1. #1
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    del mar and saratoga 2018

    del mar... wednesday

    R1 carville (8-1)

    87/34%/ +8%... claiming races
    44/32/ +166% !! ..repeat winner
    16/56% !! / +96%.. clm repeater
    81/28%/ even ..overall

    big speed bias in routes here and he wired a field at golden gate last out where the pace was about 12 lengths fast !! his final figure faster than par for this race.. understand it was on the poly track but still put it all together


    R2 gray admiral (12-1)

    broke his maiden in his 2nd career start and 1st try at 2 turns on the turf.. he was a length off a 7 length faster than par pace in that race.. slow breaks from the rail in next two starts and feel his last sprint line is a nice setup to stretch out off.. trainer excellent and very profitable with this move over 27 race sample

    R3 #2 ketos (4-1)

    besides the fact he's won here I like that he won off a 53 week layoff 5 back.. then off for 4 months
    and 2 bad efforts followed by two 2nd's in his last 2 races.. big pace figures I those.. claimed by jacobson who's excellent first off the claim and even better with claim drop downs.. 7 lb bug never hurts with front end speed and huge rail bias in dmr sprints (and he's excellent overall rider)..should get by rail horse inside him easy

    other thing that's really amazing (no handicapping significance) is the sire and dam sire have the exact (to the 10th) sire production index..both avg winning distances within a 10th of each other ..never see that again more than likely unless we have another stormy atlantic out of an end sweep mare

    R4 blueberry princess (8-1)

    hopped start in debut and ran evenly.. trainer excellent numbers in applicable categories and at least the top 2 horses in that debut race came back to win.. 3 solid works since that race including his last bullet of 80 at 4f at santa anita


    R5 ritzy a p (7-2)

    R6 giant influence (5-1)


    5 and 6 don't lend themselves to write ups for me



    R7 splashy kisses (20-1)

    want to avoid the obvious ones.. not knocking those who would take a stand with one of them but if anything maybe mine would be a good one to play in 2nd and 3rd in exotics

    obvious

    hollendofer $1M firster...
    run big in debut but didn't win ( 2 horses)..
    peter miller 100k firster..

    mine..

    cost a lot for pedigree..
    dam sire breeders cup sprint winner..
    solid not spectacular works..
    doug o neil not particularly good with firsters but it is opening day at del mar


    R8 arawak (6-1 )

    class,versatility (different tracks), excuses for bad efforts (multiple bad posts and tough trips).. very competitive but I land here





    R9 aurora d'oro (10-1)


    not sure how they could assign 10-1 ml on this one?? I realize broke his mdn vs 20k claimers last out but pace figures final figure good and did it at this distance...outside post and speed very good at this distance and this guy has both.. bejarano and o'neil 4/15 last 60 days


    R10 blitzkrieg (12-1)

    like everything (or at least lots) but the jockey
    Last edited by JBEX; 07-18-18 at 01:28 PM.

  2. #2
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added 5 6 ... do rest tomorrow

  3. #3
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    ambitious...finished

  4. #4
    trytrytry
    All I do is trytrytry
    trytrytry's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-13-06
    Posts: 23,503
    Betpoints: 273605

    R5 ritzy a p (7-2) like this one Day 1 also


  5. #5
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    Quote Originally Posted by trytrytry View Post
    R5 ritzy a p (7-2) like this one Day 1 also


    just looked at it again.. didn't notice this before but leading up to his n1x alw win was a very close 3rd then 2nd . then ran over his head vs stakes horses twice.. then back to allowance 3rd then 2nd (all these alw races <= half length from winning) and a GIII at GG sandwiched between.so he should be set up for the win here.. the negative he'll probably be an underlay but went with him anyway

  6. #6
    trytrytry
    All I do is trytrytry
    trytrytry's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-13-06
    Posts: 23,503
    Betpoints: 273605

    if no scratches think he will be be 3-1, that fits in this field.
    looking over some of your others here.

  7. #7
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added only one I left out .. R3

  8. #8
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    interesting numbers day... the indiana grand stakes horses that I wrote up in STR's thread.. both #4 both (8-1) and both bred owned and trained by same folks ..spi's exactly the same in R3 this track and last but not least turned on tvg at 2:45..it's channel 245 on my cable..hopefully good omen

  9. #9
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    del mar R8 winner paid $24.80.. not me of course

    brinkerhoff blinkers off

  10. #10
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    del mar

    R1 #4 watch me burn (3-1)
    R2 #8 welldidyougetit (9-2)
    R5 #4 joejoe's kingdom (7-2)

    R8 #9 charming slew (20-1)
    R8 #3 unusual gold (20-1) half unit
    Last edited by JBEX; 07-19-18 at 10:45 AM.

