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Saratoga + Del Mar
Mostly Saratoga but still got a week to go until they're off at the spa.
Del Mar opening day
Race 1
7-Tribal Again 8-1(current odds on these 3 horses)
3-Successful Runner 3-1
9-Accelerant 8-1
Race 2
6-Veiled Heat 6-1
7-Radish 2-1
3-Coco Smooches 8-1
Race 3
10-Preacher Roe 8-1
2-Sir Cal 20-1
8-Anatolian Heat 9-2
Race 4
1-Drover Crazy 9-2
Race 5
1-Moon Over Paris 8-1
5-La Boheme 6-1
10-Cover Song 5-1
GL Mike. Look forward to your picks.
Alright screw Del Mar
I'll be back when Saratoga opens
Looking forward to it Mike
Day 1
Saratoga
Race 1
Should give us a good read on how the track is going to be if not just for the card, maybe early on in the meet. If Jet Black , Yakov , and to a lesser extent More Zen Tea make up most of the trifecta at 1 1/8 then speed rules. I'm going the other way hoping for a deep Spa track that takes some bottom. 8-Sinistra 12-1 is the only horse in the field with a win at the distance which came at sar also the only horse with a win at Saratoga. 5-Thirst For Glory and 6-Beyond The Green would be the representatives for horses with "bottom". 1-Clifton Pleasure ran huge last out and could be thrown in with the 5 and 6 for stamina horses but this is the toughest race he has ever been in making start #26. Won't be surprised when C Brown and Javier beat me the very first race with a 10-1+ winner Battle For Evermore but 0 for 6 on dirt + not fast on speed figs. Can't question C Brown's placement of his stock though so a little scary. More Zen Tea scares me the most.
8-Sinistra
5-Thirst For Glory
6-Beyond The Green
Race 2
I'm going to leave this race alone being the first baby race of the meet and no blue blood horses. Never heard of Guy Smith but he has hit with 41% of his firsters in the last year where ever he trains. He has 5-Messer Misfit but no way I would take 9-2 knowing nothing about him or his tendencies.
Race 3
4-Dynamo Flotilla 8-1 got gelded and ran the race of his life in a last out win. Maybe taking his manhood did the trick and he repeats. 7-Chubby Master 12-1 goes route to sprint which falls in line with my stamina theory but J Sharp not that great with the move although very good with many other applicable angles. Think you have to include 2-Chipit 2-1 on the drop from allowance company for Pletcher.
4-Dynamo Flotilla
7-Chubby Master
2-Chipit
Race 4
I don't see how 2-Sentiero Italia 8-5 doesn't win for Kiaran if all is well with her. She lays over this field on class and figs dropping into this allowance from 5 consecutive G1s or G2s. Seems like Kiaran is just giving her a confidence builder.
Race 5
Mike Maker is a sharp trainer , especially on turf and 1st off the claim. So the fact he brings 1-Elementsofharmony 10-1 back up in class 1st off the claim raises my eyebrows. Plus he trains everywhere , even Ellis Park. So up in class at Saratoga has to be a positive sign. Linda Rice is also out of this world with all angles applying to 6-Marnesia Big Girl 4-1. Could go about 5 different ways on the third but I'll try bomb 5-Siralen 20-1 who is making only 4th start after progressing each of first 3 and Geroux/Stidham are a potent combo.
1-Elementsofharmony
6-Marnesia Big Girl
5-Siralen
Race 6
Another baby race but Pletcher has the 1 and 1A entry . He has made these 2 year old races at the Spa his personal stat filler. 1A-Jumby Bay may be more likely to route down the road but any Pletcher can be a monster this early. If I take a stab it will be with 7-Special Risk 8-1. Really got going toward the end of only race which was at 5f. Gets another 1/2 furlong and Irad had a chance to test her out.
Race 7
Another race like the 4th. 5-Apologynotaccepted 2-1 doesn't lay over the field like Sentiero Italia but ran 2 big sprints then tried routing. Cuts back to sprinting in 4th start. There is quite a bit of speed in this small field so pace may burn out the front end. 2-Takrees 4-1 and 1-Anna Rae 6-1 would benifit greatly should that happen.
