This year's Derby is the most contentious I've ever tried to handicap, and that is saying a lot. As in most races, the field is divided amongst contenders, pretenders and tail enders. The complex system of points eligibility has reduced the latter group, however, eliminating entrants from egomaniac owners who just wanted the prestige of having a Derby participant, no matter how minuscule its chances. The result is a field that is tough to figure out, but we'll give it a try.
1. Black Onyx - Listed at 50/1, it would seem that this colt is a no hoper, but he's won his last two, albeit in more modest company than he meets here. So, it wouldn't be a miracle if he should win, but he must reluctantly placed in the tail ender group.
2. Oxbow, the mount of Hall of Famer Gary Stevens, who is attempting a comeback at age 50, is pegged as a 30/1 chance, which appears about right, considering that he has been soundly beaten by many in the field, the latest by Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby. Another tail ender candidate.
3. Revolutionary, the first of five Todd Pletcher's entries, is listed at 10/1 (5/1 in early wagering) and has the services of Calvin Borel, who knows his way to the winner's circle at Churchill. Bo Rail, as the rider is known hereabouts, should help, but the horse is definitely one of Todd's second string. However, sometimes they win, as yesterday's Pletcher filly proved in the Oaks, reporting home at 35/1 to nip our selection on the wire. The horse is a betting underlay at current odds and is in the pretender section.
4. Golden Soul, another at 50/1 should be an even longer price IMNSHO, as he has only a maiden win on his record and earned Derby points from being placed in several minor stakes race. A tail ender.
5. Normandy Invasion, listed at 12/1, but also dropping in pre race betting, is definitely in the contender pack. Trained by Chad Brown, a local success in KY, he's piloted by Javier Castellano, who got off Revolutionary to ride this colt and gives one an idea of the rider's preference. He was a closing second to Verrazano in the Wood, and would have beaten that one in a few more strides. Surely, one of the main chances.
6. Mylute, ridden by Rosie Napravenik, who is seeking her first Derby win, won't get it today, it says here. This colt is another who lacks stakes winning credentials, but gets in by being close in ungraded stakes. Hard to imagine as a winner, but always seems to be in the hunt against lesser. A tail ender.
7. Giant Finish, who has yet to live up to his name, is a 50/1 chance and should be longer at post time. His best effort was in his latest, a distant third to Black Onyx in the Spiral at Turfway, hardly a recommendation. A tail ender.
8. Goldencents, a shipper from California, is a very live contender. Ridden by hot jock Kevin Krigger, hoping to be the first black rider to win in a century he's ably handled by Doug O'Neill, trainer of last year's winner. Winner of the prestigious Santa Anita Derby in his latest, the colt has early speed to get position in a big field like this and stands a long stretch drive well. He hasn't met the other contenders in the race, so it's an open question whether the West Coast competition is of the calibre of the Eastern horses this season. If so, he has a huge shot.
9. Overanalyze, the second of Pletcher's band is a huge overlay at his morning line odds of 15/1 and he undoubtedly will be shorter by post time. An impressive winner of the Arkansas Derby in his last effort, Rafael Bejarano is sticking with him and he must be given every chance. His running style suits the Derby to a T. He's usually forwardly placed and closes with enthusiasm. If he can avoid getting trapped in this big field early, watch out when he gets in the clear coming for home. He's a definite threat to win and likely to hit the board, in any case.
10. Palace Malice, number three from Pletcher's barn, this one is steered by Mike Smith, who got the job done for the boss in yesterday's Oaks. This colt is another long shot, as the opening price is 20/1. But, as the saying goes, the horses can't read the tote board, so disregard the odds. With all that said, if he weren't in Todd's barn, he be an even longer price. He's lost to several in the field, most notably Revolutionary, who buried him in the Louisiana Derby. He bounced back from that effort to be necked by Java's War in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. That was a very weak field however, and not a good pointer. Garret Gomez got off the colt after that race to guide Vyjack today, another indicator. A pretender.
