1. #1
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Kentucky Derby 2022

    Feel free to post your picks/thoughts on the race here in this thread. Race is next Saturday May 7th. Good Luck to All.

  2. #2
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Derby Draw later today. see what happens.

  3. #3
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Epicenter +495 +450 +450 Steve Asmussen Not This Time
    Zandon +565 +500 +500 Chad Brown Upstart
    Taiba +635 +500 +500 Tim Yakteen Gun Runner
    Messier +590 +500 +700 Tim Yakteen Empire Maker
    Mo Donegal 11-1 10-1 10-1 Todd Pletcher Uncle Mo
    Smile Happy 12-1 12-1 10-1 Ken McPeek Runhappy
    White Abarrio 13-1 12-1 15-1 Saffie Joseph Jr. Race Day
    Charge It 16-1 +900 16-1 Todd Pletcher Tapit
    Cyberknife 16-1 10-1 12-1 Brad Cox Gun Runner
    Zozos 23-1 22-1 25-1 Brad Cox Munnings
    Tiz the Bomb 28-1 22-1 25-1 Ken McPeek Hit It a Bomb
    Simplification 28-1 28-1 30-1 Antonio Sano Not This Time
    Crown Pride 33-1 25-1 30-1 Koichi Shintani Reach the Crown
    Barber Road 40-1 38-1 45-1 John Ortiz Race Day
    Classic Causeway 45-1 35-1 60-1 Brian Lynch Giant's Causeway
    Pioneer of Medina 55-1 50-1 80-1 Todd Pletcher Pioneerof the Nile
    Summer Is Tomorrow 100-1 100-1 60-1 Bhupat Seemar Summer Front
    Tawny Port 90-1 75-1 100-1 Brad Cox Pioneerof the Nile
    Un Ojo (g) 100-1 50-1 100-1 Ricky Courville Laoban
    Happy Jack 100-1 75-1 100-1 Doug O'Neill Oxbow
    Also eligible:
    Ethereal Road 150-1 150-1 D. Wayne Lukas Quality Road

  4. #4
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    above is the Vegas Odds for the Derby 20 before the post draw. Un Ojo is out and Ethereal Road is in.

  5. #5
    Pigpen
    High On The Hogs
    Pigpen's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-09-08
    Posts: 2,273
    Betpoints: 6239


  6. #6
    Pigpen
    High On The Hogs
    Pigpen's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-09-08
    Posts: 2,273
    Betpoints: 6239

    Just killing some time here. Taking a look at pool one last November with some of the contenders in red.

  7. #7
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Just killing some time here. Taking a look at pool one last November with some of the contenders in red.
    yeah big difference in payouts expected now for sure.

  8. #8
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539


  9. #9
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    OK Posts have been drawn and Morning line's assigned. Let the games begin.

  10. #10
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    One horse I am leaning towards using in the Derby as a shot is the #11 Pioneer of Medina. Breaks from the 11 hole with E/P 8 presser speed, and the shades come off. I like the shades being removed on a speed horse. While the velocity figures are a bit short he does show some good works leading up to the race. May be worth a small play at 30/1 ML.

  11. #11
    Seattle Slew
    Seattle Slew's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-06
    Posts: 6,556
    Betpoints: 5096

    I think the last Derby winner I had was Funny Cide in 2003. But here goes.

    Cyberknife
    Smile Happy
    Zandon
    Epicenter
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/22/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/19/2022

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 09/15/2022


  12. #12
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by Seattle Slew View Post
    I think the last Derby winner I had was Funny Cide in 2003. But here goes.

    Cyberknife
    Smile Happy
    Zandon
    Epicenter
    yeah tough race Seattle to pick a winner. thx for the picks. good luck.

  13. #13
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    One horse I am leaning towards using in the Derby as a shot is the #11 Pioneer of Medina. Breaks from the 11 hole with E/P 8 presser speed, and the shades come off. I like the shades being removed on a speed horse. While the velocity figures are a bit short he does show some good works leading up to the race. May be worth a small play at 30/1 ML.
    #11 Pioneer Of Medina 30/1
    Has been forwardly-placed in all dirt tries and did well to boost his late energy with increasing negative dirt spreads with more distance when tackling graded stakes competition. Has lacked the final punch to hold off that class so far, but they'll experiment with removing blinkers here which can lead to a more relaxed first half and possibly translate to more final punch that's been missing. Questionable to work well enough to compete for top spot but could be usable in deep exotics if left as a 30/1+ shot.
    Predicteform's take on Pioneer of Medina

  14. #14
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    After reading Bloodhorse article/ predicteform and looking over the form I am playing the #1 Mo Donegal as well. Where the #11 Pioneer of Medina is a speed horse Mo Donegal is a closer. 2x he has run into slow paces and won nailing a BRISNET late pace rating of 121 in the Wood Memorial and a 117 in the Remsen at AQUEDUCT. With the expected hot pace in this DERBY will take my chances with a horse that has shown the best late pace figures. He is also tied with Taiba for the best BRIS velocity number in the field at 111. He needs some racing luck for sure breaking from the 1 hole and coming from behind. But Irad is the pilot and maybe the race falls apart and he picks up the pieces. 10/1 on the Morning line. Will be interesting to see his price come post time.

