Horse racing's Triple Crown is still a few months away, but action at the window will begin this week.
Two colts and a lovely lady dominate the picture as Thoroughbred racing's best 3-year-olds set off on the precarious, obstacle-laden path to Louisville, potential challengers lurking at every bend.
Many horse handicappers contend now is the time to seriously start studying prep races that pepper the calendar leading up to the Kentucky Derby and, to a lesser degree, Oaks. Host Churchill Downs will mark its launch of Triple Crown season by conducting the first of three Derby and Oaks futures wagering pools Thursday through Sunday.
Each features 24 betting interests: 23 individual horses and a field bet, currently the favorite in both events. The Derby field is 7/2 and Oaks field 3/1.
Other pools are slated March 8-11 and April 12-15, with all three wagering weekends scheduled to coincide with Derby "stepping-stone" races. A total of 450 horses have been nominated for the May 5 Derby, including 2-year-old male and female champions, Street Sense and Dreaming of Anna.
Supplemental nominations cost $6,000 between now and March 31; after that, it's $200,000.
Dreaming of Anna has been nominated for both the Derby and Oaks, but, like most outstanding fillies, is expected to run in the Oaks the day before the Derby. Churchill's Oaks futures pool lists Dreaming of Anna as its 4/1 second pick.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion Street Sense and highly-touted Nobiz Like Showbiz have garnered a majority of early Run for the Roses media hype and, predictably, are individual favorites in the first Churchill futures pool. Las Vegas futures books list them around 9/1 and 7/1 respectively, generally awarding Nobiz Like Showbiz an edge because the Barclay Tagg-trainee has won twice since Street Sense last hit the track.
The colts are expected to race twice each between now and the Derby, with Street Sense already commited to mid-April's Bluegrass Stakes.
Nobiz Like Showbiz, who skipped the Breeders' Cup, improved his resume with a victory in Saturday's 1 1/8th-mile $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park while avenging his lone loss to Scat Daddy in October's Champagne Stakes.
Sam's Town house handicapper Gordon Jones advises players to wait until Street Sense makes his 2007 debut - - expected early next month - - before they bet the ranch on either colt.
"Nobiz Like Showbiz did OK in the Holy Bull, didn't do anything wrong, but he also didn't run very fast or win by much at a shorter distance (than the Derby's mile-and-a-quarter)," Jones observed.
"He's going to have to run much faster if he wants to win a good Derby."
Tagg has said Nobiz like Showbiz will get a five-week break at some point before the Derby, leaving open the chance both of the horse's pre-Louisville starts could come at home in the March 3 Fountain of Youth Stakes and March 31 Florida Derby. Another possible scenario is the March 10 Louisiana Derby and April 7 Wood, or any combination of the four.
Street Sense's handlers indicate their colt could make his 2007 bow in the Hutcheson Stakes on the same card as the Fountain of Youth.
No Juvenile winner has followed up with a Derby victory, but Jones calls Street Sense's 10-length triumph in that race the most spectacular performance he's ever seen by a 2-year-old. He rated the Street Cry-colt in the same class as top 3-year-olds of last year such as recently-euthanized Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, Preakness Stakes champion Bernardini and Dubai speedster Discreet Cat.
"Street Sense ran faster than older fillies and mares in the Distaff and his times were as good as (some) horses in the Classic," Jones said. "So what we need to watch for now is how Street Sense does when he returns as a 3-year-old after a long layoff and if Nobiz Like Showbiz can turn on the gas."
The former Los Angeles Herald-Examiner turf edtitor suggests also keeping an eye out for the long shot that's inevitably out there.
"Horses can grow and mature a lot between the time they're two and three," he said, pointing out the second futures pool usually is a good one to wager into because bettors will have had the opportunity to see the great majority of contenders race at least once as a 3-year-old.
Jones has divided the half-dozen horses he's closely watching now into three tiers, noting hopefuls will shuffle in and out and up and down the ladder before he finalizes his Derby stable. Street Sense and Nobiz Like Showbiz are on top, of course, with Hard Spun (12/1 in the Hilton's futures book) and E-Z Warrior (50/1) occupying the second level.
Currently residing on the third tier are Adore the Gold and Forefathers, who impressed Jones with their showings in the Swale Stakes on Saturday's Gulfstream card.
Adore the Gold is 150/1 at the Hilton, while Forefathers has yet to be listed; the two would be field wagers in Churchill's opening pool.
"They're good long shot possibilities, if they just can improve two or three lengths," said Jones, who was more impressed with the pair's Swale performances than he was Nobiz Like Showbiz's in the Holy Bull.
This weekend's card is highlighted by the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds and Santa Anita's San Vincente Stakes.
"You'll get a couple of Derby contenders out of the Louisiana race, but I'm not aware of anything coming out of California," Jones said.
"Someone can always pop up, of course, though I haven't seen anyone yet."
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