Race 8
Pretty much everyone in the field is a lot faster than 8-Fun 20-1. I Wilkes never wins with firsters though so Fun winning 1st out means a lot more than with other trainers. Wilkes is 10x better 2nd out and adds lasix. Horse also finished fast and might get a fast pace. 9-Harlands Thunder 10-1 gets 1st lasix too for Mott. Would use those 2 in 3 horse ex box if I do one.
8-Fun 20-1
Race 9
Could go a million different ways in the G2 Lake George. 9-Outsider Art 15-1 has gotten better and better with each start and Sheppard is great turf trainer. Exacta will probably pay well but can't decide on 3.
9-Outsider Art 15-1
Race 10
5-Market Strength and 2-Arch Contender are the obvious horses dropping in half. 11-He's One Wild Dude 4-1 is the fastest on figures but achieved it at this level. whoever Horacio DePaz is , he wins . He starts 6-Come Around 20-1. Not sure if he can swim in these waters though. Stidham and Geroux team up again on 7-Brotherly 15-1. Only 1ster in the field s a 1/2 to turf monster Regally Ready and along with the 6 are the only ones getting 1st lasix. Not sure how I'm narrowing this down yet.
7-Brotherly
5-Market Strength
2-Arch Contender
11-He's One Wild Dude
Day 2
Saratoga
MLs aren't up yet.
Race 1
Pletcher drops two from allowance into the 25kn2l. Probably very tough to beat. Roman Revival and Afleet Martini are the alternatives.
Zamjara
Roman Revival
Afleet Martini
Race 2
Oscar Performance is a 1/2 to good turfer Oscar Nominated and B Lynch is better than average with 1st timers in a turf route. One Of A Kind and Our Stormin Normin both go dirt to turf for the 2nd career start after getting what looks like a prep on dirt. Both trainers(Kenneally and Casse) are excellent 2nd start and very good turf trainers.
One Of A Kind
Our Stormin Norman
Oscar Performance
Race 3
Five horse field for the Samford isn't very appealing. Random Walk , Bronson, and Bitumen all look likely to to improve significantly 2nd out. Bronson may be headed for turf if this doesn't work out but it is Pletcher. The alt to Bronson is Zartera.
Random Walk
Bitumen
Bronson
Race 4
Chomsky tries sprinting for the first time in a long time and also drops into a mdc for the first time in a while after being fairly competitive in msw.
Chomsky
Race 5
Just going off recollection but seems like C Clement is one of very few trainers who go route to sprint on turf well. Big Rock has never been shorter than 7f and comes into this from 1 1/16 but Cristophe knows his turf horses. Need to see how they bet it to narrow this one down. Lord Of Love, Cort , and Rootformejustin all come out of a very good race. Canadian Flyer beat two of them last time they met and Altar Boy goes for what should be a deadly combo this meet of Jose Ortiz / L Rice.
Big Rock
Race 6
Pletcher and C Brown start their battle for 2 year old msw supremacy this race. Both have 1st timers who are probably well ahead of most their age. Royal Copy makes 2nd start for D Wayne Lukas. He has been hot and cold all around the last couple years. This one finished up good 1st start and looks to be training forwardly from debut. Have to see the betting here also before locking into anyone.
Race 7
Ascend hasn't done much wrong in 8 start career getting win or place 6 of the 8. Oathkeeper drops out of maybe the toughest turf race in the USA this year that Flintshire put on a show in. Could be much better than that last place run would suggest.
Oathkeeper
Ascend
Race 8
Hoping for a decent price on Wyeth. Improved 32 points from start 1 to start 2. Only needs 5-10 points here to be tough but if he gets bet because of Javier and C Brown will have to reconsider.
Wyeth
Race 9
A couple triple crown runners in My Man Sam and Tale Of Verve will likely be the key players. This is My Man Sam's first race since the Kentucky Derby. Could get a good price on Johnny V/Pletcher runner Conviction because of it.
Conviction
Race 10
The G1 Diana features 4 C Brown runners and 2 Pletchers accounting for 6 of the 10 horses. Onus goes 3rd off layoff for Shug and is 4 for 4 on firm turf while 0 for 3 on anything softer.
Onus
Race 11
May be a negative but this is by far the easiest field Winter Springs has ever seen in 15 starts. C Brown gets a perfect rating Allowance to claiming but he gets perfect ratings with almost every angle. It's a little puzzling why he is in this 25k claimer.
