1. #1
    BGboothA
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    BGs Friday's BC thoughts

    Race 4 = Juvenile Sprint (6f - Dirt)
    I really see this as a one horse race. #3 MERIT MAN should wire this field and I don't really see anyone who is going to press him or catch him. #5 SUPER NINETY NINE a homegrown Baffert horse is in the field, and may make a run for second, but just doesn't have the speed to keep up with MERIT MAN to the end. #2 CEILING KITTY is interesting having never ran on dirt. But I will be singling MERIT MAN in my first pick 3. And would love to see him over 5/2 at post.

    Race 5 = Marathon (1 3/4 mi - Dirt)
    This race is a cluster****, I see it going a couple of different ways. Seems like #11 COMMANDER and #12 WORTH REPEATING should jump out to the front and get a fairly easy ride around the track without much pressure. If one of these two horses can hold on and pull ahead its the #12 WORTH REPEATING who will be my #1 pick. But I am not sure either of them can do so. It would not surprise me to see a nice price come out of this race. I like #4 GRASSY to make a play and bring a nice price into the vertical exotics. and the #13 SENSE OF PURPOSE comes in interesting one as well. I also will be including #5 JAYCITO with Talamo on his back coming down the stretch run as well.

    Race 6 = Juvenile Fillies Turf (8f - Turf)
    I have no idea who is going to win this race, but have my plays narrowed down to 4 horses that I really like and will be looking at post time odds on this one. #3 SKY LANTERN seems to be my favorite here, but I don't expect to get a price that I like in order to actually bet this horse other than in some exotics. Another horse that may have lower than I hope post time odds is #6 WATSDACHANCES who looks to be set up perfectly for this race, but may take too much money for me to find value. #5 SPRING VENUE is another horse I like. Finally a nice price that I think really has a shot to close on this field is #13 FLASHY WAYS.

    Race 7 = Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 - Dirt)
    I love this race! I really think its #2 EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE's race to lose and will be playing it accordingly. I would really like to see some money fall on #8 KAUAI KATIE who I think is out of place here and should have stayed in the sprint where I would have loved her. My only concern is the pace may be crazy! I have this rated as an 20.4 pace (EEE6.83) and we could see some insane splits that may blow this thing wide open. If thats the case, and it very well could be, I am in love with #3 SPRING IN THE AIR. This fillie can fly down the stretch, if its get's crazy, this could be my price for the day, I just hope the ML goes off around 8-1 or better.

    Race 8 = Filly and Mare Turf (1 1/4 mi - Turf)
    The RedCoats are coming! Everyone will be looking at the Euro's here and for probably good reason. But I am really liking the a French horse here in #2 ZAGORA. Has ran really nicely under similar conditions the they could see on Friday and should be in good form coming into the race. The obvious first choice I think will be #4 THE FUGUE and for good reason, there isn't any reason this horse can't win this race. I am just not sure what kind of price we are going to get come post. I also like #9 MARKETING MIX and think we may get helped with a better price simply because he is the best shot as an American horse in the field.

    Race 9 = The Ladies' Classic (1 1/8 mi - Dirt)
    This is going to be a great freakin race! I think I am looking forward to this more than any other race over the two days. That being said, I am really going to be waiting until post time to make a bet here. I think #5 AWESOME FEATHER is going to have the best set up for a win here. The pace should be quick and could be pressing with #4 QUESTING and #8 LOVE AND PRIDE on the front being pushed heavily from the two favorites in #5 AWESOME FEATHER and #6 ROYAL DELTA. When it comes down to the end I think it will be #5 AWESOME FEATHER over #6 ROYAL DELTA. However, I will be placing a nice win bet and some exotic bets that include #3 CLASS INCLUDED. This is the only horse that I have seen in person, and I am a homer in all facets of sports, so I will be rooting for this Emerald Downs Filly as much as possible.
    -----------------

    Good luck boys and lets make some money!!!!

    Please post your picks or thoughts, I would love to hear some other opinions on these races.

  2. #2
    BGboothA
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    I meant to include this on the bottom of my post but forgot....

