Just as Well and Quijano are overlays to back in the Pattison Canadian International on ESPN2

by "Reload" Joe Freda

On Saturday afternoon, ESPN2 presents a trio of three turf stakes races live from Woodbine beginning at 4pm ET. The main event is the $2,000,000 Pattison Canadian International for eight comers from around the world going 1 ½ miles. Just as Well (#4) and Quijano (#3) are both 6-1 in the morning line with some value and could edge out the rest of the field in this marathon.

In a long turf race for big money, it takes some real talent to outlast others and get the payday. Today’s favorite in the Pattison Canadian International, Jukebox Jury (#7), has done just that several times recently. With jockey Royston Ffrench aboard, Jukebox Jury was victorious in three of his last four races across the pond in Germany, France, and England. This contender also gets to carry only 119 pounds which is seven pounds less than the rest of the field. However at a low morning line of 5-2 odds and no races ever at Woodbine, I do not feel it is worth putting money in this jukebox.

Marsh Side (#5) is another low paying contender at a morning line of 7-2 that I am avoiding to take here. Javier Castellano will be aboard and won this same race aboard Marsh Side last year. I feel a good share of the betting money will be on this defending champion, but that this field will be a tougher challenge. In three out of five starts this year, Marsh Side was never among the leaders at any point of the race and this even included efforts at lesser distances like the 1 3/8 mile Man O’War at Belmont back in July. There is enough uncertainty that should make anyone want to pass and push Marsh Side off to the side.

The two horses that I am backing with win and place tickets in the field today are Just as Well (#4) and Quijano (#3) – feeling that both are overlays at 6-1 in the morning line. Both horses came in the money against Marsh Side and Champs Elysees in last month’s North Dancer at Woodbine and it would not be surprising to see all four hit the wire together again today.

Just as Well was placed first in the NorthDancer after Marsh Side was disqualified and also was runner up in the Arlington Million back in August finishing just a length behind Gio Ponti that day. Those two races were the best speed that Just as Well has had career-wise and it will just be a question of if the stamina is still there. Some good form has happened for Just as Well since increasing distance to at least 1 ¼ miles when before that some more disappointing finishes had occurred at 1 mile. Julien Leparoux stays aboard from last month’s victory today and was also aboard at Pimlico for a strong second place finish at 1 ¼ miles on the turf in the Dixie. This was when the better speed was beginning to show for Just as Well and I feel at 6-1 odds it will be worth finding out if it happens again today.

Quijano came in third and placed second during last month’s North Dancer and should be right there again today. I could see higher than the morning line of 6-1 for Quijano and with some good speed being reached in his three races on North American soil it could be a nice check coming up today. Quijano’s jockey Andrasch Starke came over from Europe for this one today just like he did for the North Dancer and it will be an advantage having that effort from last month under his belt. With Quijano having become a real specialist at this distance, it should just a question of time before outlasting others for the winner’s circle and it could happen today at a nice price.

The Nearctic and E.P. Taylor – More big money on the turf
Leading up to today’s main event, ESPN2 will present the Nearctic and E.P. Taylor stakes races – both of which are for big purses of their own at different distances. The Nearctic will open the broadcast and is a six furlong sprint for $500,000 with a big field of eleven while the E.P. Taylor will have eight fillies battling 1 ¼ miles for $1,000,000.

The favorite for the Nearctic is Jungle Wave (#11) at a morning line of 5-2 and on paper is pretty hard to go against. Jungle Wave’s connections tried increasing distance and going after the Woodbine Mile last month but the sprinter faded in the stretch finishing fourth with not enough in the tank. Going back to six furlongs should make him the one to beat today even with the worst post position, but I will pass.

Instead of chalk in the Nearctic, I am looking for longshot Bogue Chitto (#8) to finish in the money and will play him across the board. Although this is a big step up in class, Bogue Chitto’s connections proved he could handle the Woodbine turf two starts ago at the beginning of September with a 6 furlong win then. Jockey Gerry Olguin stays aboard today and 117 pounds will be five pounds less since that victory.

In the E. P. Taylor, Rainbow View (#2) is an 8-5 morning line favorite and comes over from Europe for a shot at some big North American dollars. Although she won big race last month in Ireland, I do not think it will mean much for her chances here today. That victory was at one mile and increasing back to 1 ¼ miles, as well as changing continents for this one leaves too much uncertainty. Better competition today also means a good chance of this favorite finishing out of the money and light up the tote board with some high prices.

As with the Nearctic, my focus is on a higher valued horse in the E.P. Taylor and I will be going with Salve Germania (#8) at a 6-1 morning line. Although I think the odds could go off at a bit less than that, a sizeable win and place ticket is in order here for this lady who won the Ballston Spa at Saratoga back in August and appears to have picked a spot carefully for this next start today. In the Ballston Spa, it was a strong close for Salve Germania and I feel today’s increased distance to 1 ¼ miles can be handled for that reason. Trainer Todd Pletcher has finished in the money with two out of three starters in this year’s Woodbine meet and sending Salve Germania here today will be the next payday.