1. #141
    JBEX
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    colonial

    R4 #1 argentic (12-1)

    a 7 yo with 37 career starts making his 3rd dirt start and today will probably be his first on a fast track..
    starts 2-4 back in the spring were over the hurdles and he showed good form..prior to that ran a couple of nice 2nds on the turf..trainer having a nice meet ..intrigued at a price






    R5 #10 aurum (9-2)

    homebred fts (I think..owners name similar to breeders) with a nice combo of pedigree and multiple works at a training center that legs you up .. trainer having very nice meet..weak field imo



    .R7 #2 continental congres (10-1)

    2yo statebred stakes..think the even run at belmont could set him up nice here..don't care that she's a maiden..homebred by an elite sire ..trainer and jockey having excellent meets


    R8 #4 mr jefferson (6-1)

    male edition of R7..same sire,trainer,jock and owner/breeder but this one's a debuter..should be very fit off the fair hill tc works


    R9 #10 pau hana (6-1)

    ran evenly behind a ridiculously slow pace last out..drops ...2 and 3 back efforts would put him right in the hunt here




    .
    Last edited by JBEX; 08-02-21 at 12:59 PM.

  2. #142
    JBEX
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    added 5

  3. #143
    JBEX
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    added 7 8

  4. #144
    JBEX
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    finished colonial

  5. #145
    JBEX
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    prarie meadows

    R8 #7 goodnightsugar (7-2) 8:00 pm

    extreme outside bias and extra half furlong should help out here



    mountaineer

    R7 #7 banx turbo (8-1) 9:30 pm

    last time he won ran an extremely similar line in his prior race.. returned in 9 days then and coming back in 8 tonight.. even the odds in that prior race were within a point of his last race and we're talking over 30-1..exits an allowance race here where the winner ran a stakes quality figure (at least on the brisnets)





    .
    Last edited by JBEX; 08-02-21 at 06:57 PM.

  6. #146
    JBEX
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    added mnr 7

  7. #147
    JBEX
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    delaware

    R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

    this was a question for str (del 4)


    jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
    who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
    ..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
    ..name hunts at some positives lol



    saratoga


    R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

    realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath


    R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

    if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
    and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now

  8. #148
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    delaware

    R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

    this was a question for str (del 4)


    jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
    who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
    ..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
    ..name hunts at some positives lol



    saratoga


    R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

    realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath


    R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

    if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
    and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now
    R2 ....careless

  9. #149
    JBEX
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    saratoga

    R3 #7 leviosa (5-2..3-1 @ 15 mtp)

  10. #150
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    delaware

    R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

    this was a question for str (del 4)


    jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
    who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
    ..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
    ..name hunts at some positives lol



    saratoga


    R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

    realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath






    R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

    if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
    and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now
    with 3 favs in order $8.77 for a dime super is a ridiculous overlay

  11. #151
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    saratoga

    R3 #7 leviosa (5-2..3-1 @ 15 mtp)
    out 9-5

  12. #152
    JBEX
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    saratoga

    R4 #6 enough love (9-2..15-1 @ 15 mtp)

  13. #153
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    saratoga

    R4 #6 enough love (9-2..15-1 @ 15 mtp)
    out @ 14-1

  14. #154
    JBEX
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    off R5

  15. #155
    JBEX
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    boldface = live

  16. #156
    JBEX
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    saratoga

    R6 #1 towering orbit (8-1..9-2 @ 20 mtp)



    was bet first out and not a terrible effort behind a very slow pace..nice pedigree and trainer is solid 2nd out..rail very good in sprints..connections include owner who is a longtime owner/breeder from as far back as I can remember..sure he'd like to notch one at saratoga

  17. #157
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbex View Post
    saratoga

    r6 #1 towering orbit (8-1..9-2 @ 20 mtp)



    was bet first out and not a terrible effort behind a very slow pace..nice pedigree and trainer is solid 2nd out..rail very good in sprints..connections include owner who is a longtime owner/breeder from as far back as i can remember..sure he'd like to notch one at saratoga
    winner $9.00

  18. #158
    JBEX
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    12 horse in R7 named "thing" and he's a half sibling to "morticia" lol

  19. #159
    JBEX
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    won't be on R8 or 9

  20. #160
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    won't be on R8 or 9
    done today

  21. #161
    JBEX
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    saratoga


    R1 #7 office etiquette (9-2)
    R2 #7 fastelle (12-1)


    R6 #8 eridromis (10-1)

    this trainer,owner and breeder has shipped here before and won with a bomb fts (this one a fts also)..this one has a real nice pedigree (win early also)..long steady string of works at fair hill training center (major) which legs them up very well..really bad jock should get you a bit of a price but even so wouldn't be surprised if this one is bet

  22. #162
    Jellymancan
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    Good luck JBEX. You can break down races really well compared to me. Do you go back and watch replays? I just have no time. Anyway, since I have time, my thoughts on your picks.