If not for the Pletcher Fun would of won pretty easy at 22-1. Finished 2nd which put me ahead for good in the 1K on derby wars. Chalked out the last 2 races though to maintain lead. Cashed 6 of the 7 races for a $77.50 total.
Congrats to Slim Pickens too. Finished 3rd in that tourney catching that bomb for place money in the finale. Poor guys that were 3rd and 4th for a while got passed by 4 guys that picked the bomb(6) and bubbled the money.
Last edited by mikemca; 07-22-16 at 05:44 PM.
Happy to see you post again mikeOriginally Posted by mikemca
Lost my motivation to handicap properly. Saratoga brought the excitement back.
If the track plays like it did today for a while , good things are coming.
7/23 saratoga and mon mouth
07-22-2016, 09:43 PM
SARATOGA
r1---1-3-4-6
r2---7-9-1-5
r3---2-1-5
r4---3-9-8-1
r5---5-8-9-1
r6---5-6-1-10
r7---4-2-3-1
r8---1-2-6-3
r9---3-1-2-6
r10--7-4-2-10
r11---3-10-6-1-2 best bet 3/10-6-1-2
MONMOUTH
r1---5-4-1-2
r2---1-5-4
r3---6-2-3-4
r4---3-2-6-7-1 price on 3
r5---4-3-9-1
r6---3-2-6-1
r7---7-9-4-8
r8---6-3-4-1
r9---6-7-3-1
r10--5-4-6-7
good luck
[QUOTE=joeyp1222;26036392]SARATOGA[/QUOTe
r1---1-3-4-6
r2---7-9-1-5
r3---2-1-5
r4---3-9-8-1
r5---5-8-9-1
r6---5-6-1-10
r7---4-2-3-1
r8---1-2-6-3
r9---3-1-2-6
r10--7-4-2-10
r11---3-10-6-1-2 best bet 3/10-6-1-2
MONMOUTH
r1---5-4-1-2
r2---1-5-4
r3---6-2-3-4
r4---3-2-6-7-1 price on 3
r5---4-3-9-1
r6---3-2-6-1
r7---7-9-4-8
r8---6-3-4-1
r9---6-7-3-1
r10--5-4-6-7
good luck
sorry mike for my mistake of posting in your thread i was looking at your thread and accidently posted mine in yours instead of my own. it was a long day for me friday and was very tired i wish you the best today and hope we both cash a few good ones.
Congrads Mike, looking forward to your plays as the meet goes on
Good call race #5 with the #5 Big Rock. Had the #8 who lost the bob.
Tailing #8 @ Saratoga. $10 across!
GL
Day 3
Saratoga
Race 1
Jacobson's Entry is going to be close to unbeatable if the 1A stays in. Lays over the field on figs. The only bright spot is all the speed which the 1A is part of. Could be too good anyway. The 2 uncoupled Jeremiah Englehart's are the closest thing to closers in the field. Rate 7-Western Tryst 12-1 slightly better than 5-Branded Hand 15-1.
1/1A Entry 8-5
7-Western Tryst 12-1
5-Branded Hand 15-1
Race 2
Chalking out again with fave and 3rd choice in 8-Teresa Z 3-1 and 6-Angelo's Ashes 5-1. Each has had at least one start but as for the others you never know with 2 year old firsters going a turf route. For prices throwing in Rimanisempreforte 12-1 and 5-Grand Banks 20-1 underneath. Realism is 1/2 to Emollient and Courtier but Mott usually is looking further down the road and won't have her cranked to win first out.
8-Teresa Z
6-Angelo's Ashes
1-Rimanisempreforte
5-Grand Banks
Race 3
Would love to start picking prices but think this one is between the 3 faves for yet another short price. I'll go with 2nd choice 4-Bird Song 3-1. 1-4-6 in some order
4-Bird Song
Race 4
Tired of chalk so going to beat the I Wilkes favorite with some 1sters. Don't know who J Abreu is but 7-Woodville 6-1 has been training at Saratoga since May 10th. That's a long time to point for a maiden race. 6-Squeezed 6-1 is a 1/2 to a few OK horses and Levine is above average with 1sters. Think Kimmel may have had hopes of debuting 4-Barbie On A Budget 4-1 at the Spa last year as a 2 yr old so a little concerning that just making start #1 today. Like the 6 she is a 1/2 to some pretty good horses and Kimmel is better than OK with 1st timers.
