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Saratoga 3 Races (Monday)
3rd Race Aliraven
Should be the primary speed in this 6 furlong dash. Coming out of a race at Monmouth in which she broke extremely slow and lost all chance. Didnt run that bad considering the trouble and the fact that she was facing better horses than she is today with the exeption of todays favorite. The field she just faced run beyers in the upper 70's to low 80's consistently. Outside of the favorite the top beyers for runners in this race today are right around the mid 60's. I certainly respect the favoite #9 shipping in from Churchill who looks about 3/5 on paper but Im always dubious of shippers coming into Saratoga from Kentucky, especially favorites. Also greatly respect the #4 Full of Intent who started to get pretty good last fall but she hasnt raced since December.
Aliraven might not be the best horse in this race but if handled properly she should be the primary speed, that is always dangerous. Odviously have to hope she doesnt make a mess of the start today as she has too be the inside speed to win.
4th Race Slickuponatime has a live look to him
Making his 2nd start today for Bill Mott. Hesitated at the start in his 1st race at Parx then rushed up to sit a close 2nd to a lightning fast pace. The pace maker who finished 3rd in that race came back to improve his beyer fig 6 points in his next start. The 2nd place finisher in that race came back to win while improving his fig 6 points as well. So the race appears to be live enough. I dont like that Slickuponatime faded to be beaten 16 lenghts but the early trouble and especially the fast pace were very legit. Also will greatly help his price here today that he finished so far back.
Was playing around alittle with DRF Formulator and found some pretty good stats for Mott in similar siuations as todays spot. Over the past 5 years when Mott has a 3 year old male horse making his 2nd career start and going dirt to turf he has won at 25% with a ROI of $4.92, and 50% in the Money. When these horses are shipping into a new track they are winning at 42% with a roi of $8.20, and ITM 58%.
In the latest clocker report on this horse he went the published 4 furlong drill in just under 49 flat easily while in hand and galloped out 5 furlongs with good energy in 1:02:87.
Johnny V certainly adds to the appeal, when he and Mott have gotten together in the past year they have had there picture taken 33% of the time.
As I look through all the other horses in here there certainly isnt anyone to be to afraid of. Good type of race to take a shot with a price. This could posibly be a prep for a stretchout but after watching the replay and reading the clocker report I think he is super live.
Race 8 Deanaallen'skitten
Wont be much of a price but this horse is one of my favorite horses in training. She runs her race every time as she has been on the board in 16 of 17 races. She has won her last 2 races and comes into this in career form. Has been working steadily on the turf at Belmont and all systems appear to be go. I certainly respect the ML favorite Peace Preserver and I do expect her to be a real favorite in here, 6/5 range. To me this is a 2 horse race so I will take 3-1 on the #3. Should get good pace setup to close into as well. I guess the Clement shipper from France #4, could be the wild card as she has reportedly been training well in the morning.
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Originally Posted by mrginandtonic
