Written before the scratch.....Noting that I'll have to see what that does to the odds board. Most likely that will shorten Tin Man, Sunriver and probably put me on Jambalaya. Need to se what it does also to Danek's numbers.
Playing the horses is what started my career. Odds usually determine my bets. In turf races I love consistency and there is a ton of that with identical numbers going into this race (Jambalaya, After Market, The Tin Man, Danek). Horse with best trip most likely will win and with Sunriver most likely to jump out to the lead the other horses will have to run faster than him to beat him. Note that each path wide on a turn results in a lost length and that might mean the difference in the race. Horses that might improve include Sunriver, Stream Cat and Danek.
Jambalaya (10-1) - I like the numbers. Unbelievably consistent with 9 of its last 10 about the same effort. If he comes up with that same type of effort he's a definite contender and at nice odds. Good post should stalk on the rail and save ground. 3rd race off layoff and Day-Philips wins 20% of the time in that category. Albarado up
Sunriver (9-2) - Definite contender. Figures to be on the lead on the rail saving ground. His last 2 both on turf, he ran 1w/1w in each. Running on 4 weeks rest. His first 2 this year both were unimpressive but when he went back to turf he improved tremendously. Did his last effort take too much out of him? I don't think so as he had run faster as a 3 year old. Could slightly improve again off last.
Doctor Dino (6-1) - 11 weeks rest and 2 fair races earlier this year. A tad slow those efforts were for this race but if he improves slightly might get a check.
After Market (2-1) - Nicely spaced races this year until now coming in with under 3 weeks rest. Hot trainer but not very effective win % when last race under 29 days. Jockey/Trainer win at 29% clip. Most likely will lose some ground on stretch turn. Considering odds and the others seem just as fast with better possible trips, if he beats me he beats me.
The Tin Man (3-1) - If I bet with my heart....2 races so far this year and he's run exactly the same as he did last year. Most likely will not get any faster as other youngsters may improve. But the youngsters don't have this consistency. Espinoza/Mandella win at 24% clip. Horse has been running 2w/2w. Price is short though.
Pressing (20-1) - 10 out 11 ITM at this distance with 4 wins. Just seems a bit slow to me unless he radically improves. Slight digression in last race.
Stream Cat (20-1) - Budweiser Longshot? Ran 4 races in his 3 year old campaign. Running slightly better each time without bouncing. 9 months later BAM he runs a monster and a new top on poly. 2 weeks later slight bounce but not bad. Another nice race. 2 months later to turf and another nice number. He pairs up last one and he's in this. Has tendency to run wide at times but has legitimate shot a the right odds.
Danek (5-1) - Lightly raced European enters off 11 week layoff. May lose ground. Most likely to run a new top but going in there's a bunch that have run faster. At 5-1?
Like Jambalaya, Sunriver and Stream Cat. The Tin Man and Danek I think will run well also but are shorter. I have to throw out After Market, Doctor Dino and Pressing.
Impressive performance by Albarado and Jambalaya. I wish I'd seen this thread a little earlier. Nice plays RJS. I'll be looking out for you in the future...
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