1.

  7. #42
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Fenwick currently 8-1!!!!! With 7.2 million in the win pool.
    amazing how all the longies are under 10-1 and Fenwick's the highest ml of all of them @ 50-1

  8. #43
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Fenwick currently 8-1!!!!! With 7.2 million in the win pool.
    The amount of $$ some people have just astounds me. I've seen 3 or 4 3/5 , 1/2 shots bet down to 1/5 today or recently alone. Crazy when most of us are worried about $100 or $200.

  9. #44
    Pigpen
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    Just made my win wager on #5. Hope he stays at 5-1.
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  10. #45
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Just made my win wager on #5. Hope he stays at 5-1.
    good call Pigpen 5/1 score

  11. #46
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    JBEX, I like your angle here. You are getting a much better price on a horse out of the Wood than I am. If I can get 4-1 or better on Early Voting I am going to play this guy. This is only his 4th race and if I am not mistaken the Preakness has historically favored speed and he should be up close to the front. Gun Runner has become one of my favorite sires. I am hoping the Derby may have taken a bit out of Epicenter or he will be tough. GL
    that's the key..wasn't expecting the spread (no pun intended lol) between him and skippy to be less than
    200%..everybody betting the longies because of rich strike .. nice call

  12. #47
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    that's the key..wasn't expecting the spread (no pun intended lol) between him and skippy to be less than
    200%..everybody betting the longies because of rich strike .. nice call
    I believe that to be a valid assertion.

  13. #48
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Just made my win wager on #5. Hope he stays at 5-1.
    Nice hit, Pigpen. Pig, sooey.

  14. #49
    Pigpen
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    Thanks gang!!!!! I along with others here were commenting on the odds minutes before post and it surprised me at the money coming in on a couple of horses I thought were hopeless. Final odds on Fenwick (13.2-1) and Happy Jack (11.9-1) looked way out of wack. Early Voting finishing at 5.7-1 was juicy. Looking at the final time (154.54) this may be a serious animal down the road. Got lucky and had the right one this time.
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  15. #50
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Thanks gang!!!!! I along with others here were commenting on the odds minutes before post and it surprised me at the money coming in on a couple of horses I thought were hopeless. Final odds on Fenwick (13.2-1) and Happy Jack (11.9-1) looked way out of wack. Early Voting finishing at 5.7-1 was juicy. Looking at the final time (154.54) this may be a serious animal down the road. Got lucky and had the right one this time.
    Pig, thx for the comments. I'll give my TWO CENTS:

    *In Sports/Horses, sometimes we see what I'll call RECENT TREND influencing market price.

    ...An example in sports might be NBA Home teams running well. Becomes so easy to knee-jerk to the Home team. Does that constitute real value?

    ...As for Horses, how many bettors felt like they REALLY missed out by not having a piece of the 80/1 on Rich Strike? Next Triple Crown race, don't want to miss out on another longshot. Like you say, those prices looked out of whack.

    Last theory I'll present on Sports/Horses. Sometimes the heavy dog odds offered are truly SHORT. Some of the soccer matchups would have to be played out 100x b4 the dog might come home. I won't claim to know much about horses, but sometimes you're just WISHING. Rich Strike's jock made it a near-perfect trip, close to the shortest trip around rail possible.

  16. #51
    Pigpen
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Pig, thx for the comments. I'll give my TWO CENTS:

    *In Sports/Horses, sometimes we see what I'll call RECENT TREND influencing market price.

    ...An example in sports might be NBA Home teams running well. Becomes so easy to knee-jerk to the Home team. Does that constitute real value?

    ...As for Horses, how many bettors felt like they REALLY missed out by not having a piece of the 80/1 on Rich Strike? Next Triple Crown race, don't want to miss out on another longshot. Like you say, those prices looked out of whack.

    Last theory I'll present on Sports/Horses. Sometimes the heavy dog odds offered are truly SHORT. Some of the soccer matchups would have to be played out 100x b4 the dog might come home. I won't claim to know much about horses, but sometimes you're just WISHING. Rich Strike's jock made it a near-perfect trip, close to the shortest trip around rail possible.
    Morning Chucky, I will agree with your theory to a point on the "recent trend". In horse racing most of the people IMO that are jumping in as a result of the Derby are smaller bettors that would make some difference but this being the second jewel of the Triple Crown the pools are huge and this market was very eye opening.