    My preliminary pick6 ticket at this point (very subject to change since I can't spend $720 on a ticket)

    3 / 4,5,7,12,13 / 3,5,6,13 / 2,3 / 2,4,9 / 2,5,6

    will probably look more like
    3 / 5,7,12,13 / 5,6,13 / 2 / 2,4 / 2,5,6

    But who knows....trying to find a couple of friends to split a ticket with me on Saturday, so who knows what I will actually play.

  3. #3
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Good write up. Will take a closer look at what you wrote before each race.

  4. #4
    mikemca
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    First let me say good luck to you ,if I don't win it would be just as nice for it to be you.Second let me preface this by saying I am wrong just as much as the next guy, its capitalizing on the wins where I do best.I think you couldn't have the Juvy filly any more wrong.Executive Privilige is going to be the worst favorite of both days and Kauai Kate isn't going to run a step.Doesn't matter if it were the sprint or the route.


    Also for the sprint Super Ninety Nine is going to run a big one.Might end up being chalky with Merit Man but SNN would be my key not the other way around.

  5. #5
    BGboothA
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    First let me say good luck to you ,if I don't win it would be just as nice for it to be you.Second let me preface this by saying I am wrong just as much as the next guy, its capitalizing on the wins where I do best.I think you couldn't have the Juvy filly any more wrong.Executive Privilige is going to be the worst favorite of both days and Kauai Kate isn't going to run a step.Doesn't matter if it were the sprint or the route.


    Also for the sprint Super Ninety Nine is going to run a big one.Might end up being chalky with Merit Man but SNN would be my key not the other way around.
    Aint that the best part Mike of BC day Mike!

    And right back at you, if I don't win this weekend, I sure hope one of you guys do!! But here's is hoping we all do. As far as the Juvenile Fillies go, come Friday afternoon my money will probably be on SPRING IN THE AIR, being that EP price will probably be too short for me to play with confidence.

    What are you thoughts on the other races?

  6. #6
    Heppy10
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    I pretty much like all your picks i think we handicap the same because what you wrote alot of the times i was thinking the same. The only real differences
    In race 6 i like #4 Flotilla to hit the board
    In race 8 i like #12 In Lingerie i think she will like the turf
    In race 9 i love the #2 My Miss Aurelia i just think she is a special horse like zenyatta she never really blows the field out but she hates to lose and i dont see it happening here. I think #5 Awesome Feather comes in second, and i agree with you the #3 Class Included can sneak in for third

  7. #7
    pulledclear
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    Executive Privilege will be way over bet. Huge PASS. At 3-5 you can keep her even if she wins by a pole. If she doesnt win by some miracle the PK 6 will be a monster. That race is also in BOTH PK 4s.

  8. #8
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by BGboothA View Post
    Aint that the best part Mike of BC day Mike!

    And right back at you, if I don't win this weekend, I sure hope one of you guys do!! But here's is hoping we all do. As far as the Juvenile Fillies go, come Friday afternoon my money will probably be on SPRING IN THE AIR, being that EP price will probably be too short for me to play with confidence.

    What are you thoughts on the other races?


    Race 4---Super Ninety Nine---Baffert wins about 1 every 3 with horses that just won their maiden.Besides that he has been working well in the AM ready to fire with about a 10-15 point jump on the speed figure scale.

    Race 5---10-Eldaafer is the only dirt horse in here who loves the distance.If he doesn't win I'm almost certain he will be among the top 3 or 4.I originally like 1-Atigun but thought he would be a better price as he looks like a hanger but the way he idled like he had plenty left if he needed it in the Belmont wowed me.This horse could run 3 miles if he had to.Not Abroad ,Commander, and Worth Repeating are the ones that scare me .Taking a leap of faith that Fame And Glory and the other turf horses might be most suitable to the distance but Gaelileo has babies to run on turf not dirt.

    Race 6
    This race is next to impossible.Hearing good things about 6-Watsdachances but A,B,C handicapping leads me to Sky Lantern and Floatilla.I do have preference for some bombs to throw in 3rd and 4th in 1-Kitten's Point 12-1 and Oscar Party 20-1.

