[reigle9]

Is this a good price?

[StackinGreen]

It'll be higher than the final post odds. You know the drill, does he win more than 53.8% of the time?

I say he wins 65 out of 100.

[BGboothA]

Yes I believe that is a good price, he will go off at less than evenmoney come race day. But yeah math is math, I would agree he is about 65% at this point, assuming he runs I would say he is 70% .

[Jeffie]

If Competitive edge ends up racing in preakness then i could see AP losing.

[reigle9]

I guessed 1/3 track odds with a weak field after the derby so just making sure I wasn't too medicated.

edit -

American Pharoah wins Preakness Stakes

-130

[StackinGreen]

If Competitive edge ends up racing in preakness then i could see AP losing.

I had CE on Saturday but there's a pretty big class difference, don't you think?

[StackinGreen]

I guessed 1/3 track odds with a weak field after the derby so just making sure I wasn't too medicated.

edit -

American Pharoah wins Preakness Stakes

-130

Do you consider Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted weak? Aren't they coming back?

[reigle9]

Do you consider Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted weak? Aren't they coming back?

Super casual racing fan, but I'm super sure Dortmund won't be.

edit - I see the guy that knows what he's talking about said he will be. I really don't see it though, despite the ownership group. Too much money in a possible TC winner.

[sandyw123]

Do you consider Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted weak? Aren't they coming back?

I read that Frosted will probably go to the Belmont. I see Firing Line as AP's biggest threat in the Preakness. At the 1 3/16 mark in the Ky Derby, AP was leading by a head. Awfully close. Posts will factor in. I wonder if Dortmund is best at shorter distance. I also saw that Materiality might run in the Preakness.

[StackinGreen]

I read that Frosted will probably go to the Belmont. I see Firing Line as AP's biggest threat in the Preakness. At the 1 3/16 mark in the Ky Derby, AP was leading by a head. Awfully close. Posts will factor in. I wonder if Dortmund is best at shorter distance. I also saw that Materiality might run in the Preakness.

I think this is true. I've been looking at the top finisher behind the Derby winner who actually sticks it out for the Preakness, and it's a good angle over the favorite for a show bet. If Firing Line runs, he'll be top 3 for sure and likely pay more than AP to show.

Typically, the favorite wins again, which would diminish the show payout, but hey, that's what 'cappin is for

[Jeffie]

I had CE on Saturday but there's a pretty big class difference, don't you think?

def a class difference but hes blown away all off his opponents so far. This would be a huge test and he's shown the talent.
But i think if you're gonna bet on this race its either AP or you just watch it for the enjoyment factor.
Unfortunately i love action so ill def try and bet around him lol.

[sandyw123]

I think this is true. I've been looking at the top finisher behind the Derby winner who actually sticks it out for the Preakness, and it's a good angle over the favorite for a show bet. If Firing Line runs, he'll be top 3 for sure and likely pay more than AP to show.

Typically, the favorite wins again, which would diminish the show payout, but hey, that's what 'cappin is for

I really could see the same top 3 as in the Derby. It wouldn't pay much, but just might turn out that way. Probably more could be made by boxing in a 4th horse. Danzig Moon. Carpe Diem, and Materiality are possibly running. Divining Rod will run (don't know much about him). Any thoughts? Carpe Diem didn't look good in the Derby, seemed to get tired. Danzig Moon finished 5th and Materiality 6th, worth looking at. No Frosted in this one.

[BGboothA]

we will know more once the field is final.

I don't see a horse in this field that can beat AP other than AP. THere isn't anyone new coming in that should really have a shot.

[Stallion]

Dortmund or Firing Line have a decent chance of beating AP

[StackinGreen]

If Materiality runs he's a decent surprise price, like Curlin, getting better with every extra start, bad start in Derby and didn't take to the track at all according to Pletcher. Remember, Curlin ran 3rd and then beat Street Sense by a nose ...

[chaka]

we will know more once the field is final.

I don't see a horse in this field that can beat AP other than AP. THere isn't anyone new coming in that should really have a shot.

Firing line was right there and frosted maybe with only 9 starters less than half the field of the derby should be right there. Dortmund tanked but if fresh is definitely a contender

[Buckandadime]

Right now, unless something drastic to the horses or the field happens, I'm leaning towards a straight AP/ Dortmund exacta. Probably wheel that with a few for 3rd and 4th once the field is set..

[stevenash]

Do you consider Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted weak? Aren't they coming back?

