[Reload]

Hold Me Back unrestrained from the winners circle as morning line chalk in Kentucky Cup Classic

by "Reload" Joe Freda

Turfway Park hosts a trio of Breeders Cup prep races on Saturday led by the $200,000 Kentucky Cup Classic. Travers Stakes runner up Hold Me Back will be unleashed at Turfway today where he won the Lane’s End Stakes earlier this year and is the 7-5 morning line chalk in a field of nine going 1 1/8 miles. Although the colt has not won since then, he will tough to keep out of the winner’s circle today.

Hold Me Back (#2) may have only three lifetime wins, but has two victories out of three outings on the synthetic surface featured at Turfway Park. Back in March, this contender closed nicely going five wide against a big field of 12 in the Lane’s End and this handicapper sees another win in similar fashion happening today. Although Hold Me Back came up short in the Blue Grass the following month, it still resulted in a solid closing effort for the place spot going six wide. The synthetic surface has not been seen since then – and it resulted in some disappointing efforts.



After a 12th place flop in the Kentucky Derby, trainer Bill Mott entered Hold Me Back in the Virginia Derby this past July and went off as the betting favorite despite a switch to turf and a six week layoff. Although the turf was a little wet that day, there were no excuses for a fifth place finish leaving bettor’s scratching their heads why they would have backed him there as chalk. This clunker causes some high odds on the board for the Travers Stakes last month as Hold Me Back rebounded there as a 17-1 shot finishing second to Summer Bird on the sloppy Spa dirt.

With the return to Turfway today for Hold Me Back, I feel the difference maker will be the switch back to the synthetic surface and combining that with some good form shown in the Travers will get this colt a victory. A speed figure of 105 was obtained at the Spa making it the best number of Hold Me Back’s career, and it is hard to find any opponents today who have come close to that kind of effort. More lifetime earnings than anyone else in today’s field also shows that this race is also a drop in class for Hold Me Back as Mott had him facing some of the most challenging fields out there this year. Today also acts as a prime way of getting ready for the Breeders Cup as the synthetic surface out west at Santa Anita will be a factor in who takes home the big money in November there. Look for Hold Me Back to not only win today but be one to watch at some better odds then.

Should Hold Me Back fail to get it done today, longshot Your Round (#5) is worth a few of your dollars at a big morning line of 30-1. Despite not winning a race in over two years, this colt has been up and down the Kentucky circuit coming in the money at Turfway, Keeneland, and Churchill Downs at long distances. Although he comes off a long layoff having not raced since April, that day Your Round finished second as a 43-1 shot and notched the second highest speed figure of his career with a 90. With hitting the place spot five times out of six starts on the synthetic surface, it seems only a question of time before getting the right trip for a victory and I am willing to take a chance at sky high odds like this with a small investment.

Distaff has the ladies in the Kentucky Cup action
Although most of the attention is on the Kentucky Cup Classic today, the Kentucky Cup Distaff and Kentucky Cup Sprint at $100,000 purses for each have drawn in some good talent. Today’s Distaff field made up of fillies and mares is led by 7-5 morning line favorite Bear Now (#6) who won this race a year ago but has not won since then. With not racing since June, there is a chance she won’t have the same kind of form as last year and I am looking elsewhere on the toteboard for some better value.

One longshot at higher odds worth a handful of dollars is French Kiss (#2) at 15-1 in the morning line. French Kiss is trained by Gary Hartlage who has had two winners out of three starters at Turfway this year and both were ridden by jockey Joe Johnson who stays aboard this filly today. She also likes the synthetic surface and closed nicely in a victory at Keeneland last year for a victory on it. Although French Kiss has not won since February, 15-1 odds make it worthwhile to find out if she can come in the money today.
Another contender worth a look is Whirlie Bertie (#9) who should go off at higher than the 5-1 morning line. This filly had three straight wins at Churchill Downs last year and has come in the money three times in four starts at today’s 1 1/16 mile distance.

Whirlie Bertie is fresh off a wire to wire 1 mile victory last month with the best speed figure of her career logged there and it will just be a question if Turfway’s synthetic surface can be handled. As long as the odds do not go down from 5-1, I feel there is enough of an overlay to take a chance on this lady.

Sprint draws a big field of value
The Kentucky Cup Sprint has a field of 11 going six furlongs and with no dead favorite it could be anyone’s race. Morning line favorite Guam Typhoon (#5) is listed at 3-1 but I find it tough to take a chance on him at low odds when the distance was extended for the colt up in Saratoga to 1 1/8 miles for two races there. It could be tough adjusting back to a six furlong sprint – as well as never having a start on the synthetic surface yet.

Two horses with some better odds to look at are side by side in the starting gate with Dynamite Bob and Turfiste coming out of the (#8) and (#9) holes, respectively. Dynamite Bob is paying 15-1 in the morning line and just won at Turfway a couple of weeks ago at the six furlong distance with a career-high 90 speed figure in an allowance race. Jockey Pablo Tolentino has been in the money four out of five times when riding the colt this year and stays aboard after the victory two weeks ago.
Turfiste finished third to Dynamite Bob two weeks ago and won at Turfway back in March with an 87 speed figure ten making it this colt’s top career outing. Jockey Julien Leparoux was aboard that day and gets the return to Turfiste’s saddle today which should help for a return to the winner’s circle. This contender also showed he can handle being on the track with a large field like today’s when victorious at Keeneland last year breaking his maiden against ten others.

Next week: The Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont
One of the biggest cards of the fall happens next Saturday at Belmont Park as Jockey Club Gold Cup day takes place. The main event has a $750,000 purse and is expected to feature Belmont and Travers Stakes winner Summer Bird. With the undercard also loaded in purse money, the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic could possibly draw Gio Ponti to compete for a share of $600,000 there. Check back next weekend for a full preview of this card, and good luck at the betting windows until then.

[gummo]

Nice write ups. I think Hold Me Back is the horse but it is raining here in Cincy today. That may tighten up the polytrack and favor the speed horses though, so it is something to consider.

[Reload]

Nice write ups. I think Hold Me Back is the horse but it is raining here in Cincy today. That may tighten up the polytrack and favor the speed horses though, so it is something to consider.

Thanks for the info, gummo. It was sounding like a 50% chance of rain.

Good luck today!