    Race 7
    I have a feeling this is the race that is going to "shock" everyone.Toss Executive Privilege,Toss Kauai Kat,and Leaning tossing Beholder.That is the 3 heavy favorites which leaves me with 5-Dreaming Of Julia and these

    3-Spring In The Air 15-1
    4-Renee's Queen 30-1
    6-Almost An Angel 30-1
    7-Broken Spell 20-1

    Race 8 Nothing fancy
    10-Ridasiyna 4-1
    4-The Fugue
    11-I'm A Dreamer 8-1

    Race 9
    Just sit back and watch an historic race.You won't see a field like this for a while.Have to watch the tote for value if there is any.I can't separate them.My opinion would be if Royal Delta is on her best she could win both Classics ,Ladies and,Colts.

  9. #9
    pulledclear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heppy10 View Post
    I pretty much like all your picks i think we handicap the same because what you wrote alot of the times i was thinking the same. The only real differences
    In race 6 i like #4 Flotilla to hit the board
    In race 8 i like #12 In Lingerie i think she will like the turf
    In race 9 i love the #2 My Miss Aurelia i just think she is a special horse like zenyatta she never really blows the field out but she hates to lose and i dont see it happening here. I think #5 Awesome Feather comes in second, and i agree with you the #3 Class Included can sneak in for third

    That chalk is gonna kill you faster then a bullet.

  10. #10
    BGboothA
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Race 7
    I have a feeling this is the race that is going to "shock" everyone.Toss Executive Privilege,Toss Kauai Kat,and Leaning tossing Beholder.That is the 3 heavy favorites which leaves me with 5-Dreaming Of Julia and these

    3-Spring In The Air 15-1
    4-Renee's Queen 30-1
    6-Almost An Angel 30-1
    7-Broken Spell 20-1
    I am not in total disagreement with you, I think you an throw out KUAUI KATIE and BEHOLDER. If it isn't EXECUTIVEPRIVELIDGE its going to be the #3 SPRING THE AIR coming from off the pace and taking this down.

  11. #11
    Heppy10
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    what u talkin about chalk?

  12. #12
    bbaffert
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    In the ladies classic, keep an eye on #7 Include Me Out at 15-1. Pace sets up well for her and she is on her home track. R. Delta in an exacta with IMO and IMO for a win wager.

  13. #13
    bbaffert
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    Santa Anita Breeders Cup Day 1 Friday November 2

    Race 6 Juvenile Filly Turf
    #12 The Gold Cheongsam 20-1
    Why? Shipper has the same sire as favorite #3. I always take euro horses when they have done one of two things, this one has done both. She has won carrying over 130 pounds, she won with 133 and only has to carry 122 tomorrow. Also, she beat a large field. She finished 1st in a 21 horse field. It takes a ton of luck but quite a bit of skill to do that. At 20-1 she is worthy of a win and place wager. Also, if you want to gambler more, an exacta box 12, 3, 5 is not a bad play but if I was betting I would bet to win and place.

  14. #14
    Heppy10
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    nice tip i liked the 3,4,5 but ill throw money across the board on the 12

  15. #15
    mrginandtonic
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    Great stuff here. Love to hear everyone's opinions on BC. I have a couple of thoughts that I think it has a chance that haven't been mentioned yet.

    Race 6:
    13- Flashy Ways- She is out of Storm Cat and Carson City and I believe she take the mile. She won last time out at one mile and earned a good beyer for this group. I think Richard Baltas is underrated trainer. I wish Frankie Dettori is riding the 12 cuz I loved Jeremy Noseda as a trainer.

    Race 7:
    As poorly as Wayne Lukes has been, he has come up with some unexpected wins. His horse, 7- Broken Spell, has flirting with the win a while now. She has improved in every race and 20-1 ML, it might pay a few dollars just for show.

    Race 9:
    What a race, at least on paper. We have so many undefeated and also multimillionaires. I like the 4- Questing for the Godolphin group. If everyone is afraid to take the lead, this horse may just take it all the way. The second last race at SAR for 1 1/4, she ran wire to wire going 1:09 and 1:35, then finished at 2:01. I think that's pretty impressive for a 3 yo fillies.