    R1- Seems to point to the #1 with pedigree, Todd's stats etc. as many of the other first timers seem mediocre at best. The #2 has some solid works. Your pick of the #7 is sensible, has the experience, cutting back, dropping in class, easier field, Stephens doesn't run many but decent results and I think he won one at the SPA this summer.

    R2- Fastelle- Dropping, faced some toughies last summer on dirt, trainer has good turf to dirt sprint stats in NY (but she's been cold aas well as jockey) For a price pick, I get it. Englehart does well in these types of races, has the #1 and #2.

    R7- I agree with this pick and will be playing this myself. Agree with everything you said (Kantharos 17% first time, trainer has hit some bombs) Ward's horse and others will be heavily bet. Just noticed 3,6,7 are scratched. He'll still be a decent price, so why not.

    Good luck today with all your picks and any others.

  23. #163
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jellymancan View Post
    Good luck JBEX. You can break down races really well compared to me. Do you go back and watch replays? I just have no time. Anyway, since I have time, my thoughts on your picks.

    R1- Seems to point to the #1 with pedigree, Todd's stats etc. as many of the other first timers seem mediocre at best. The #2 has some solid works. Your pick of the #7 is sensible, has the experience, cutting back, dropping in class, easier field, Stephens doesn't run many but decent results and I think he won one at the SPA this summer.

    R2- Fastelle- Dropping, faced some toughies last summer on dirt, trainer has good turf to dirt sprint stats in NY (but she's been cold aas well as jockey) For a price pick, I get it. Englehart does well in these types of races, has the #1 and #2.

    R7- I agree with this pick and will be playing this myself. Agree with everything you said (Kantharos 17% first time, trainer has hit some bombs) Ward's horse and others will be heavily bet. Just noticed 3,6,7 are scratched. He'll still be a decent price, so why not.

    Good luck today with all your picks and any others.




    thanks jelly..I rarely watch replays unless it's a horse I played who had a bad trip..if I ​see a comment about a bad trip I'll leave it at that although I understand watching is better



    I'll go over 1 and 2 later on as I'm pressed for time..stuff you wrote up was very good




    good luck to you also

  24. #164
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    thanks jelly..I rarely watch replays unless it's a horse I played who had a bad trip..if I ​see a comment about a bad trip I'll leave it at that although I understand watching is better



    I'll go over 1 and 2 later on as I'm pressed for time..stuff you wrote up was very good




    good luck to you also
    R1


    as you said cutback and drop in class as this was a restricted vs the last which was vs open ..1st out at mth wasn't a terrible effort factoring the slow start..agree with what you said about trainer



    R2

    weak field relative to the class level..realize favorite won but wasn't overly enamored with her going into this..she was involved in better races (as you said) and in the last according to brisnet the pace was fast ..three back
    led to the pace call in a route vs msw (2 levels above)
    which kind of lends itself to she might well sprinting ..also consider it some conditioning along the way


    realize those were on the turf and today was dirt but in a bottom level mcl race it's still significant to me




    .

  25. #165
    JBEX
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    saratoga

    R1 #5 materialize (8-1) other 2yo thread also

    pedigree on this fts* is outstanding..when I say this i am always taking into account sire/dam's sire/dam (race and progeny record)..md based trainer ships in with a horse who has been working at fair hill tc which I like..gets to race vs restricted msw's ..not sure how he qualifies for this being a homebred but whatever the case they are much easier races



    * first time starter




    R5 #2 airborne gal (8-1)

    like pedigree and works but only thing is trainer is terrible over a decent size sample with firsters (3yo)..this however will fetch a better price ... being it's the spa feel there is an extra incentive to win first out if you've got one that's capable


    R10 #2 jimmy dan (12-1) 3WP


    has shown a little life vs specials and drop should help..trainer offers lots of value with shippers and overall
    Last edited by JBEX; 08-06-21 at 03:08 PM.

  26. #166
    JBEX
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    added R10

  27. #167
    JBEX
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    del mar.. 7pm


    R1 #6 aurelian man (6-1)

  28. #168
    JBEX
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    boldface =playing live

  29. #169
    JBEX
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    saratoga


    R5 #5 big skipper (6-1..7-1 @ 17 mtp)

  30. #170
    JBEX
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    R6 pass

  31. #171
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    R6 pass
    Had the 3. Ran, no wagering. good thing, ran 3rd.

  32. #172
    JBEX
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    saratoga

    R7 #4 orglandes (10-1ml ..8-1 @ 18 mtp)

  33. #173
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    Had the 3. Ran, no wagering. good thing, ran 3rd.
    good you were off it..didn't even watch

  34. #174
    JBEX
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    saratoga

    R8 #8 bella sofia (6-1 ml ...7-2 @ 17 mtp)

  35. #175
    JBEX
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    saratoga


    R9 #4 cadillac (4-1 ml..5-1 @ 18 mtp)

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