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Rider's W/P/EX Plays Part 2
Going to start a new thread here and track all plays. Last thread ended up at 73.2% ROI. Not good and hope to improve here. This will be small base units. More in line with how I play. Most I will risk on any one race is $20. That includes w/p and any possible exactas. Will post ROI on daily basis. Saratoga and Del Mar start in Mid July, and looking forward to those meets. GL.
Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 06-15-18 at 01:06 PM. Reason: Changed max bet per race to $20
Delaware R1: 3 E lizzy $2 w/p $2 box 3/5
3 scored ex no dice Pays $7.20Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66
Belmont R1: 9 Souperfast $4 w/p $1 box 3/9
2nd ex no dice pays $7.20
Belmont R2: 3 She's a Black Belt $3 w/p $2 box 3/5
no good 5 scored
Belmont R3: 6 Double Cast $4 w/p
3rd
Belmont R4: 10 Scripted $4 w/p $2 box 9/10 $2 box 10/12 The 10 is cold on the board but has run some decent races at this level on dirt. Bad race last on the slop, moves to the sod where her breeder ratings are better than dirt ratings. Taking a small shot at 10/1 ten minutes out.
Winner ex no dice Pays $90.80
Belmont R5: 9 Panic Attack $6 w/p $1 box 4/9 $1 box 8/9
no dice 8 scored
nice hit.. have to find out how they do their turf ratings.. sire is 9% over a relatively small sample and the dam sire is 12% over a large one.. the dam sire should not factor in as heavily because he's an extra generation removed.. yet they give this horse a big 113 with no question mark meaning the sample size on top is enough.. I use % to make pedigree decisions but guess I'm missing something..must have something to do with the female family.. if you find any info on this let me know
OK will do. His 113 for turf breeder rating was 1 main reason I used him. Thx.
Belmont R6: 10 Heyitsnricopalazo $4 w/p Key the 10 in $1 box with 3/6/11 Like the move to outside post here. Broke form inside posts first 3 starts. Has speed expect Cohen to send. 10/1 2 minutes out.
faded no good 6 scored 3 in second
explains the pedigree ratings.. seems like a better way to evaluate it
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/stati...e=pedigreerate
Thx, Yeah the horse I played R4 had a 109 for dirt and 113 for turf. Gave me reason to think he may run better on the turf.
it says look for the difference in addition to high ratings.. but when they explain how they're made definitely seems more advanced then just using %
Belmont R7: 4 Puffery $3 w/p Key 4 in a $1 box with 3/8/9
no good
Belmont R8: 1 Cartwheel $4 w/p
3rd
Belmont R9: 8 Cetara $3 w/p $1 ex box 8/10/11
Glad you had to same horse. I played her also, but not because of her turf rating. From what I see in DRF, her turf pedigree, like JBEX, said is only so so. However, her running style and turf pedigree is much better suited for turf sprint. If this race was a route, I probably would not have used her. I also had the 11- Hit a Provisional, her turf pedigree is actually much better than the 10- Scripted. Trainer has good numbers for 1st start and 1st turf. Nice exacta payoff. Didn't have the trifecta though which pissed me off. Anyways that's just my take on this race.
Anyways, GL in your new thread and I think you will do well. I am not posting much but I still play from time to time when I get a chance.
Winner ex no dice Pays $84
Nice hit again on the 8, I know you will succeed in this thread.
Thx for checking in. Yeah according to the BRIS the 10 had a 113 for turf breeding and the 11 had a 102. I guess different opinions. Good call on the exacta. Will look for your posts. Trying to be in + territory like your thread.
Thx Mr. G&T. Hopefully this thread with it being more realistic will be more successful.
Risked $114/Returned $189.20
Belmont R1: Damselfly $2 w/p
out of $$
Belmont R2: 9 Mobridge $3 w/p
Winner Pays $21.30
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