Frosted wins the Belmont

[CWD]

toss dortmund again. AP was three wide the entire race and still put them away.....BUT there is the whole whip controversy and AP did look like he gave everything he had just to win, so tbats something to consider.

if i had to would look at carpe diem 16-1 right now wont be traffic problems this time and materiality at 12-1

madefromlucky could be the belmont threat but hes been beaten twice already by AP

[StackinGreen]

CWD, materiality is the better horse, don't touch carpe diem

Dortmund has the ability to be a monster at any time. Don't ever count him out.

Someone said only AP can beat AP ... weird way of not saying who will beat him if "he beats himself" - the question still remains who would win if "he beats himself"

[sandyw123]

CWD, materiality is the better horse, don't touch carpe diem

Dortmund has the ability to be a monster at any time. Don't ever count him out.

Someone said only AP can beat AP ... weird way of not saying who will beat him if "he beats himself" - the question still remains who would win if "he beats himself"

I don't like Carpe Diem in the Preakness. His best races were from a mile to a mile 1/16, just think he's more of a sprinter, despite all the hype he's had. I don't much like Competitive Edge in the race either. It's a big difference between 7f and a mile 3/16th. None of the new horses look like they have the combination of speed and distance capability. For me, it's between Materiality and Danzig Moon to finish in the top 4 with AP, Firing Line, and Dortmund.

[Buckandadime]

Frosted wins the Belmont

So many horses enter the Belmont that didn't run the first 2 legs.. Your first indicator is who was stakes placed as a 2yo.. Go from there.

[StackinGreen]

I don't like Carpe Diem in the Preakness. His best races were from a mile to a mile 1/16, just think he's more of a sprinter, despite all the hype he's had. I don't much like Competitive Edge in the race either. It's a big difference between 7f and a mile 3/16th. None of the new horses look like they have the combination of speed and distance capability. For me, it's between Materiality and Danzig Moon to finish in the top 4 with AP, Firing Line, and Dortmund.

I agree, Sandy. Still not sure if Dortmund is running. If he is, Baffert has hinted maybe he wasn't at his best entering the KDerby, and with his size, I wouldn't be surprised with a comeback win. At all.

[sandyw123]

I agree, Sandy. Still not sure if Dortmund is running. If he is, Baffert has hinted maybe he wasn't at his best entering the KDerby, and with his size, I wouldn't be surprised with a comeback win. At all.

I just read that Dortmund will be running, since Baffert said he's shown full recovery from what was ailing him.

[reigle9]

I'm starting to feel pretty terrible about taking the -130.

[Arky]

Five reasons why American Pharoah will and won't win Triple Crown

Why he will win

1. He's the best horse of a strong generation, as established by his one-length victory over ultra-consistent Firing Line, with American Pharoah's previously unbeaten stablemate Dortmund third, in the Kentucky Derby.

2. He has the perfect running style: Fast but content to sit behind horses as needed with the speed to stay out of trouble.

3. He's still lightly raced, with three starts at 2 and only two Derby preps. What might have seemed a detriment going into the Derby is now a positive because he's a fresh horse.

4. The Derby was the first time he was challenged and had to work to win. He will only improve off that effort — which is scary.

5. The racing gods owe Bob Baffert after his three Belmont losses with the Triple Crown on the line (Silver Charm, 1997; Real Quiet, 1998 by a nose; War Emblem, 2002). That's the most in history.

Why he won't win

1. Forget the Belmont. The Kentucky Derby winner is no sure thing to win the Preakness, with Firing Line and Dortmund good enough to win the Triple Crown's middle leg — especially if they draw outside American Pharoah and gain the tactical advantage of being able to pay off him.

2. His final quarter-mile time in the Derby was a crawling 26.57 seconds. While he's an outstanding horse, he's not Seattle Slew. The relatively soft early pace of the Derby — a scenario aided by speedy Florida Derby winner Materiality breaking slowly — made it tough on closers. The Preakness will be another story. He wasn't particularly bred to go 1¼ miles, let alone the Belmont's 1½ miles.

3. Trainer Todd Pletcher will win the Belmont with Materiality (who did well to finish sixth in the Derby after being completely taken out of his up-close game by the poor start) or Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem. Neither will run in the Preakness and will be a fresh hors. The rigors of the Triple Crown often don't show until turning for home in the Belmont — when horses already have run the Derby distance and have another quarter-mile to go. The last Belmont winner to compete in the Derby and Preakness was Afleet Alex in 2005.

4. The increasing popularity of competing in Triple Crown races stacks the deck against any horse pulling off the hat trick. Affirmed faced a total of 20horses in the series in 1978. American Pharoah faced 17 rivals in the Derby alone Saturday.

