[Kev the Brit]

Hi guys,

First time I've contributed to the horse racing forum.

Since Oct 13 I've tracked and recorded the results of 1700 horse races to test a system I've "created". Currently, the average profit per race is 15%. 1703 bets at 1 unit each, has produced a return of 1949.15 units so far. Yep, its been laborious, but interesting all the same. Today, for example, the system bet on 28 races and returned 82.1 units. There also days when the system loses, but the biggest daily loss so far has been 21 units.

My question: given the number of horse races every day, is 1700 races a large enough sample to provide the basis for a reasonable conclusion about my system?

Regards
Kev

[chilidog]

While 1700 bets looks very attractive, a 3 month time frame isn't. If you are looking at selling the system, of course you will get customers. If you're just wanting to re-assure yourself, I would say that you're on to something, but I wouldn't feel 100% confident in it just yet.

[BGboothA]

Yes and no!

Is it worth betting on at this point...Hell yes!

Is 1700 enough for a scientific study of the system...no.

But hell you got me intersted.

[Kev the Brit]

Thanks for your answers, guys. I too believe that its still early days. I have been playing the system (1 unit risked per bet) with very small stakes. Some days, such as Boxing Day, more than 50 bets must be made so I clearly don't want to expose a lot of cash by increasing the unit value. I intend to carry on and build up both the stats and, hopefully, the bank roll. If there is a down side to this, it is the unavoidable requirement to make each bet just before post time. In the UK, thats every 10 mins on week days and less than that on Saturdays. This means being at the pc, mind focussed, for up to 4 hours a day.

Although anyone can post false results after the event, I have nothing to gain by doing so, so I will post my true progress here every week for anyone who's interested.

Kev

[daoilman]

If there is a down side to this, it is the unavoidable requirement to make each bet just before post time. In the UK, thats every 10 mins on week days and less than that on Saturdays. This means being at the pc, mind focussed, for up to 4 hours a day.

Sounds sorta like playing holdem MTT's, except no 5 min. breaks every hour and the requirement that you gotta play almost every hand.

[Kev the Brit]

Sounds sorta like playing holdem MTT's, except no 5 min. breaks every hour and the requirement that you gotta play almost every hand.

Yeh, I can see the similarity. Sometimes I can make the bet well ahead of the post time and get away for a break. There are also evening races in the UK, but I'm discounting them from the system because its impractical to spend too much time on it. Chances are that the evening races would fall in line with the afternoon races, but I've got to draw a line. Fortunately, I'm retired from full time employment, so I can spend most afternoons playing it.

[singgooner]

Hi,

I am a very sad geeky horse racing fan and I am looking at various systems on NZ, Australia, HK and also UK racing.

I know you do not want to divulge your secrets - but doing my own "hobby horse" research - the more you can breakdown the races into groupings, the better you will be able to see patterns and you will see you can be more selective in your bets.

For instance for USA racing - I brakedown via Class of Race, Age of Horses e.g. 3yo only, 4yo&Up-F&M, State Bred races, distance, type of surface (dirt, aw, turf) - state of track, jockey, trainer, then I have a rating number and then the rating advantage (the difference in ratings between 1st and 2nd)

For UK racing - OK - we all know it is a bit bent with dodgy links to Betfair - but I still do the same - breakdown races via the class of race e.g. maiden stakes, handicap chase, maiden hurdle, etc - then the official class of race (1-6), the age of horses e.g. 4yo&Up, 2yo only, then distance, state of ground and jockey, trainer.

For UK racing, if I find a selection I like - I then watch the Betfair market like a hawk - any drop in price - I am on - any drift in the market - I wait for the next one.

So, maybe to stop your 50 bets in a day - try to sub group as much as possible and then you might be able to sort out some more wheat from the chaff. Also, I must - MUST - stress the betfair market is a very accurate indicator of a UK horses' chance in a race and can save
you a lot of lost bets.

If you want any help - without divulging your secret formula - you can email me the.no1daddy@gmail.com