Sunland Derby

This weekend marks the last weekend of the 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby preps and as history would suggest its bar far the weakest of the other races worth the same amount of points. The horses in this race are looking to move straight from this weekend into the Kentucky Derby and will more than likely not suit up for one of the bigger preps, although they could turn around and run in either the Arkansas or the Blue Grass a few weeks from now.

The Sunland Derby has not historically produced a great deal of Derby contenders and this year doesn’t look to be much different.

HBD Top Tier Horses
Rebranded *HBD PICK* - Back on Feb 22nd this colt took a big step up finishing 2nd in the Mine That Bird Derby here at Sunland. While Rebranded didn’t show much while training with Todd Pletcher, the move to Justin Evans has proven to be very successful. Since moving to Sunland this year he has ran well and continues to show improvement. He will add blinkers this time out and has the Tiznow colt looks to have the pedigree to handle the distance without much issue. The late pace he showed last time out could come in hand as he will more than likely get a trip similar to the trip Hoppertunity received last weekend in the Rebel with the ability to rate just off two speed horses and have the clear outside lane to jump into and win down the stretch.

Commissioner – His sixth place finish last time out in the Fountain of Youth can be tossed aside as that race was over long before Commissioner even had a chance to make his mark. The three horses that took off in the FOY really gave the other horses nothing to deal with, and instantly made them all also rans. Commissioner looks to come back and return to the form he showed back in January at Gulfstream and I think this field gives him a shot to do so. The pedigree on this AP Indy colt suggests he can easily handle the distance and should get a nice pace to run at in this one on a fairer track.

HBD Second Tier Horses
Midnight Hawk - I know most people are in love with Midnight here, and he has been putting in good workouts heading into this in Santa Anita. But I just don’t like him as much as the rest of the world here in this field. Now that doesn’t mean that I don’t think he will grab a chunk of the Derby points and more than likely make the field of 20 in May, but here on this day, I don’t think he finds the winner’s circle. His Brisnet speed figures have been trending down, his post draw is going to put him in between horses with Tanzanite Cat two to his inside and Chitu two on his outside. If he pulls backs and tries to rate, he could easily get pinned with Rebranded and Commissioner showing better late speed. This is one of those cases of, its not the horse is the set up.

Chitu – Coming off a second place finish in the Robert E Lewis Chitu was clearly second best that day losing to an impressive Candy Boy by ½ a length. Chitu will want the lead but breaking from the far outside post isn’t going to help his cause, especially considering that he hasn’t broke well in 2 of his 3 starts thus far. It’s going to take a perfect trip here for Chitu to hit the winners circle, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the money somewhere and grab some of the Derby points, but winning this race is going to take a career effort along with some help from others.

HBD “So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
Tanzanite Cat – The only chance this horse has is if the rest of the field gives him a soft pace on the lead. I wouldn’t assume he is going to get the easy lead here with some other speed in the race in Midnight Hawk and Chitu. But if they let him loose on the front he could steal this one at a nice price. He has been working out well at Oaklawn and returns jockey Norberto Arroyo who has shown success on the mount.

HBD Horses that don’t belong
Bourbonize –While this gelding has been working out well at Oaklawn it just doesn’t seem to belong in this field. Some could point toward some troubled trips the last two out, but even his maiden win at 7 furlongs back at Churchill in November wasn’t all that impressive.

Garen – This is a horse that absolutely benefited from an amazing soft pace on a front loaded Santa Anita track last time out winning by 2 lengths against a Maiden 56k field. While that win looked great in the replay looking closer at the fractions and the competition makes this horse less likely to stand out here in this field. Look for Garen to grab the lead, but it would take a miracle for him to hold on to any of the money in this one.

Global Strike – This colt broke his maiden last out at Gulfstream Park in a Maiden 47k win over a very weak field at amazingly low odds. This is a huge jump in class and this youngster hasn’t really shown any reason to think he can hang with this group.

Lawly’s Goal – I honestly can’t find anything nice to say about this gelding in this field. He has won once in 11 tries and that was back in October.