[Pmaynard19]

I'm getting better at narrowing down the field to 2 or 3 possible winners. But it seems no matter what I do I can't make the right decision when actually betting these horses. My question is, what can I do to help nail down a decision or is there any advice or rule of thumb that can be applied when I've done all my homework and watched rplays, noted the track bias and conditions and so forth but still have 2 or more possibilities? I get so confused at this point I end up doing some stupid WPS combo that sux. Today for example I handicapped 4 races narrowing the fields down to 2 or 3. 3 out of the 4 I had winners in my top 3 and in 1 I had the 2cnd and 3rd. I ended up betting these all wrong and not making squat lol. Sorry for the length of the question but I wanted to explain as much as I could. Thanks in advance for any input.

[JBEX]

I'm getting better at narrowing down the field to 2 or 3 possible winners. But it seems no matter what I do I can't make the right decision when actually betting these horses. My question is, what can I do to help nail down a decision or is there any advice or rule of thumb that can be applied when I've done all my homework and watched rplays, noted the track bias and conditions and so forth but still have 2 or more possibilities? I get so confused at this point I end up doing some stupid WPS combo that sux. Today for example I handicapped 4 races narrowing the fields down to 2 or 3. 3 out of the 4 I had winners in my top 3 and in 1 I had the 2cnd and 3rd. I ended up betting these all wrong and not making squat lol. Sorry for the length of the question but I wanted to explain as much as I could. Thanks in advance for any input.

If you have 3 contenders narrow it down to 2..just win bet and if there's a big odds disparity put a higher % on the lower odds horse...if you're betting 20 on both horses combined do a $1 exacta box also

[Pmaynard19]

Thanks Jbex, that makes sense to me. I will try to narrow done a bit more and do what you said. I appreciate the advice.

[JBEX]

Thanks Jbex, that makes sense to me. I will try to narrow done a bit more and do what you said. I appreciate the advice.

no problem

[str]

If you like three horses, find the one you think has the best chance to run 1,2 and put the other two horses top and bottom to the horse you singled out.

33% less expensive than boxing all three.
Make smaller plays until you feel more comfortable with it .

Not a perfect set up but it's another angle when you are stuck with three horses.

Good luck.

[Pmaynard19]

Thanks STR. Not sure I follow though. Just to make sure. So if I have 3 horses. 1,2,3. I think number 1 has the best chance to win or place so I put a play on 2 to win, 1 to place, 3 to show? Just wanted to check. Thank you again.

[JayTris07]

Play a P3 or P4 and go 3x3x3 = $27 for $1 or 3x3x3x3 = $40.50 For $.50. Also rolling doubles.

[Heppy10]

i think thats what makes horse racing so hard to make money in, its easy to pick the winner its hard to bet it. Ive had the same problem as you for 20 years it never gets easy. You know how many times iv had the winning triactor or super written down and not even bet it. Hind sight is always 20/20 majority of the time you will of had the winner but not of made any money, get use to it

[str]

Thanks STR. Not sure I follow though. Just to make sure. So if I have 3 horses. 1,2,3. I think number 1 has the best chance to win or place so I put a play on 2 to win, 1 to place, 3 to show? Just wanted to check. Thank you again.

No.

If you like the 1 the best, play a 1-2 exacta box and a 1-3 exacta box.

A 2 dollar box with each is 8 bucks. OR, 1 dollar each, which is 4 bucks, OR, 2 dollar exacta with the 1-2 and a one dollar exacta on 2-1. And repeat the same amounts with the 1-3 and 3-1. That's 6 bucks total. Whatever fits your budget and keeps it fun. And remember to always watch the replay and try and learn from that.

It's simply a way to play your picks but have less invested per race.

If it comes in 2-3 , oh well.
That is IF you can honestly separate a "best chance" horse. Don't force that though. Sometimes you just cannot.

As long as you honestly feel as though you know more at the end of the month than you did at the beginning, then too me, you are on the right track.

You can also do 2 win and one place on your best pick if you want to and not any exacta. For me, I would not do more to show, like 3. It's just too much % investment for too little a return IMO.

Hope that helps.

[Pmaynard19]

No.

If you like the 1 the best, play a 1-2 exacta box and a 1-3 exacta box.

A 2 dollar box with each is 8 bucks. OR, 1 dollar each, which is 4 bucks, OR, 2 dollar exacta with the 1-2 and a one dollar exacta on 2-1. And repeat the same amounts with the 1-3 and 3-1. That's 6 bucks total. Whatever fits your budget and keeps it fun. And remember to always watch the replay and try and learn from that.

It's simply a way to play your picks but have less invested per race.