5. If Spectacular Bid — a truly great horse — couldn't get it done in 1979, don't expect any horse to secure American horse racing's most coveted sweep. Trainer D.Wayne Lukas, who owns a record 14 victories in Triple Crown races, long has said the best recipe for a Triple Crown is a truly great horse in a weak year. American Pharoah might prove to be a truly great horse, but this is not a weak year.

[StackinGreen]

I'm starting to feel pretty terrible about taking the -130.

Don't worry, it'll still be a higher price than what's at the track (esp if sloppy) ... but the clear play (at least value wise) is Dortmund. If he's out, I think you win again for sure.

[sandyw123]

[QUOTE=reigle9;23995555]I'm starting to feel pretty terrible about taking the -130.[/QU

Don't worry. You have a really good shot with a strong horse that can run on a dry and a sloppy track. There's a high percentage chance of rain and storms there Saturday, and he's proven himself on a sloppy track. Plus, he was in front in the Derby at the distance of the Preakness.

[StackinGreen]

Sandy's got it again.

[sandyw123]

I want to box AP, Dortmund, and Firing Line in 1 bet. I also want to do a superfecta box. I think I have to rule out Tale of Verve, because he has no stakes race experience and looks unable to catch the fast horses here. Bodhisativa doesn't look to have inherited enough speed. That leaves Danzig Moon and Divining Rod, with equal early odds of 22-1 (which will change drastically). I know the post positions need to come out, but the weather can make a difference here. Danzig Moon didn't run well on an off track in one of his 1st races, but he has improved and likes more distance. Divining Rod has also improved; and if it's muddy, he might take to it. Might do one of each. Am I wrong not to consider Bohisativa and Tale of Verve in an exotic? Crazy things happen in horse racing.

[sandyw123]

I'm anxious for the past performances to come out tomorrow, to do some more homework. In the Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/16 miles, Divining Rod finished 3rd, with Danzig Moon finishing 4th and making ground (with Divining Rod falling further back). Leads me to believe D Rod won't likely want to go 1/8 of a mile further. Expecting to see the same big 3 in front again Saturday. I wish Pletcher would have entered Materiality, his one horse that could be relevant in the Preakness. Now the Belmont field is looking to be huge.

[StackinGreen]

Am I wrong not to consider Bohisativa and Tale of Verve in an exotic? Crazy things happen in horse racing.

In more recent years the invaders or locals (guys like Magic Weisner and Midway Road, 2002-2003) haven't been as much of a presence. The last great invader was the outstanding Bernardini (2006) who took advantage of the Barbaro injury but might have won anyway, he was a monster.

The OFF track complicates things, but it still looks like the form should hold. I can't speak to Firing Line though (or Dortmund, but he looks like he's bred for wet).

[sandyw123]

Really good horses seem to handle mud pretty well, unless they're closers. Some horses seem able to run further on an off track than good one. Makes me consider Divining Line in a superfecta. Super Saver couldn't run distance, but actually won the Derby in the mud several years ago. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Need to look at the PPs when they come out.

[StackinGreen]

Really good horses seem to handle mud pretty well, unless they're closers. Some horses seem able to run further on an off track than good one. Makes me consider Divining Line in a superfecta. Super Saver couldn't run distance, but actually won the Derby in the mud several years ago. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Need to look at the PPs when they come out.

Yes, indeed. Lookin' at Lucky was clearly the better horse and you might have even seen it that day without drawing the #1 hole.
My supers will be 2-1-8-7 and 1-8-2,7-2,7

[oakas]

Victor Espinoza gets results. How he gets those results, however, have the jockey under fire.
Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah was examined by 12 state-approved veterinarians after concerns were raised over the frequency with which Espinoza whipped the horse down the stretch at Churchill Downs. Although no marks were found, the whipping bordered close enough on abuse to warrant an inquiry.
Not to mention, it might have crippled the horse’s chances at the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the vaunted Triple Crown.
“From a tactical standpoint, Espinoza did what he thought necessary to get American Pharoah home and that is his job,” wrote Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer. But “it looks bad when a rider keeps after a horse,” Darrell Haire, regional director of the Jockey’s Guild, told reporters.
“It might not be all that good for the horse, either,” Ford notes.
Espinoza whipped American Pharoah 32 times down the stretch of its Derby win, despite one of the slowest Derby races in the last decade and a half. Beyond concerns of animal abuse, there’s the practical upshot of leaving the horse spent before the gun ever fires at Pimlico Race Track on Saturday.
Espinoza, despite (or perhaps because of) ample success on the track, has a history, too. He has been fined earlier in his career for improper use of the whip, according to Ford, and was fined $300 last Friday for breaking Stellar Wind’s skin at Santa Anita Oaks in Arcadia, Calif.