11. Lines of Battle, a 30/1 Aiden O'Brien shipper from Ireland, tries US horses for the second time after a disappointing effort on the Santa Anita turf. Unusual for European horses, he appears to like the main track better than turf, as he proved in his latest, winning the UAE Derby. Apparently he doesn't mind shipping, as he has a bunch of frequent flyer miles and gets off the plane running. He's pretty much a mystery, but O'Brien is one of the world's best trainers and regular rider Ryan Moore is in the saddle. No European horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby, and this one is likely to keep that record intact. A pretender.
12. Itsmyluckyday, a consistent stakes winner in secondary level contests, appears ambitiously placed in here. He's one of the few who have met Goldencents and was far back of that winner then. He's 15/1 and an underlay even at that price. A tail ender.
13. Falling Sky, another at 50/1, has been soundly beaten by several in the field, most notably, Verrazano and Overanalyze. Would be a huge upset and one wonders why a sharp trainer like John Terranova is even entering him. Must have been the owner's decision. A definite tail ender.
14. Verrazano, number four in the Pletcher hit parade, is undefeated, winning his only four starts. A logical favourite at 4/1, he has not been getting early support and may not be the post time choice. As noted, he's lightly raced (unusual for a Pletcher charge), he didn't start until January, 2013. That naturally poses questions about his soundness. In his races, he's never put a foot wrong and regular rider, the formidable John Velasquez remains aboard. What is a problem for yours truly is his last race, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he was shortening stride to Normandy Invasion and Vyjack and would have lost to both in a few more strides. The mile and a quarter of the Derby may just find him wanting. However, until someone does actually beat him in a race, he has to be in one's calculations. A certain contender, as far as he goes.
15. Charming Kitten, number five in Pletcher's army, is probably the weakest of the bunch at 20/1. His best effort was his latest, a third to Java's War and Palace Malice in the aforementioned Blue Grass. Undoubtedly in at the owner's insistence, he'd be a huge surprise. A tail ender.
16. Orb, a 7/2 chance off his Florida Derby win, does not appear worthy of that price. That Gulfstream stakes had a mediocre field, for such a prominent race. Second in the race was Itsmyluckyday, discussed above. Orb broke his maiden beating Revolutionary, but prior to that effort was far back against Vyjack. A pretender, at best.
17. Will Take Charge, a Wayne Lukas long shot at 20/1, is in pretty tough. He's way outside and has no early speed. His best effort was his latest, where he headed Oxbow (see above) in the Rebel at Oaklawn. Would be a shock winner, a tail ender.
18. Frac Daddy, another 50/1 entrant, really has little to recommend it. Still eligible for non winners of two races he's lost to both Overanalyze and Itsmyluckyday. A tail ender.
19. Java's War, in at 15/1 has excellent connections, but little else. Trained by Kentucky veteran Kenny McPeek and ridden by Julien Leparoux, he's finished behind half the field in one race or another. a tail ender.
20. Vyjack, also 15/1, presents a far better value than most of the field. Trained by NY based Rudy Rodriquez and piloted by Garrett Gomez (IMNSHO the nation's best rider), this colt has a huge shot. As noted above, he was closing in on Verrazano in the Wood, and the rider switch to Gomez is a big plus. As anyone who watched yesterday's Oaks could attest, he finished like a wild man on Beholder and almost held her together for the victory. Coming out of post 20 will not bother him. Many horses have won from that slot, and in some ways, it's an advantage. You're outside all the argy-bargy coming away from the gate, and this colt has enough speed to be well placed by the first turn. If he hits the front turning for home, he'll be hell to beat. A prime contender.
Summing up, the field has five contenders, four pretenders and eleven tail enders. Amongst the contenders, I like Overanalyze, Goldencents and Vyjack best, An exacta box of those three would come back at a good price. Additionally, exactas with the top three on top and Normandy Invasion and Verrazano would be good savers. Playing those for one unit would cost nine units. A ten unit bet to win on each of the top three is also advised.
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