With Belmont Park’s fall meet coming to a close, New York breds will have the spotlight for horses young and old while all the bigger name talent is away getting ready for the Breeders Cup.
The $250,000 Empire Classic is the main event today at Belmont with veteran contenders going 1-1/8 miles and Slevin (#2) looks for a second straight victory at Belmont with a nice price on the toteboard.
New York breds in the racing world may not have the reputation of being the fastest horses out there, but there is always money to be made in races focusing on them. With big purses on the line, some trainers have clearly put more of a focus on today’s card than others and are looking for a paycheck at this level of competition.
In the Empire Classic today, the morning line favorite is Future Prospect (#6) at 8-5 odds and with bringing some of the best speed in the race, he will be the one to catch. Future Prospect struggled a lot last year, but has had some consistent form in the last six months winning six out of the last eight starts. This includes a victory at Belmont Park last month, and hitting the winner’s circle at Saratoga in August. I do feel the odds will likely go off at less than 8-5 here and that should make Future Prospect too much of an underlay to make any real money with. With eleven opponents today, someone else could really light the board up should Empire Classic not come in as chalk.
Another low priced horse that I will pass on today is Haynesfield (#5) at a morning line of 4-1. This colt could be a late-blooming three year old as he has four impressive victories this year throughout the NYRA circuit. However, with no starts at 1 1/8 miles yet it could be a different story today and odds this low are not enough for me to risk finding out.
My choice to back in the Empire Classic with some win and place tickets is Slevin (#2) who could go off at even higher odds than the 6-1 morning line. Slevin had several place finishes occur during the summer at Belmont, Finger Lakes, and Saratoga which were not enough to grab a ton of attention but show that he has the potential to be right there at the wire today. One of these efforts was a loss by a neck in the Albany Stakes which resulted in a career-high speed figure for Slevin at today’s 1-1/8 mile distance. Javier Castellano is staying aboard after a win at one mile last month that followed that outing and could pick up a nice paycheck here for trainer Carl Domino.
Two-year olds in action: A pair of $100,000 stakes
Leading up to today’s main event, two stakes races feature two year olds at one mile distances with each paying purses of $100,000. The first of these is the Maid Of The Mist Stakes for fillies and the morning line favorite is Mineralogist (#2) at even money to win. With two wins in her last three races, Mineralogist is tough to go against and I have no choice but to go with the favorite here as the rest of the field is looking unready for the challenge today. Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Mineralogist for the fifth straight time and is the only horse showing a solid ability to steadily increase distance with success. Even though no starts at one mile have occurred yet, having AP Indy in the blood makes up for that and I see a winning effort coming today.
The other stakes race for two year olds is the Sleepy Hollow and features some up and coming colts going one mile – many of whom are trying the longer distance for the first time. Leading the field out of the 10 hole is Ibboyee at a morning line of 5-2, and with three straight wins you are probably looking at less odds than that come post time. I would have to pass here as not having any races over the track at Belmont yet will make it hard for the transition into bigger distance to occur.
Three contenders with some value in the Sleepy Hollow are Come From Behind (#3), City Trooper (#5), and Make Note (#7) – all of whom finished in the money last month when racing against each other at Belmont. I would consider spreading out the risk in this race with some smaller win tickets on each of these three and try to grind out a profit should one finish ahead of the chalk. Come From Behind stayed near or in the lead last month and broke his maiden in Saratoga over the summer wiring a large field there. City Trooper has not finished out of the money in four starts and closed from the back of the pack last month to finish third – today’s added distance may give more time and space for a better-executed close. Make Note was the winner among these three last month and will pay less odds today but is still an overlay at the 9-2 morning line – Edgar Prado closed nicely last month to get the win and stays aboard here as this colt’s speed has gotten better every time out.
The Iroquois: Ladies going 7 furlongs for $125,000
A big field of 13 and no clear cut favorite should make the Iroquois a good betting race and a way to get the bankroll built leading into the Empire Classic. My top two choices to back here for the best value are My Dinah (#2) and R Betty Graybull (#7) at 12-1 and 6-1, respectively.
My Dinah should probably go off at less than 12-1 by post time given the success had on the dirt at Belmont before and cutting back in distance from the 1-1/16 mile races to 7 furlongs here should help also. In the last three starts at Belmont, this filly was able to stay within the front of the pack the whole way through and had a career-high figure two starts back when barely finishing second to Weathered in the Belle Born in September. Weathered will not be there to compete with today as she has moved up to take on the boys in the Empire Classic so it could be a good chance for My Dinah to hit the winner’s circle at a solid price.
R Betty Graybull scored nicely at 6 ½ furlongs just two weeks ago at Belmont and pulled off the top two speed figures of her career in the that start and the one before. Although sprint races are not always about the best closing kick leading to a win, R Betty Graybull did that last time out and even was way wide that day. If a better trip happens, an easier win could come here even with going an extra half furlong more. Holy Bull in the blood cannot hurt chances for success either and we could have a late blooming filly on our hands with trainer Alan Seewald looking to have picked spots carefully when it has come to action at Belmont.
Tom Durkin fans should tune in today as Doremifasollatido is among this field which always makes the race call an entertaining one.
The Hudson Stakes: Older field going 6 furlongs in $125,000 sprint A field of 11 contenders will look to collect in the Hudson Stakes as three year olds and up battle it out here in a six furlong sprint. The morning line favorite, Driven by Success, is listed at 8-5 odds and has Ramon Dominguez aboard who failed to hold a lead at Belmont aboard this colt back in May when going a mile there. Going back to six furlongs should increase the success chances today, but I feel the low odds are too much of an underlay – especially coming in off an eighth place clunker at the Spa.
My selection to win the Hudson is Legal Consent (#4) at 8-1 and odds in the morning line, and I am planning to play him across the board. Legal Consent has come in the money four times in five starts at Belmont and has the most earnings of anyone in the field. In three starts at the six furlong distance, this colt scored a big victory at Finger Lakes last year and added two second place finishes at Aqueduct during this past spring. John Velazquez has been aboard for two straight starts where some less impressive finishes happened, but staying in the saddle here and cutting back to six furlongs from those outings could be the key to the winner’s circle today.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Slevin a 6-1 overlay in Empire Classic at Belmont Park for New York breds
Reply With Quote