1. #1
    JBEX
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    an observation from a result today

    gulfstream R3

    race :35K claimer for 3yo
    winner paid $22.40


    jockey (jan 2017) 9%/578 mounts
    trainer (same) 8%/103 starts
    last race :same level
    when:3 weeks ago
    odds:31-1
    finish: 3rd by less than a length
    distance last race:6f
    distance today: 6.5

    have seen this happen all too often..a horse runs a solid race last out at the same level and distance and surface and track conditon .. if the jockey trainer combo is below average often the horse will go off at overlay odds especially if he went off at big odds in his previous race..if it was castellano and chad brown this horse would probably be 3-1..that's not giving the actual combo enough credit imo
    Last edited by JBEX; 02-23-18 at 05:48 PM.

  2. #2
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    gulfstream R3

    race :35K claimer for 3yo
    winner paid $22.40


    jockey (jan 2017) 9%/578 mounts
    trainer (same) 8%/103 starts
    last race :same level
    when:3 weeks ago
    odds:31-1
    finish: 3rd by less than a length
    distance last race:6f
    distance today: 6.5

    have seen this happen all too often..a horse runs a solid race last out at the same level and distance and surface and track conditon .. if the jockey trainer combo is below average often the horse will go off at overlay odds especially if he went off at big odds in his previous race..if it was castellano and chad brown this horse would probably be 3-1..that's not giving the actual combo enough credit imo

    if I see any of these going forward I'll put them in here.. exact rules will be

    <= 30 day rest
    <= 2 lengths from winning
    <= 10% rider
    <= 10% trainer
    distance within 1 furlong of the previous race same class, surface and track condition
    Last edited by JBEX; 02-24-18 at 09:52 AM.

  3. #3
    JBEX
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    gulfstream

    R1 #2 cousin tino (15-1)

    so close to qualifying gonna give him a mention..jockey 9% and trainer 12% BUT 10/179 (6%) at the current meet so that's good (or bad ha ha)enough for me..odds last race 52-1

  4. #4
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    gulfstream

    R1 #2 cousin tino (15-1)

    so close to qualifying gonna give him a mention..jockey 9% and trainer 12% BUT 10/179 (6%) at the current meet so that's good (or bad ha ha)enough for me..odds last race 52-1
    NO respect from the public. Now 30/1 4 out.

  5. #5
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66 View Post
    NO respect from the public. Now 30/1 4 out.
    finished 6th by 11 lengths but 10 lengths separated 1st from 3rd..amazingly went off almost exactly the same odds at 51.8 -1..this is a good example thought imo ..he should not be thus price off his last race..his last figure was as good as anybody in this race and no respect at all..will keep putting them up when I come across them

  6. #6
    JBEX
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    tampa bay

    R4 #10 el mayito (4-1)

    jock 276/6%
    trainer 23/4%
    2nd by half length last race..
    odds 22-1

    think he'll be higher odds..knocked heads on the front end all the way around and pace according to brisnet was 3 lengths faster than par

    easy..these don't count towards my roi unless they wind up in my main thread
    Last edited by JBEX; 02-28-18 at 09:35 AM.

  7. #7
    Kike Anderson
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    Also love the #10 in Race 4. Though, I don't think he will be higher odds. Expect 9/5 here, unfortunately.

  8. #8
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kike Anderson View Post
    Also love the #10 in Race 4. Though, I don't think he will be higher odds. Expect 9/5 here, unfortunately.

    i meant higher than 4-1 morning line but should have explained it better..went off 8-1.. no good anyhow

  9. #9
    JBEX
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    just want to point out a good example of this working at gulfstream today.i picked another horse in my thread in this race..it actually just misses qualifying but very much in the spirit of the rules

    GP R6 #5 paid $58.60 to win

    last race

    *3rd by 1.75 lengths
    state bred oc16n1xot

    *today's race

    clm 30kb (conditioned claimer)

    I looked at the pars for the pace figs and this race just a shade quicker..it's close to a parallel move..