    Didn't really a lot time looking at friday's form, cuz I'm mainly concentrating on Saturday. Good everyone and let the racing begin.

  16. #16
    str
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    As usual, I will be pulling for Grace Hall .

    This race is loaded with talent and if you can get past her one bad effort at Saratoga this year ( she is much better than that, trust me), she fits as well as most. Great price and a great trainer.

  17. #17
    NoFear
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    Non-runner = super ninety nine

    non-runner = worth repeating


    had decent bets on both. seems like merit man will take down the Juvenile Sprint

  18. #18
    BGboothA
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    SA #4 $1 Pick-3 3,​WT,4,5,7,13,​WT,3,5,6,13

  19. #19
    BGboothA
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    Lets hope these bullshit scratches don't keep up

  20. #20
    BGboothA
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    SA #5 $0.50 Trifecta 4,5,7,13,​WT,4,5,7,13,​WT,11 none $ 6.00
    SA #5 $0.50 Trifecta 4,5,7,13,​WT,11,​WT,4,5,7,13 none $ 6.00
    SA #5 $0.50 Trifecta 11,​WT,4,5,7,13,​WT,4,5,7,13 none $ 6.00

    SA #5 $1 Pick-3 5,11,​WT,3,5,6,13,​WT,2 none $ 8.00

  21. #21
    mrginandtonic
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    Damn, I knew Lukas is gonna drop a bomb, was hoping for the 7th race instead!!

  22. #22
    BGboothA
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    SA #6 $2 Exacta 6,13,​WT,1,3,6,8,10,13 none $ 20.00

  23. #23
    BGboothA
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    SA #6 $0.50 Pick-4 3,5,6,13,​WT,2,3,​WT,2,4,​WT,2,5 none $ 16.00

  24. #24
    Heppy10
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    hey Bg i told you the 4 would hit the board nice win 24.80 i should of had the exacta

  25. #25
    BGboothA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heppy10 View Post
    hey Bg i told you the 4 would hit the board nice win 24.80 i should of had the exacta
    Yeah man Nice hit! I shoudl have listened to you

  26. #26
    BGboothA
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    SA #7 $0.50 Trifecta 1,2,6,7,​WT,1,2,6,7,​WT,3 none $ 6.00
    SA #7 $0.50 Trifecta 1,2,6,7,​WT,3,​WT,1,2,6,7 none $ 6.00
    SA #7 $0.50 Trifecta 3,​WT,1,2,6,7,​WT,1,2,6,7 none $ 6.00

    SA #7 $0.50 Pick-3 2,3,​WT,2,4,9,​WT,2,3,5,6 none $ 12.00


    ALright lets see if we can hit this one

  27. #27
    BGboothA
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    F me

  28. #28
    Heppy10
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    lol i had 2-3-5 boxed, pure speed no one came off the pace

  29. #29
    BGboothA
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    Alright, not going to post my picks....let see if I can win on superstition here

  30. #30
    BGboothA
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    OK its official.....I am no longer posting picks!!!

    Finally hit something

    SA #8 $0.50 Trifecta 4,9,11,12,​WT,2,​WT,4,9,11,12 none $ 6.00
    SA #8 $0.50 Trifecta 4,9,11,12,​WT,4,9,11,12,​WT,2 none $ 6.00
    SA #8 $0.50 Trifecta 2,​WT,4,9,11,12,​WT,4,9,11,12 none $ 6.00


    And I have a three horse DD alive!!!

  31. #31
    Heppy10
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    nice i had 2ex box 2-9

  32. #32
    daoilman
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    Royal Delta with Power Foot for the late double.

  33. #33
    BGboothA
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    I just looked at the DD will pays.....

    Come on Homer Pick!!! #3 CLASS INCLUDED

  34. #34
    daoilman
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    If Power Foot wins, I get out ahead.

  35. #35
    BGboothA
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    well hit the late DD

    finished the day -22 bucks after 250+ bet

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