I thought I'd open a thread where people can share how they would play certain situations. I read somewhere that a lot of good horse cappers end up losing money because they're not so good with value, so ...
Example. I capped a race for this Thursday. Ten horses, four or five contenders. I decided on #1 (8-1) and #7 (5-2). I think either one of these horses will win, and they may finish 1 and 2.
What's the best way to bet that? Obviously, #1 has more value; #7 is the favorite, at this time. Each to win, and an exacta box? Or something else? And what bet sizing?
Also are you betting with a bookie with fixed odds for all bet types? Odds at the track will vary based on pool size so quinella odds will be different than exacta odds etc..
I find one of the biggest mistakes people make is not backing up their bets. Putting all $20 hoping for a win is a mistake in my opinion jw assuming you have a small bank roll.
My way will not turn a huge profit quickly but if your bankroll is small it will allow you to play another day.
I have seen guys turn $1000 bank roll into 2 million dollars in handle by playing smart... In an industry that pays rebates its stupid to play high risk style and not back up your bets.
I bought a program that calculates this for me, based on different risk approaches and overlays (I believe the math is taken from Bernie Meadows book "money secrets at the race track"). The program even uses the speed figures I prefer. Only problem is that the data I use, which are to 1000th of a second for each horse in QH racing, are not available in a format that the program can use. So there I am with a pretty sophisticated program and having to rely on imprecise 'lengths behind' instead. Of course this messes up the odds and everything else.
Back to the drawing board. Or rather, peppering Equibase with requests for a different data format.