  11. #11
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    finished dmr

  12. #12
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    saratoga


    R1 #4 turco bravo (12-1)
    R2 #10 back examiner (5-1)
    R3 #8 fortythreeoeight (8-1)
    R4 #8 eagle pass (6-1)
    R5 #4 winandyouringin (9-2)

    like the combo of price vs pedigree (which includes dam and progeny record with stallion fee).. 290k a lot considering this.. also geared more towards sprinting with trippi on the bottom.. casse/geroux excellent duo


    R9 #6 andina del sur (8-1)

    well bred horse put forth 4 solid efforts to start her career and going to give her a reprieve for the
    ashland on the dirt.. brushed gate in last off 2 month layoff and returns in 6 weeks ..she should be able to compete with what's in here and value should be there

    R10 #7 shamsaan (10-1)

    ships up from maryland with a long fair hill workout in tow prior to that.. he's a first time gelding and taking the blinkers off.. was a mclaughlin horse that was privately purchased I'm assuming as the breeder is shadwell farm.. dropping from allowance could see a wake up vs n2L claimers
    Last edited by JBEX; 07-20-18 at 03:05 PM.

  13. #13
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added saratoga 9 10

  14. #14
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    del mar

    R2 #6 adios cali (15-1)
    R3 #5 helen's tiger (6-1)
    R4 #1 catch fire (10-1)
    R6 #2 hey sal (10-1)


    R8 cold exacta 34..guessing $10
    Last edited by JBEX; 07-20-18 at 07:17 PM.

  15. #15
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added dmr 4 6

  16. #16
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added dmr 8..done

  17. #17
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    saratoga


    R2 #6 my macho (10-1)
    R3 #4 rally cry (5-2)
    R4 #4 war cabinet (8-1)
    R6 .. $2 ex box 56 ... $1 tri 56/2/56

    R7 #4 hello don julio (5-1)
    R9 #6 chase greatness (8-1)
    Last edited by JBEX; 07-21-18 at 03:13 PM.

  18. #18
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added R7..will be playing 6th

  19. #19
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added 6

  20. #20
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    mistook 2 for 1 above. In triple

  21. #21
    pimike
    SPORTS IS MONEY
    pimike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 37,099
    Betpoints: 90300

    Give me your best Del Mar today.


  22. #22
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    Quote Originally Posted by pimike View Post
    Give me your best Del Mar today.


    will look pimike

  23. #23
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added R9

  24. #24
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    Quote Originally Posted by pimike View Post
    Give me your best Del Mar today.


    R10 #1 dearborn (8-1)

  25. #25
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    still early enough in these meets..all plays in this thread from here on out will be maiden races (from these two tracks)..enjoy handicapping them the most and want to focus on them exclusively. ..plays will be made well in advance when possible

  26. #26
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    ok ..let's begin the all maiden voyage


    R2 #2b glaze (10-1)

    debut at 5f looks like a mott leg stretcher to prepare for the route.. stakes placed dam has produced 2 turf winners and with what else is running in here should offer value


    R5 #6 wooderson (6-1)

    half to rachel alexandra taken up multiple times last race in his first attempt at a route at mth.. slow pace didn't help either.. rebid at gulfstream in his debut dropping back to 3rd in a sprint before coming again and missing by less than a length


    R7 #3 french empire (6-1)

    like her line in debut at a mile on the turf to cut back to 7f on the dirt.. especially with the fast pace figures of that race


    R10 #8 that's speightful (12-1)

    another mott with a useful sprint under her in debut.. but this one probably more of a tightener than the other R2.. pedigree better on this one also imo. btw the other was a stupid pick.. outside posts on the outer turf course are horrible.. got sidetracked because she was part of the 2 entry



    del mar

    R7 #7 she's my gem (20-1)
    Last edited by JBEX; 07-22-18 at 01:34 PM.

  27. #27
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added R5

  28. #28
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added 7

  29. #29
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added R10

  30. #30
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    added dmr 7..that'll do it

  31. #31
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    going to start a new thread tomorrow since i'm switching to maidens only at these two tracks..realize I started and ended another thread not too long with the same theme.
    this one will just be selections with occasional short writeups..no betting amounts or strategies or record keeping

  32. #32
    pimike
    SPORTS IS MONEY
    pimike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 37,099
    Betpoints: 90300

    Just arrived at Del MR...

    Looking at 3rd race and on...

    Good luck to us.

  33. #33
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    Quote Originally Posted by pimike View Post
    Just arrived at Del MR...

    Looking at 3rd race and on...

    Good luck to us.
    wow ..i'm envious pimike..going to be a maiden only thread from now on and I know I have one later on in R7..try to find one more and not necessarily a maiden...gl today

  34. #34
    pimike
    SPORTS IS MONEY
    pimike's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-23-08
    Posts: 37,099
    Betpoints: 90300

    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    wow ..i'm envious pimike..going to be a maiden only thread from now on and I know I have one later on in R7..try to find one more and not necessarily a maiden...gl today
    Sounds good!

    I’m sitting at Club 8b right at the finish line!!!

  35. #35
    JBEX
    JBEX's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-02-12
    Posts: 20,382
    Betpoints: 9416

    Quote Originally Posted by pimike View Post
    Sounds good!

    I’m sitting at Club 8b right at the finish line!!!

    only been there once 26 years ago.. live in ny.. beautiful place

    I'm going with #3 swing thoughts (3-1) in R5

    he ran a similar race to his last in his debut and followed up 28 days later with a solid 2nd.. back in 24 today and gets the needed drop instead of. coming back vs specials.. only cost 7k so they'd be more than happy to win here on the drop to mcl 50's.. price will be a little light but angles are strong

12 Last
Top