7-Woodville
6-Squeezed
4-Barbie On A Budget
Race 5
Now we finally get to the part of the card where I'm probably crazy but think a few bombs have legitimate chances. 1-Sweet Nkosi 20-1 last two 5 1/2 turf races ,which were only 4 and 5 starts back, would crush just about everyone and one would be in the mix for winning. They were at KEE so it's not like they were just big figs against lowly turf sprinters at Parx. Plus now that she comes into this off 3 straight races at PID muddies the form to joe public. Not the most likely but a lot of positives for a 20-1 shot. Then for exacta box possibilities 3-Angie's Prim Lady 10-1 goes for sharp trainer Al Stall coming off 4 straight races that would be competitive here. Pairing those two with either the 2 or 6.
1-Sweet Nkosi
Race 6
C Brown literally laps the field in these turf routes at SAR winning more than double what everyone else has since 2013. Going to have to take a stand against him for the most part . Otherwise just falling in line with the majority and betting underlays. Especially when he has more than one entry. In that same time frame B Cox laps the field a few times over ROI wise albeit a small sample with him. He is 4 for 9 though with 472% roi. 6-Sassy Little Lila 10-1 makes 2nd career start of a 7f sprint. She is better bred to route , Cox excels with a lot but 2nd start very much , and 4 of the 7 she is a 1/2 to have been borderline stakes quality.
6-Sassy Little Lila 10-1
Race 7
This race is a perfect example of why Saratoga is so hard to handicap. You have the majority of the field dropping out of graded stakes or allowance races into the 40k claiming turf route. A drop that could produce a big jump in performance or could be because the horse is going bad. A race that leaves you dizzy wondering which way is up and which is down. I prefer 8-Arctic North 12-1 making 2nd start off a 285 day layoff and coming out of a race finishing just behind Ascend and Adirondack Dancer who made of 2/3rds of the trifecta yesterday with Ascend winning. Will just roll with the 8 but if I had to pick others the next would be 4-Captain's Affair 12-1. He looks the most appealing on paper out of the whole field and A Delacour may be my favorite turf trainer. The public hasn't caught on to how good he is yet. However until horses from Pimlico turf and the Maryland/Delaware circuit start winning up here I have to side elsewhere. Then 7-Abtaal 10-1 who goes for another trainer J Sharp who is good everywhere but here. Took this horse from Kiaran last fall at SAR in a 50k claimer which he won, tried a few allowance races and now brings him back here for 40k. Lastly the aformentoined B Cox and his astronomical roi have a 20-1 shot in 11-Late Night Lu. Could do worse than stab at him. Could make a case for the whole field and this race write up has balooned long enough.
8-Arctic North 12-1
Race 8
Man there is a ton of speed in this race. Day after Day for Hushion/J Ortiz would be my best bet on the card at 8-1 but looks like a need the lead horse who is the speed of the speed where everyone wants the lead. Got some more sneaky horses based on assumptions so probably end up looking like an azz. Assuming 10-Big Mara 8-1 can overcome what trainer A Ronen lacks she is one of a few that aren't gunning for the front. Making 2nd start after winning debut for trainer that doesn't do that often. Plus had trouble in that race which could of resulted in the speed fig not being that great. Horses often make the biggest 1 time improvements of their careers from start 1 to start 2. Assuming 12-Black Betsy 15-1 was transferred to Kiaran's barn so that he could teach her to rate and assuming 1-Here Comes Rosie 20-1 runs one of her good races 2nd off 1/2 year break. J Englehart probably surprised me the most with how well he does at the spa.
10-Big Mara
12-Black Betsy
1-Here Comes Rosie
Race 9
Still not sure about this race. C Clement's best attribute has always been turf/3rd off the layoff. 6-Quest 15-1 is a big price for a horse of his with that angle and while she is a bit slow on figs she is lightly raced with room to grow.
Race 10
Let me see...4-5 on Songbird or 6-5 on Carina Mia...no thanks
Race 11
Maybe 3-Bankers Holiday 6-1 can get under appreciated jock K Carmouche a win at SAR.
