[Easy-Rider 66]

Feel free to post your picks/thoughts on the race here in this thread. Race is next Saturday May 7th. Good Luck to All.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Derby Draw later today. see what happens.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Epicenter	+495	+450	+450	Steve Asmussen	Not This Time
Zandon	+565	+500	+500	Chad Brown	Upstart
Taiba	+635	+500	+500	Tim Yakteen	Gun Runner
Messier	+590	+500	+700	Tim Yakteen	Empire Maker
Mo Donegal	11-1	10-1	10-1	Todd Pletcher	Uncle Mo
Smile Happy	12-1	12-1	10-1	Ken McPeek	Runhappy
White Abarrio	13-1	12-1	15-1	Saffie Joseph Jr.	Race Day
Charge It	16-1	+900	16-1	Todd Pletcher	Tapit
Cyberknife	16-1	10-1	12-1	Brad Cox	Gun Runner
Zozos	23-1	22-1	25-1	Brad Cox	Munnings
Tiz the Bomb	28-1	22-1	25-1	Ken McPeek	Hit It a Bomb
Simplification	28-1	28-1	30-1	Antonio Sano	Not This Time
Crown Pride	33-1	25-1	30-1	Koichi Shintani	Reach the Crown
Barber Road	40-1	38-1	45-1	John Ortiz	Race Day
Classic Causeway	45-1	35-1	60-1	Brian Lynch	Giant's Causeway
Pioneer of Medina	55-1	50-1	80-1	Todd Pletcher	Pioneerof the Nile
Summer Is Tomorrow	100-1	100-1	60-1	Bhupat Seemar	Summer Front
Tawny Port	90-1	75-1	100-1	Brad Cox	Pioneerof the Nile
Un Ojo (g)	100-1	50-1	100-1	Ricky Courville	Laoban
Happy Jack	100-1	75-1	100-1	Doug O'Neill	Oxbow
Also eligible:
Ethereal Road	150-1		150-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Quality Road

[Easy-Rider 66]

above is the Vegas Odds for the Derby 20 before the post draw. Un Ojo is out and Ethereal Road is in.

[Pigpen]

[Pigpen]

Just killing some time here. Taking a look at pool one last November with some of the contenders in red.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Just killing some time here. Taking a look at pool one last November with some of the contenders in red.

yeah big difference in payouts expected now for sure.

[Easy-Rider 66]

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK Posts have been drawn and Morning line's assigned. Let the games begin.

[Easy-Rider 66]

One horse I am leaning towards using in the Derby as a shot is the #11 Pioneer of Medina. Breaks from the 11 hole with E/P 8 presser speed, and the shades come off. I like the shades being removed on a speed horse. While the velocity figures are a bit short he does show some good works leading up to the race. May be worth a small play at 30/1 ML.

[Seattle Slew]

I think the last Derby winner I had was Funny Cide in 2003. But here goes.

Cyberknife
Smile Happy
Zandon
Epicenter

[Easy-Rider 66]

I think the last Derby winner I had was Funny Cide in 2003. But here goes.

Cyberknife
Smile Happy
Zandon
Epicenter

yeah tough race Seattle to pick a winner. thx for the picks. good luck.

[Easy-Rider 66]

One horse I am leaning towards using in the Derby as a shot is the #11 Pioneer of Medina. Breaks from the 11 hole with E/P 8 presser speed, and the shades come off. I like the shades being removed on a speed horse. While the velocity figures are a bit short he does show some good works leading up to the race. May be worth a small play at 30/1 ML.

#11 Pioneer Of Medina 30/1
Has been forwardly-placed in all dirt tries and did well to boost his late energy with increasing negative dirt spreads with more distance when tackling graded stakes competition. Has lacked the final punch to hold off that class so far, but they'll experiment with removing blinkers here which can lead to a more relaxed first half and possibly translate to more final punch that's been missing. Questionable to work well enough to compete for top spot but could be usable in deep exotics if left as a 30/1+ shot.
Predicteform's take on Pioneer of Medina

[Easy-Rider 66]

After reading Bloodhorse article/ predicteform and looking over the form I am playing the #1 Mo Donegal as well. Where the #11 Pioneer of Medina is a speed horse Mo Donegal is a closer. 2x he has run into slow paces and won nailing a BRISNET late pace rating of 121 in the Wood Memorial and a 117 in the Remsen at AQUEDUCT. With the expected hot pace in this DERBY will take my chances with a horse that has shown the best late pace figures. He is also tied with Taiba for the best BRIS velocity number in the field at 111. He needs some racing luck for sure breaking from the 1 hole and coming from behind. But Irad is the pilot and maybe the race falls apart and he picks up the pieces. 10/1 on the Morning line. Will be interesting to see his price come post time.