    *jock this meet.. 135 mounts /9% wins
    *jock since 1/2017.. 583 mounts/13%
    *trainer this meet.. 13 starts/23% wins
    *trainer since 1/2017.. 72 starts/7% wins

    when you consider everything this is very close to a play imo..without going into detail this horse has a close 3rd at 62-1 and 19-1 (also 3rd and both within 2 lengths) within his last 10 races using this method..having observed this casually for many years do believe it's an edge angle long haul..people undervalue a recent solid effort if the connections are below average

  10. #10
    JBEX
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    gulfstream thursday (only play there)

    R6 #9 the other cat (12-1)

  11. #11
    JBEX
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    there was a great example of this today and I forgot to post it..at least in this thread as i did include him in my now defunct p6 (my top 3 boxed was the triple $254 for $2)

    the 2nd place horse was 24-1 and missed by a neck..

    today: 3yo @5f turf clm 25k
    previous: mdn clm 20k @ 5f turf..he won

    jock:121 mounts /7% wins
    trainer: 416 starts/ 4%wins
    last race:23 days ago

    so a definite qualifier
    Last edited by JBEX; 03-16-18 at 04:06 PM.

  12. #12
    JBEX
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    parx

    R1 #3 i'm truly blessed (15-1)

    came in 2nd by 2 lengths last out at this level (mdn clm 15k) ..gained 3 lengths in the stretch @ 5.5f and today is going 6f..trainer 6% and this is jockeys 2nd ride both since
    Jan 2017..he's not listed as a bug which I don't get but guess he's just been away for a while..last race 2/27..making this horse 15-1 is simply ridiculous and goes to show how little respect bad jt combos get

    the 2 and 3 posts are really bad in park sprints so maybe that factors in but he did break from the 2 hole last out
    Last edited by JBEX; 03-20-18 at 09:24 AM.

  13. #13
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    parx

    R1 #3 i'm truly blessed (15-1)

    came in 2nd by 2 lengths last out at this level (mdn clm 15k) ..gained 3 lengths in the stretch @ 5.5f and today is going 6f..trainer 6% and this is jockeys 2nd ride both since
    Jan 2017..he's not listed as a bug which I don't get but guess he's just been away for a while..last race 2/27..making this horse 15-1 is simply ridiculous and goes to show how little respect bad jt combos get

    the 2 and 3 posts are really bad in park sprints so maybe that factors in but he did break from the 2 hole last out
    haven't heard officially but looking at the radar probably be no racing because of the snow.. still it's a good example

  14. #14
    str
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    haven't heard officially but looking at the radar probably be no racing because of the snow.. still it's a good example
    Parx has cancelled today due to the deadly injury to jockey Jose Flores in yesterdays last race.

    He is on life support as of now but has has extensive cranial and spinal injuries per the racing form.

    He is not expected to live.

    So terribly sad. He leaves a wife and a seven year old son as well as two grown sons.

  15. #15
    JBEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by str View Post
    Parx has cancelled today due to the deadly injury to jockey Jose Flores in yesterdays last race.

    He is on life support as of now but has has extensive cranial and spinal injuries per the racing form.

    He is not expected to live.

    So terribly sad. He leaves a wife and a seven year old son as well as two grown sons.

    wow that's terrible!! seen his name in the PP's for years.. really puts things in perspective and makes you realize how dangerous an occupation jockey's have

  16. #16
    JBEX
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    tampa bay

    R7 #7 card spun (12-1)
    R9 #6 glory ride (30-1)**

    **picked a different one in today's selections but this is a system horse

  17. #17
    JBEX
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    oaklawn

    R9 #10 tre lee devine (20-1)

    santa anita

    R5 ##1 victoria falls (9-2)
    Last edited by JBEX; 03-22-18 at 11:39 AM.

  18. #18
    JBEX
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    added play santa anita

  19. #19
    JBEX
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    parx

    R1 #6 princess rose (5-1)

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