  15. #15
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    #1 Mo Donegal 10/1
    The immediate obstacle that jumps out is the ability to break through consecutive DTOPs. However, consider not only are lightly-raced runners more eligible to break through DTOPs than seasoned runners, but that regressive pattern also loses it's effect when the horse is allowed proper rest to recover from it. This one is stringing together consecutive races for the first time since December so could be considered fresh enough here not to be in a definite bounce spot. Also consider, this one could actually regress and STILL own a better Final Figure than the rest of the field. The Wood Memorial does not have a good record in recent years and even decades for producing Derby contenders, but I'll also say I don't remember the last time I see a New York prepper enter off an 80+ Final Figure either. They call it the dreaded "1 spot" but does it really affect this one? He was likely going to start slow and move to the inside anyways so he may actually be pre-set here for his likely tactics of hoping to find an opening late and making one big run down the stretch. If the opportunity for a closer presents itself in today's race flow, he'll offer better odds than the other obvious late runner, Zandon, and appears to be just as talented. The dynamics of dirt racing certainly make it tough on a runner like this, but he'll still rank as a "must include" for me.

    Predicteform take on the #1 Mo Donegal

  16. #16
    Pigpen
    High On The Hogs
    Pigpen's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-09-08
    Posts: 2,273
    Betpoints: 6239

    Thanks for posting the info ER66. I think you will get every bit of 10-1 on this guy and I truly believe he will be rolling down the lane. I think the 1 hole will help his odds and will not hinder him too much with his style. The issue I have with him on my win ticket is encountering traffic in this big field. He looks like he can run all day.

  17. #17
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by Pigpen View Post
    Thanks for posting the info ER66. I think you will get every bit of 10-1 on this guy and I truly believe he will be rolling down the lane. I think the 1 hole will help his odds and will not hinder him too much with his style. The issue I have with him on my win ticket is encountering traffic in this big field. He looks like he can run all day.
    OK Pigpen thx for your take. Yeah the #1 is up against it on some variables for sure like you wrote. But if you look at the big time late pace moves he has run he should be closing fast. see what happens.

  18. #18
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    There is a change in the Derby field. Ethereal Road is out and Rich Strike draws in.
    Points Awarded:

    Pigpen gave Easy-Rider 66 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  19. #19
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539


  20. #20
    BOA12
    BOA12's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-19-12
    Posts: 17,491
    Betpoints: 303

    I'm going #12 Taiba. 3rd out angle.

  21. #21
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    I'm going #12 Taiba. 3rd out angle.
    ok boa12. good luck

  22. #22
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,166
    Betpoints: 3132

    Iím gonna go with:

    12- Taiba (my logical pick)
    18- Tawny Port (my long shot pick)

    Knowing me, Iím most likely gonna play the 18.

    GL EZ

  23. #23
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    I’m gonna go with:

    12- Taiba (my logical pick)
    18- Tawny Port (my long shot pick)

    Knowing me, I’m most likely gonna play the 18.

    GL EZ
    OK Mr. G&T thx for posting. Taiba 12/1 on ML so if that holds that's a good price as well. Good luck sir.

  24. #24
    Jellymancan
    Jellymancan's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-20
    Posts: 2,396
    Betpoints: 7927

    Taiba will definitely be much lower than 12-1.

  25. #25
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by Jellymancan View Post
    Taiba will definitely be much lower than 12-1.
    agree

  26. #26
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Just checked current early odds. #1 Mo Donegal at 7/1 #11 Pioneer of the Medina at 58/1 and #12 Taiba at 6/1 #18 Tawny Port 69/1

  27. #27
    mrginandtonic
    mrginandtonic's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-09
    Posts: 6,166
    Betpoints: 3132

    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    Just checked current early odds. #1 Mo Donegal at 7/1 #11 Pioneer of the Medina at 58/1 and #12 Taiba at 6/1 #18 Tawny Port 69/1
    Lol, if my Tawny Port comes in; it will be my Pick of the Year!! $1300 for the Oaks/Derby Double!! LOL

  28. #28
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
    Lol, if my Tawny Port comes in; it will be my Pick of the Year!! $1300 for the Oaks/Derby Double!! LOL
    nice amount of coin there Mr. G&T. Good luck. see what goes down.