    Then again the folks that thought EV was an overlay at the price did jump in and got all they wanted and the pool was large enough to only adjust to a point. I saw EV at 8-1 early in the afternoon and started to get my hopes up that I would get 5-1 and he drifted down but not as much as I thought he would given the "will pays" on the exotics.
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  17. #52
    JBEX
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    I honestly think for the odds to be as skewed as they were yesterday you needed to have at least a $60 winner in the derby..the effect magnifies as the derby
    winner's price goes up

  18. #53
    Pigpen
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I honestly think for the odds to be as skewed as they were yesterday you needed to have at least a $60 winner in the derby..the effect magnifies as the derby
    winner's price goes up
    I agree and on a selfish note, I wish the Derby winner would have entered this race. The odds on EV would have been even better and with Rich Strike's running style I don't think he would have been a factor but you never know. Also, Epicenter did not get away very well which IMO affected his effort here. He may end up being the goods come Saratoga and the Breeders' Cup. I don't think EV goes to the Belmont from the connections quotes after yesterday's race.

  19. #54
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    I agree and on a selfish note, I wish the Derby winner would have entered this race. The odds on EV would have been even better and with Rich Strike's running style I don't think he would have been a factor but you never know. Also, Epicenter did not get away very well which IMO affected his effort here. He may end up being the goods come Saratoga and the Breeders' Cup. I don't think EV goes to the Belmont from the connections quotes after yesterday's race.
    yeah I would've taken the extra odds with rich strike risking of course him beating me..agree epicenter is a talented horse and was compromised early..not sure how much weight winning the belmont carries towards stallion fees with it's oddball distance ..A 2nd in the first 2 legs could see him being rested and waiting for the haskell or jim dandy..Probably what ev will be doing also

  20. #55
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Looks like Epicenter and Early Voting will not be running in the Belmont.

  21. #56
    Pigpen
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    Do ya think Rich Strike will get any ink before the Belmont??

  22. #57
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Looks like Epicenter and Early Voting will not be running in the Belmont.
    pigpen mentioned based on chad brown's post race comments that early voting wouldn't go..probably targeting the next logical step which would be haskell or jim dandy..believe there's a prep for the haskell (minor stakes) so possibly that first with the time in between if they choose that path.. epicenter probably deciding between those two also

  23. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    pigpen mentioned based on chad brown's post race comments that early voting wouldn't go..probably targeting the next logical step which would be haskell or jim dandy..believe there's a prep for the haskell (minor stakes) so possibly that first with the time in between if they choose that path.. epicenter probably deciding between those two also
    Yeah good points. or maybe waiting for the Travers I read also.

  24. #59
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    “Certainly a race like the Travers (G1, Aug. 27),” Brown said at Saturday’s post-race news conference. “I know it’s a tick further, but I don’t believe he will have any trouble getting the mile-and-a-quarter. The Travers would be for me, so that would be really at the top of the list.”

  25. #60
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Do ya think Rich Strike will get any ink before the Belmont??
    I think so considering skipping the preakness and the odds which he won the derby at..I hope he does
    because I don't feel a deep close in the derby at
    least in part due to a torrid early pace necessarily translates well to handling the belmont distance
    ..I'm hoping messier decides to run because I think he's a much better horse and as far pedigree,as well bred to handle the 1 1/2 miles as you can be..wrote about this in str's thread

  26. #61
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    I think so considering skipping the preakness and the odds which he won the derby at..I hope he does
    because I don't feel a deep close in the derby at
    least in part due to a torrid early pace in the derby necessarily translates well to handling the belmont
    ..I'm hoping messier decides to run because I think he's a much better horse and as far pedigree,as well bred to handle the 1 1/2 miles as you can be..wrote about this in str's thread
    Messier by Gun Runner? That was Early Voting's sire I believe?

  27. #62
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Messier by Gun Runner? That was Early Voting's sire I believe?
    messier is by empire maker who won the belmont..first 4 dam sires are also huge distance influences which I know I wrote about
    Last edited by JBEX; 05-24-22 at 08:18 AM.

  28. #63
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    messier is by empire maker who won the belmont..first 4 dam sires are also huge distance influences which I believe I know I wrote about
    ok thx

  29. #64
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    ok thx
    no problem..see if I can link that up

  30. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    no problem..see if I can link that up

  31. #66
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    messier is by empire maker who won the belmont..first 4 dam sires are also huge distance influences which I know I wrote about
    5677/84/91


    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...wers-p163.html

  32. #67
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    thx for the links

  33. #68
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    thx for the links
    no problem

  34. #69
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Hey JBEX: thx in advance. sent you a pm. In your daily travels thru the form post here or PM me a horse play whenever and I will put 150 ducks on it to win and hit you back if it scores. thx.
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  35. #70
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Hey JBEX: thx in advance. sent you a pm. In your daily travels thru the form post here or PM me a horse play whenever and I will put 150 ducks on it to win and hit you back if it scores. thx.
    thanks..I'll post it here but won't be today

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