He is a tricky read but one thing I am sure of is that he was not 100% wound up for his last race.
General A rod didn't pass him in the Gulfstream Park Derby?There is a huge difference between a mile and 1 1/4 and I'm not so sure he would be favored at a mile unless it was at GP maybe.
His races that you are enamored with ,he and 2 or 3 others ran 1-2 or 1-2-3 around the track and if you look even deeper when they entered the stretch hardly anyone improved positions in the whole field.