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20+ Years of Horse Playing - Parimutuel Truths & Muses
Every horse player has accumulated knowledge, and if you've been in the trenches as long as I have, you learn some hard lessons.
This is for the newbies on the block.
#1 Lesson - I can often beat the other gamblers in the parimutuel pool.
#2 Lesson - I often cannot beat the house.
Imagine you opened a bank account, and your banker charged you a negative interest rate of 15-20%. Welcome to horse racing.
#3 Lesson - I will lose against the house AND the other gamblers, if I am consistently betting on favorites.
The reason is simple, the math doesn't work.
#4 Lesson - Speed figures give us an edge that we didn't have before.
Trust me, I remember before we had them, and they often help beat the other gamblers, but not the house.
#5 Lesson - Races where there is a lot of confusion offer a way to beat the house.
I sometimes encounter races where I suspect every horse has a good chance. The Breeder's Cup races are a prime example. For years I tried handicapping the Breeders Cup, and I finally gave up. Why? I found that I could make far more money, betting on my favorite names in those races ..... I'm serious.
Have you ever noticed how some of the best horses get the best names, whereas the claimers get crappy, simpleton names? It's no accident. The owners save their best names, or put more thought into naming their greats.
This will also help when you're trying to discern the class in a race. If I'm watching a replay of a horse’s early MDN Special Weight races, and I'm hearing all these claiming names, I know instantly that the competition is likely as lame as the names I'm hearing.
#6 Lesson - Great horses often get the very best names.
#7 Lesson - If I find I cannot handicap a race, I bet the long shots.
Sometimes it would appear, as if the racing secretary is deliberately making a filler race, very tough, for reasons which aren't clear. Those who know what I'm talking about, are probably familiar. These true gifts are for the serious horse players, who have true discipline. Take the gift.
#8 Lesson - Betting the long shots in a very confusing race, takes the discipline of a saint.
Become a saint for a few minutes, you'll be glad you did.
#9 Lesson - The big races, such as the KY Derby have so much dumb money on the table, that you can heal your bankroll for the entire year.
If you find you lose the big pool races, year after year, you should consider a different sport. This means you can't even beat the dumb gamblers. Forget beating the house.
#10 Lesson - Maiden races are often the best betting opportunities.
The reason is simple ...... confusion and dumb money. Remember what I wrote above, about names?
#11 Lesson - Horses are often dirtied up by the trainer. What I mean by "dirty" is the trainer will sometimes enter a horse into races where the surface or distance are not opportune to their ability. These are also called "training races."
A great recent example is Maximum Security's Pegasus Stakes race. Let's face it, some of the owners want odds too. It's part of the trainer's job ... to get odds by causing confusion.
#100 Lesson - Dumb money is the key.
Without it, you will lose your bankroll ...... Desperately look hard for dumb money situations, such as over bet favorites. This is how you too, can beat the house.
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Originally Posted by leetreaper