[Easy-Rider 66]

#1 Mo Donegal 10/1
The immediate obstacle that jumps out is the ability to break through consecutive DTOPs. However, consider not only are lightly-raced runners more eligible to break through DTOPs than seasoned runners, but that regressive pattern also loses it's effect when the horse is allowed proper rest to recover from it. This one is stringing together consecutive races for the first time since December so could be considered fresh enough here not to be in a definite bounce spot. Also consider, this one could actually regress and STILL own a better Final Figure than the rest of the field. The Wood Memorial does not have a good record in recent years and even decades for producing Derby contenders, but I'll also say I don't remember the last time I see a New York prepper enter off an 80+ Final Figure either. They call it the dreaded "1 spot" but does it really affect this one? He was likely going to start slow and move to the inside anyways so he may actually be pre-set here for his likely tactics of hoping to find an opening late and making one big run down the stretch. If the opportunity for a closer presents itself in today's race flow, he'll offer better odds than the other obvious late runner, Zandon, and appears to be just as talented. The dynamics of dirt racing certainly make it tough on a runner like this, but he'll still rank as a "must include" for me.

Predicteform take on the #1 Mo Donegal

[Pigpen]

Thanks for posting the info ER66. I think you will get every bit of 10-1 on this guy and I truly believe he will be rolling down the lane. I think the 1 hole will help his odds and will not hinder him too much with his style. The issue I have with him on my win ticket is encountering traffic in this big field. He looks like he can run all day.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thanks for posting the info ER66. I think you will get every bit of 10-1 on this guy and I truly believe he will be rolling down the lane. I think the 1 hole will help his odds and will not hinder him too much with his style. The issue I have with him on my win ticket is encountering traffic in this big field. He looks like he can run all day.

OK Pigpen thx for your take. Yeah the #1 is up against it on some variables for sure like you wrote. But if you look at the big time late pace moves he has run he should be closing fast. see what happens.

[Easy-Rider 66]

There is a change in the Derby field. Ethereal Road is out and Rich Strike draws in.

[Easy-Rider 66]

[BOA12]

I'm going #12 Taiba. 3rd out angle.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I'm going #12 Taiba. 3rd out angle.

ok boa12. good luck

[mrginandtonic]

I’m gonna go with:

12- Taiba (my logical pick)
18- Tawny Port (my long shot pick)

Knowing me, I’m most likely gonna play the 18.

GL EZ

[Easy-Rider 66]

I’m gonna go with:

12- Taiba (my logical pick)
18- Tawny Port (my long shot pick)

Knowing me, I’m most likely gonna play the 18.

GL EZ

OK Mr. G&T thx for posting. Taiba 12/1 on ML so if that holds that's a good price as well. Good luck sir.

[Jellymancan]

Taiba will definitely be much lower than 12-1.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Taiba will definitely be much lower than 12-1.

agree

[Easy-Rider 66]

Just checked current early odds. #1 Mo Donegal at 7/1 #11 Pioneer of the Medina at 58/1 and #12 Taiba at 6/1 #18 Tawny Port 69/1

[mrginandtonic]

Just checked current early odds. #1 Mo Donegal at 7/1 #11 Pioneer of the Medina at 58/1 and #12 Taiba at 6/1 #18 Tawny Port 69/1

Lol, if my Tawny Port comes in; it will be my Pick of the Year!! $1300 for the Oaks/Derby Double!! LOL

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lol, if my Tawny Port comes in; it will be my Pick of the Year!! $1300 for the Oaks/Derby Double!! LOL

nice amount of coin there Mr. G&T. Good luck. see what goes down.

