Originally Posted by
mrginandtonic
For our first race, I am going to pick the feature race of the week, The Arkansas Derby.
Race 11: Arkansas Derby (1 mile 1/8 Dirt)
5- Magnum Moon looks really tough, he has tactical speed and has the highest and most consistent Beyer figures. I think it may be foolish to try to beat him; but I’m gonna try anyways. I think the pace of this race will determine the determining factor of this race. There are several horses that might go to the lead. Looks to me Magnum Moon and Solomini will have company much of the way. For 1 1/8 mile , the 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8 all have similar running style. So I’m not sure how these two favorites gonna do being pressed in the front and maybe going wide. I like two horse from Asmussen that come from behind. I’m gonna take the 4- Dream Baby Dream (ML 15-1) over the 9- Combatant (even though I picked him to win The Rebel). Magnum Moon maybe just too talented, but with his odds, I’m gonna pass. As for 5-Solomini (ML 2-1), he actually has an upside to this race because he is more midpack and this will be second off layoff and he is by Curlin (Smart Strike) and Surf Song (Storm Bird) and trained by Baffert. So his odds will probably be too low also. But if his odd is around 3-1, I might put a few $ on him too.
JBEX race of the week:
Race 8- The Northern Spur ( 1 mile 1/16 Dirt)
My pick for this race is the 3- Higher Power (ML 8-1). He lost all chances last out when shuffled back in the start. I think he needs to be up closer, with a cleaner start and stalking the 1, 4, 5, he should be able to make a run at them turning for home. Trainer Von Hemel has good numbers with 2 off 45-180 days @ 21%.
I might also put a few $ on the 7- Ego Trip. I don’t usually bet on horses that just broke maiden, but this horse costs $600k and he is out of Bernardini (A.P. Indy) and With Sugar on Top (Unbridled’s Song). He also has a stalking trip style. He should be sitting just behind the 3, and if he is any good, he should be rolling late. He is also 8-1 for the ML. Santana is riding the favorite which is understandable, his replacement, Saez is just as good if not better.