  29. #29
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    1 Mo Donegal
    Trainer: Pletcher, Todd A
    Jockey: Ortiz; Jr, Irad

    7 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 10-1WAGERS $50,561.00
    2 Happy Jack
    Trainer: O'neill, Doug F
    Jockey: Bejarano, Rafael

    22 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $17,712.00
    3 Epicenter
    Trainer: Asmussen, Steven M
    Jockey: Rosario, Joel

    5 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 7-2WAGERS $68,898.00
    4 Summer Is Tomorrow
    Trainer: Seemar, Bhupat
    Jockey: Barzalona, Mickael

    46 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $8,814.00
    5 Smile Happy
    Trainer: Mcpeek, Kenneth G
    Jockey: Lanerie, Corey J

    14 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $27,326.00
    6 Messier
    Trainer: Yakteen, Tim
    Jockey: Velazquez, John R

    7 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 8-1WAGERS $48,947.00
    7 Crown Pride
    Trainer: Shintani, Koichi
    Jockey: Lemaire, Christophe

    16 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $23,853.00
    8 Charge It
    Trainer: Pletcher, Todd A
    Jockey: Saez, Luis

    12 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $30,594.00
    9 Tiz the Bomb
    Trainer: Mcpeek, Kenneth G
    Jockey: Hernandez; Jr, Brian J

    25 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $15,934.00
    10 Zandon
    Trainer: Brown, Chad C
    Jockey: Prat, Flavien

    8 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 3-1WAGERS $45,191.00
    11 Pioneer of Medina
    Trainer: Pletcher, Todd A
    Jockey: Bravo, Joe

    58 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $7,157.00
    12 Taiba
    Trainer: Yakteen, Tim
    Jockey: Smith, Mike E

    6 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 12-1WAGERS $60,009.00
    13 Simplification
    Trainer: Sano, Antonio
    Jockey: Ortiz, Jose L

    43 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $9,436.00
    14 Barber Road
    Trainer: Ortiz, John A
    Jockey: Gutierrez, Reylu

    40 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $10,107.00
    15 White Abarrio
    Trainer: Joseph; Jr, Saffie A
    Jockey: Gaffalione, Tyler

    10 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 10-1WAGERS $35,725.00
    16 Cyberknife
    Trainer: Cox, Brad H
    Jockey: Geroux, Florent

    15 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $25,647.00
    17 Classic Causeway
    Trainer: Lynch, Brian A
    Jockey: Leparoux, Julien R

    71 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $5,830.00
    18 Tawny Port
    Trainer: Cox, Brad H
    Jockey: Santana; Jr, Ricardo

    69 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 30-1WAGERS $5,955.00
    19 Zozos
    Trainer: Cox, Brad H
    Jockey: Franco, Manuel

    38 - 1MORNING LINE ODDS 20-1WAGERS $10,580.00
    20 Ethereal Road
    Trainer: Lukas, D W
    Jockey: Contreras, Luis

    SCRWAGERS ($2.00)
    21 Rich Strike
    Trainer: Reed, Eric R
    Jockey: Leon, Sonny

    99

  30. #30
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    above is current odds for the derby

  31. #31
    ThaWoj
    hope i dont wake up tomorrow
    ThaWoj's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-09-10
    Posts: 5,757
    Betpoints: 12

    6 horse exacta box
    6 horse 50 cent tri box

    Using 9,12,15,16 for sure

    For the last spots leaning 1 and 8 but considering 3, 5, 19 and possibly 7

  32. #32
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    Good luck Woj. let us know what your final choice is.

  33. #33
    BOA12
    BOA12's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-19-12
    Posts: 17,491
    Betpoints: 303

    Quote Originally Posted by ThaWoj View Post
    6 horse exacta box
    6 horse 50 cent tri box

    Using 9,12,15,16 for sure

    For the last spots leaning 1 and 8 but considering 3, 5, 19 and possibly 7
    That's a nice play the 6horse tri box Woj. GL on the Big Try. Keep the 7 or 8 IMO.

  34. #34
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    adding one more pick in #19 Zozos. Below is what Predicteform says about the horse

  35. #35
    Easy-Rider 66
    Racetrack Television Network
    Easy-Rider 66's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-14-12
    Posts: 30,573
    Betpoints: 1539

    #19 Zozos 20/1
    One of a few in here unraced at 2 and on the recent uptick trying to tackle the Derby with less experience than most. Could be some upside here as two turns led to a dramatic reversal in energy distribution going from a +8 NEG to a -9 REV. No shame in last when improving but being no match for one of today's co-favorites who was also a strong "horse for the course" in that setting. Has upside here with an unknown ceiling and speed to get position although he'll need to work his way over from the 19 post before the first turn or he could be out of it early. Interested in using on some tickets provided he doesn't show up as the "wise guy choice" with too low of odds for my liking.

12 Last
Top