[Easy-Rider 66]

1 Mo Donegal
Trainer: Pletcher, Todd A
Jockey: Ortiz; Jr, Irad

7 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 10-1WAGERS $50,561.00

Bet Now

2 Happy Jack
Trainer: O'neill, Doug F
Jockey: Bejarano, Rafael

22 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $17,712.00

Bet Now

3 Epicenter
Trainer: Asmussen, Steven M
Jockey: Rosario, Joel

5 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 7-2WAGERS $68,898.00

Bet Now

4 Summer Is Tomorrow
Trainer: Seemar, Bhupat
Jockey: Barzalona, Mickael

46 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $8,814.00

Bet Now

5 Smile Happy
Trainer: Mcpeek, Kenneth G
Jockey: Lanerie, Corey J

14 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $27,326.00

Bet Now

6 Messier
Trainer: Yakteen, Tim
Jockey: Velazquez, John R

7 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 8-1WAGERS $48,947.00

Bet Now

7 Crown Pride
Trainer: Shintani, Koichi
Jockey: Lemaire, Christophe

16 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $23,853.00

Bet Now

8 Charge It
Trainer: Pletcher, Todd A
Jockey: Saez, Luis

12 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $30,594.00

Bet Now

9 Tiz the Bomb
Trainer: Mcpeek, Kenneth G
Jockey: Hernandez; Jr, Brian J

25 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $15,934.00

Bet Now

10 Zandon
Trainer: Brown, Chad C
Jockey: Prat, Flavien

8 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 3-1WAGERS $45,191.00

Bet Now

11 Pioneer of Medina
Trainer: Pletcher, Todd A
Jockey: Bravo, Joe

58 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $7,157.00

Bet Now

12 Taiba
Trainer: Yakteen, Tim
Jockey: Smith, Mike E

6 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 12-1WAGERS $60,009.00

Bet Now

13 Simplification
Trainer: Sano, Antonio
Jockey: Ortiz, Jose L

43 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $9,436.00

Bet Now

14 Barber Road
Trainer: Ortiz, John A
Jockey: Gutierrez, Reylu

40 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $10,107.00

Bet Now

15 White Abarrio
Trainer: Joseph; Jr, Saffie A
Jockey: Gaffalione, Tyler

10 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 10-1WAGERS $35,725.00

Bet Now

16 Cyberknife
Trainer: Cox, Brad H
Jockey: Geroux, Florent

15 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $25,647.00

Bet Now

17 Classic Causeway
Trainer: Lynch, Brian A
Jockey: Leparoux, Julien R

71 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $5,830.00

Bet Now

18 Tawny Port
Trainer: Cox, Brad H
Jockey: Santana; Jr, Ricardo

69 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $5,955.00

Bet Now

19 Zozos
Trainer: Cox, Brad H
Jockey: Franco, Manuel

38 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $10,580.00

Bet Now

20 Ethereal Road
Trainer: Lukas, D W
Jockey: Contreras, Luis

SCRWAGERS ($2.00)
21 Rich Strike
Trainer: Reed, Eric R
Jockey: Leon, Sonny

99

[Easy-Rider 66]

above is current odds for the derby

[ThaWoj]

6 horse exacta box
6 horse 50 cent tri box

Using 9,12,15,16 for sure

For the last spots leaning 1 and 8 but considering 3, 5, 19 and possibly 7

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good luck Woj. let us know what your final choice is.

[BOA12]

6 horse exacta box
6 horse 50 cent tri box

Using 9,12,15,16 for sure

For the last spots leaning 1 and 8 but considering 3, 5, 19 and possibly 7

That's a nice play the 6horse tri box Woj. GL on the Big Try. Keep the 7 or 8 IMO.

[Easy-Rider 66]

adding one more pick in #19 Zozos. Below is what Predicteform says about the horse

[Easy-Rider 66]

#19 Zozos 20/1
One of a few in here unraced at 2 and on the recent uptick trying to tackle the Derby with less experience than most. Could be some upside here as two turns led to a dramatic reversal in energy distribution going from a +8 NEG to a -9 REV. No shame in last when improving but being no match for one of today's co-favorites who was also a strong "horse for the course" in that setting. Has upside here with an unknown ceiling and speed to get position although he'll need to work his way over from the 19 post before the first turn or he could be out of it early. Interested in using on some tickets provided he doesn't show up as the "wise guy choice" with too low of odds for my liking.