If it comes in 2-3 , oh well.
That is IF you can honestly separate a "best chance" horse. Don't force that though. Sometimes you just cannot.

As long as you honestly feel as though you know more at the end of the month than you did at the beginning, then too me, you are on the right track.

You can also do 2 win and one place on your best pick if you want to and not any exacta. For me, I would not do more to show, like 3. It's just too much % investment for too little a return IMO.

Hope that helps.

Ah ha, got it!. Yes thus helps a lot. Thanks for your time.

[Pmaynard19]

Another question if I may.
When or if someone like Pletcher or Brown gives up a horse in a claiming race why in the world would the experts or whatever pick that horse as favorite the next race? I may be really naive here but how much better can a horse get going from one of these guys to someone else. Just curious. Thanks.

[Pmaynard19]

i think thats what makes horse racing so hard to make money in, its easy to pick the winner its hard to bet it. Ive had the same problem as you for 20 years it never gets easy. You know how many times iv had the winning triactor or super written down and not even bet it. Hind sight is always 20/20 majority of the time you will of had the winner but not of made any money, get use to it

I'm beginning to see that lol. But I think I can do a better job of narrowing it down a bit and making the right decision. I'm getting some awesome advice and pointers on here and I've only been at it a month or 2 so I can't complain. I know I can't pick them all and walk away a winner every time but as long as I'm learning and having fun I'm good.

[str]

Another question if I may.
When or if someone like Pletcher or Brown gives up a horse in a claiming race why in the world would the experts or whatever pick that horse as favorite the next race? I may be really naive here but how much better can a horse get going from one of these guys to someone else. Just curious. Thanks.

Do not think in these terms. It can be costly.

The claiming game is a complex one. I am sure I have at least several long discussions about that in my thread.

Try a word search in my thread of claiming, or move up, or declensions or stealing.

But the bottom line is please do not assume that if those guys lose a horse in a claiming race , nobody can win and or improve the horse.

That is incorrect.

As for ML favorite stuff, it is usually because the horse has back class. I would not put much of any stock in the morning line either.

I wrote all about this as well.

A word search in my thread for Clem Florio or morning line or 8-1 might help you find that one.

I know they are both in there somewhere.

[Pmaynard19]

Do not think in these terms. It can be costly.

The claiming game is a complex one. I am sure I have at least several long discussions about that in my thread.

Try a word search in my thread of claiming, or move up, or declensions or stealing.

But the bottom line is please do not assume that if those guys lose a horse in a claiming race , nobody can win and or improve the horse.

That is incorrect.

As for ML favorite stuff, it is usually because the horse has back class. I would not put much of any stock in the morning line either.

I wrote all about this as well.

A word search in my thread for Clem Florio or morning line or 8-1 might help you find that one.

I know they are both in there somewhere.

Understood. I will check you thread closer. Thanks again.

[darrell74]

Play a P3 or P4 and go 3x3x3 = $27 for $1 or 3x3x3x3 = $40.50 For $.50. Also rolling doubles.

right idea right here

what I do is in a pick 4, find the race that single a clear winner
i.e.: 3x3x1x10=$30 on a .50cent ticket(last race is all)
Essentially, you are handicapping 2 races

Horse Racing Rule: Favorites win 30% on average

[darrell74]

Also, if I'm betting to win one race
I need to watch the the pre race trot to the track

Sometimes you can throw out a horse by the way it walks out to the track
(tail wags too much, ears curled, bad attitude, head bows too low, only one that struggles to get to the racing track, etc...)

[Pmaynard19]

Thanks for all the good info and advice. It's much appreciated.

[sshz]

It has been shown that pick 3's give you the most bang for the buck these days, especially since many tracks now have them for $.50.........so, going three horses deep in 3 races would cost you all of $13.50. I can't tell you how many $200-$300 cashes I've had playing this way. For a novice who can narrow but has problems deciding, this is the perfect way to approach it (for now).

[Pmaynard19]

It has been shown that pick 3's give you the most bang for the buck these days, especially since many tracks now have them for $.50.........so, going three horses deep in 3 races would cost you all of $13.50. I can't tell you how many $200-$300 cashes I've had playing this way. For a novice who can narrow but has problems deciding, this is the perfect way to approach it (for now).

Nice info here. I will definitely use this strategy and see how I do. Thanks.

[sshz]

So, how did the Pick 3's work out for you?

[Pmaynard19]

So, how did the Pick 3's work out for you?

They are working pretty damn well. I have had some luck with them and surprisingly I have been able to use it on more than one track. I usually play Belmont but I'm getting some experience on different tracks and the p3 plays help me out on these when I just can't pick strait winners. Thanks again.