Race 5 6 - Competitive Edge
5 - Lord Nelson
2 - Gimme da Lute
Race 6
8-Conquest Typhoon
9-Firespike
4-Royal Son
14-World Approval
3-Granny's Kitten
(bottom 2 are longshots at a price)
Race 7
4-Clearly Confused
8-Judy the Beauty
3-Dame Dorothy
This is all about if Judy can get into it in the 1st race of the year
Race 8
5-Coffee Clique
8-Sandiva
4-Lady Lara
11-Water Hole (Euro, 1st start, not sure if Brown can get her up but the WC for sure)
Race 9
4-Private Zone
5-Pants on Fire
2-Bayern
1- C. Zee
Like Judy, can Bayern come off the layoff and score. Easily the fastest, but who knows if he wants it today.
Race 10
3-Umgiyo
5-Finnegan's Wake
11-Slumber
9-Seek Again
10-Chocolate Ride
12-Grand Arch
Wide Open. With the right odds Chocolate Ride may be moved up ... I can easily see 10&12 getting on the lead and stealing it. Which one will last though? Probably Chocolate
Race 11
8-Dortmund
6-Mubtaahij
18-American Pharoah
15-Frosted
10-Firing Line
2-Carpe Diem
9-Bolo
I like Dortmund as the 17-hand mover over this course, undefeated in his starts and without a bad post position. I see him as the fastest with a bit more of a prep race history of challenges from his opponents. He is a Big Brown foal with breeding for the distance. Anything can happen but I like my chances with this undefeated colt bred for the distance and 6/6 lifetime with a solid 2 year old foundation of races.
Mubtaahij is the wild card who I like due to his experience with two 1-3/16 mile races, looking visually impressive in his last 2 outings. Shipping from the middle east all the way here is an issue, but it's built into the price, which should be double digits. This is taking a shot, but the odds are there. Bettor beware of this guy at a price.
American Pharoah has looked the best training and seems to be a potential superstar in the making. Given that the price will be low (5-2?) I can't take that payout with 20 horses in the field, something we only see this time of year. AP backers would like him to get the lead without insane fractions (look for :23 first 1/4 and up to :48 for the 1/2) out of the gate. In that regard, he could be as dangerous as everyone thinks he could be precisely because he will avoid real trip problems, the advantage of those that can run on the lead and get loose, like last year with California Chrome.
Frosted probably has the best pace characteristics and the fastest last 1/4 mile in his Wood Memorial prep up to this spot. I love his sire but my main worry is that he'll get caught up with too many horses obstructing him as he makes a final push to come from behind and win this thing. He's done all that they could have asked since some breathing issues hit him in the Fountain of Youth, which seemed to be corrected given his monster Wood Memorial performance. A real contender, but the 20 horse thing and finding a path is the question.
Carpe Diem is a dual qualifier with Pletcher training who has good connections and only stepped back from Texas Red in the BC Juvenile last year. I put Materiality in a similar since its the same trainer, has won stakes races and is fast, but slightly less experienced than the rest here.
Firing Line and Bolo are for those who want a bigger price. My feeling right now is that Firing Line is a real wise-guy choice and will be bet to 8-1 to 10-1, which is the minimum price you can take him at here. He's looked the best in training outside of American Pharaoh, and the other bomb, Bolo, 3rd to Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby doesn't have to do too much to get back into the money. Remember, these colts are growing and gaining experience. Add the big field and ... anything can happen.
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My take on Derby Day 5.2.15
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