gulfstream R3
race :35K claimer for 3yo
winner paid $22.40
jockey (jan 2017) 9%/578 mounts
trainer (same) 8%/103 starts
last race :same level
when:3 weeks ago
odds:31-1
finish: 3rd by less than a length
distance last race:6f
distance today: 6.5
have seen this happen all too often..a horse runs a solid race last out at the same level and distance and surface and track conditon .. if the jockey trainer combo is below average often the horse will go off at overlay odds especially if he went off at big odds in his previous race..if it was castellano and chad brown this horse would probably be 3-1..that's not giving the actual combo enough credit imo