[quote=joeyp1222;26037048]SARATOGA[/QUOTe
r1---1-3-4-6
r2---7-9-1-5
r3---2-1-5
r4---3-9-8-1
r5---5-8-9-1
r6---5-6-1-10
r7---4-2-3-1
r8---1-2-6-3
r9---3-1-2-6
r10--7-4-2-10
r11---3-10-6-1-2 best bet 3/10-6-1-2
MONMOUTH
r1---5-4-1-2
r2---1-5-4
r3---6-2-3-4
r4---3-2-6-7-1 price on 3
r5---4-3-9-1
r6---3-2-6-1
r7---7-9-4-8
r8---6-3-4-1
r9---6-7-3-1
r10--5-4-6-7
good luck
sorry mike for my mistake of posting in your thread i was looking at your thread and accidently posted mine in yours instead of my own. it was a long day for me friday and was very tired i wish you the best today and hope we both cash a few good ones.
NP Joe , GL this meet
thx...Royal Copy finished 2nd next race or would of been a nice double
Thanks mike
Last edited by harthebar; 07-24-16 at 11:05 AM.
Hey Mike have you ever played at Horse Tourney's.com? They are similar to DW, but their cap is $64 vs. $50 for DW. That may play into your long shot strategy. They have some nice Lockdown games for $12 entry fee. I am in one today with top prize $650. Going to give your plays a look.
Giving your plays at Saratoga a spin today in a lockdown game. GL.
Gl...the way i handicap is pretty much a contest mindset. Find a winner 95% of the other people won't have. Imo that's the best way to play contests. When you hit then you're in a good position to win. Playing the logical horses might seem to be more consistent but I think you need way more things to go right that way where you end up beating 25 to 100 people.
Never played horse tourneys. Thought i checked it out a couple years ago and it was all feeders/qualifiers to get into other live tournaments.
Yeah it's different now as they have regular games up as well. Solid site along with DW. Thx for the picks. Hopefully we will score.
Day 4
Saratoga
Race 1
Good luck trying to find a price in this 6 horse field. Think it's almost certain the winner comes from 1-Girl Talk 8-5 , 2-Verve's Tale 9-5 , or the "price" 3-Crystal Wave 4-1. McLaughlin has gotten off to a fast start by my count 3 for 4 unless I missed one and Girl Talk is getting better the further she goes. Making 3rd career start after starting at 7f , then a 1 turn 1 1/16 at Belmont. Now ready to pop going 2 turns at Spa. Verve's Tale looks like a professional runner up in the making finishing 2nd or 3rd all 6 starts so for Pick 3 and Pick 5 could get away with just the 1,3 if squeamish about singling the 1.
1-Girl Talk
3-Crystal Wave
2-Verve's Tale
Race 2
1-Taran Taran is the wild card. While with Baffert the horse broke it's maiden with a performance that could win some graded stakes. That was off 1 year and 1 day layoff. Ran one more race and hit the bench again. Now comes back for 4th start 2 and 1/2 years later in the Jacobson barn at rock bottom. Who knows what to make of it. I like 4-Howie's Tiz 10-1 cutting back from 1 mile. Was knocking heads with some good horses in much tougher fields than this for most of career. Has been ITM 2 of last 3 , just needs that breakthrough. C Baker is a good trainer without the name recognition. He runs 6-Boomerang Tony 6-1 1st off the claim as a new gelding. One angle he is very good at is first off the layoff which applies here. Then it's either the wild card 1 or the favorite 8-Grey Glory 2-1.
4-Howie's Tiz
6-Boomerang Tony
1-Taran Taran/8-Grey Glory
Race 3
Your guess is as good as mine this race. Pretty confusing race for a 6 horse field. So many of them taking huge drops in class. 3-Pinstripe won 2 of 3 allowance starts by blowout for Pletcher now drops into a 25k seller off the bench? I'll try 2-Patton Proud 4-1 going turf to dirt and route to sprint for M Maker. Only 2nd start in his barn and 1st start on dirt.
2-Patton Proud
Race 4
No idea which way to go here so leaning on my new found fascination with J Englehart. I don't know why it surprised me how well he does here. Thought him and Chris Englehart got all their stats from Finger Lakes. So 8-Cansomebodyplease 6-1 is my horse.
8-Cansomebodyplease
Race 5
C Brown most likely continues his turf route dominance dropping 12-Laurel Heights 9-5 from MSW to this maiden claimer. A move he hits at close to 50%(12 of 25)!!! Can shove some prices in with him though. 6-Brookly Gal 20-1 is my alternative . Looks like she got a dirt sprint prep just to get some foundation for this race. She is bred to turf and a 1/2 to some pretty good turf horses. Would like 5-Tattletale Grey 8-1 much more with a better turf jock but think Hertler wanted the 7 pound edge by going with the bug. Don't want to go 4 deep but you almost have to use 10-Flying KC 6-1 underneath due to her liking to finish 2nd and 3rd. Gets a big jock upgrade to Castellano also so might even get to the line first with a good finisher.
12-Laurel Heights 9-5
6-Brooklyn Gal 20-1(Would be my w/p/s)
5-Tattletale Grey 8-1
10-Flying KC 6-1
Race 6
5-Startwithsilver 3-1 beat likely fave 8-Animal Appeal 2-1 two starts ago when they met at Belmont. Looks like those two battle it out again here. The only horse I could try to beat them with is 3-Little Bear Cat 8-1. Has only gone longer on turf and could have a much better finishing kick cutting back from 7f to this 5 1/2 distance.
3-Little Bear Cat
5-Startwithsilver
8-Animal Appeal
Race 7
Would try the two horses dropping out of the 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn if I were trying to oppose 4-Watershed 5-2. 9fs may be pushing it for Watershed but as said race 1 McLaughlin's horses are firing. 5-Doyouknowsomething 6-1 is the best price of the 3 with 7-Securitiz 3-1 coming into this off two straight races where the track played against him.
5-Doyouknowsomething
7-Securitiz
4-Watershed
Race 8
Another tough short price in 12-Undrafted 8-5 coming off a trip to Royal Ascot. The bad post could offer some other horses a chance . Hoping some of these horses push 4-Spring To The Sky 4-1 early so he doesn't go wire to wire again. If that happens 5-Sandy'z Slew 20-1 could turn the tables at a giant price. 9-Long On Value 6-1 tries sprinting on turf for the first time in 3 years. Has been routing for the most part and may have wasted a decent career away if sprinting is what he wanted all along. Still debating which way to play this race. Could just stab at the 5 , could box 12,9,5 or 12,4,5
5-Sandy'z Slew
12-Undrafted
9-Long On Value/4-Spring To The Sky
Race 9
A ho hum card lacking much quality for Saratoga wraps up with a bottom level maiden claimer. 6-Porch Pounder 8-1 drops yet another class level for the 3rd start in a row. Should have the lead all to himself and the easier company could do the trick. Violette thought big things were in store for 2-Bermuda Triangle 5-1 when he was prepping him for his 1st start last winter. Five starts later he is yet to finish ITM hence the drop all the way to the bottom. This would be the first dry main track he has ran on having ran 2 muddy sprints to start and then trying turf 3 times. If I had 20k to spare I would claim this horse. Ruined his stud value by gelding him after start 3 but have a felling this horse's stock will rise at some point. Is impeccably bred with several stakes winners in the tree. Would of had some stud value. Final Mott drops 4-Tradfest 8-1 out of 2 MSWs to start career and goes route to sprint , turf to dirt. Don't see how this horse stays at 8-1 but if he does that is the pick.
4-Tradfest
2-Bermuda Triangle
6-Porch Pounder
Solid write ups. In a 20 player lockdown today top prize 5 bills and will be giving your plays a spin unless I really see something else I like. Thx.
Damn.. think my horses came in 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd about half the card . The few that did hit were extremely chalky.
Still trying to figure out how to come up with the only big price Frosty Lady 20-1+ in race 5.
On to Wednesday. Only 1 day off a week at Saratoga
mike frosted lady was a tough one.....he hasnt raced since oct 15.......i liked the 4 and 5 that race...on saturday....i used your picks with mine....i did good.............the horse i liked bankers lady...same as you ran a giant race...just missed............
Yeah that Frosted Lady was a tough one to figure. Played a couple of my own and some of Mike's plays, but really needed that #8 in the 5th race. Look forward to later this week.
frosty lady
last figure on dirt (brisnet) as good as the 2 favorites ..
ran even race all the way around sitting behind slow pace in that race..
an above average turf pedigree according to my sire ratings.
what I would consider solid works leading up to the race..
trainer who has a very positive roi off 90 day layoffs..
trainer who has a very positive roi dirt/turf and in maiden claiming races..all big samples
the fact they would wait till saratoga to run this horse to me a sign they really like her
just my opinion. .everybody has their own grading system
You make a good case for her and on 2nd look I have to agree. When you have this strong a case it would be great if you would explain in detail why you like a 20/1 ML shot. If I would have read your take before I probably would have played her. Just a suggestion. Thx for the info.
I already spend more time on this than I should ..just not doable for me. .should also point out to be fair that this was my half unit choice and #5 was the full unit play
OK. Your call. But I think you would garner more cred here at SBR if you lowered your volume of picks, and instead at times(Especially for ML Shots) gave more of a detailed explanation so people know where you are coming from. I know you hit some shots from time to time, but I usually do not play them because I do not see your angle or I am not playing that track.
Yeah I agree. Everyone is different with how the weigh different aspects. People see the same thing differently. For instance you saw a healthy roi coming off 90 days or more with a big sample. While I saw in the past year he only had 4 horses coming from 223-373 days off and went 0 for 4 with only 1 ITM , that Schettino was pretty bad with horses first time in his barn , and I don't even consider the last dirt figure if running on turf. IMO most of what makes up someones process is a concoction of what they have had success before with and what they haven't. So naturally everyone's is completely different. Can definitely see the case now though and some things I missed.
yes I believe people go with what seems to work for them over the long haul and weigh it accordingly. .sure there's lots of things you put a lot of emphasis on that I don't which is fine and what makes it interesting. sometimes I think if you try and go in too many different directions it'll hurt your game more than it will help..you're write-ups for saratoga are great.. bol throughout the
meet
I don't like this card at all. Seems like I can't get past the favorites most races(especially races 2-3) and am stuck trying to beat the 3rd choices. So just posting a price horse who can spice up the exacta/trifecta.
Day 5
Saratoga
Race 1
Don't think I've ever hit a jumps race so Jonathon Sheppard at a price sounds good to me.
9-As You Like It 12-1
Race 2
1/1A-Zito Entry 15-1- It's as if Zito's horses are just automatically dismissed nowadays due to him never winning no matter how good his horses look. Think he will pop at a big price soon. The perception that he is never going to win has to inflate his prices doesn't it?
Race 3
1-Sound Of Freedom 20-1 - Has been running in tougher fields going longer. Has been a while but was once a prized Pletcher who ran 1st and 2nd in only 2 starts at SAR.
Race 4
5-Rachel's Temper 9-2 - First one that I actually think is a bit sneaky . Rosario has won the last 3 times he has ridden this horse on dirt. The horse is 2 for 27 the other times. Granted Rosario won those races sprinting but he seems to be able to save this horse something for the stretch and horse has done ok before at 2 turns.
Race 5
9-Conquest Bad Girl 8-1 - Casse has really come into the top tier of trainers all over the US. Like with just about everyone Saratoga has taken him longer but his bad numbers here just result in better prices. Horse had an eventful start in debut and then came running. Casse gets them to improve greatly in 2nd start.
Race 6
1-Tizacity 8-1 - Nicks is a good trainer with lightly raced horses. Debut was somewhat promising and should improve just not sure if that's good enough to beat what looks like the Shug monster 4-Blenheim Palace or the C Brown cutback 2-Chase Motto.
Race 7
10-Summer Breezing 6-1 - Has beaten the favorite before , ran best career fig going 5 1/2f at spa , and has fired fresh repeatedly.
Race 8
3-La Madrina 8-1 - Can throw out the figs when Shug spots them 3rd off the layoff. They will be competitive the majority of the time.
Race 9
3-Tent City 3-1 and 4-Justa Lady 8-1 look to have a clear edge up front with most others making one run. Can throw 2-Seeking Paradise 12-1 and 7-Lady Kreesa 10-1 under as the best closers at a price.
Race 10
1-Elroi 20-1 - Has had to come wide last 2 races. Maybe Geroux being one of the best turf riders knowing the importance of saving ground can find a path down the inside late at boxcars.
Nice call Race #2. 12/1 #1A won by 5 lengths. I am using Conquest Bad Girl and Summer breezing in a contest.
UMike been on ELROI FOR a while now. Excuses and more excuses. I'm with you about the jock .can make all the difference.....closes mad
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