[BGboothA]

This is a personal project that I have been working on for a while now...thought it was time to share.

I use current HDW PP's imported via CSV into an excel sheet, than use that excel sheet to do the math I created and produce these cheat sheets. This is my handicapping....

Please check this out and let me know what you think......I want honest feedback. Please don't worry about hurting my feelings.
**************************************** ********

Starting from the top working my way down....

1st Black row at the top
EMD = Track Abbreviation used by betting websites (Emerald Downs)
Race #
Distance in Furlongs
Surface = We only distinguish between Dirt/Turf/Poly at this point, it won't say innerturf or any other yet.
Race Pace = Calculates the # of E/P/S horses to give an overall Pace value to the race,
Quirin Avg = This is the average Quirin speeds of qualified "E" horses only.
Speed/E1/E2/LP = are the average speeds needed to win this race at this track.


In the Gray
Our picks*, using a / to seperate teirs and using a - to seperate horses within a tier.
Most added = The horse that qualifies to have the most points added by our system.
Time of race
Date of race

***Still have some bugs to work out, if its a small field and the system can't find 4 horses it likes, we are still getting an error message.



Going across the 2nd Black Row
Horse # = Obvious
Horse Name = Obvious
M/L Odds = Odds according to Morning Line released by DRF
Pace = Pace Style of the Horse E, E/P, P, S
HBD Bonus= Total number of HBD points added to Rating
HBD Rating = Combination of Speed numbers and HBD Added. This is the overall determiner of value.
Early Pace Lengths = The horses E2 Speed in relation to the rest of the field for today's race.
Late Pace Lengths = The horses Late Pace in relation to the rest of the field for today's race.
HBD Speed = Average of HBD E2 and HBD L8 figures.



Going Across 3rd Black Row
E1 Value = A value assigned to a horses E1, this number has different importance depending on distance of race.
Quirin Speed = Quirin Speed of the horse
Jockey Value = A combination of values for the Jockey win % at this type of race, and the Jockeys familiarity with the mount.
Trainer Value = A combination of values for Trainer win % at this type of race
Win Recent = 1 point for winning the last race, and 0.5 points for winning 2 races back or 3 races back.
Strong Finish = Ability to finish the race strong (helps qualify horses for Place and Show)
E% = Percent of the energy a horse usually uses in the first half of a race.

**************************************** *******************

[BGboothA]

Here are the Belmont Sheets for Tomorrow, 07/15/2012


http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/0715_BELMONT.pdf

[str]

The one that jumps out at me is this:

Win Recent = 1 point for winning the last race, and 0.5 points for winning 2 races back or 3 races back.



If the win was in a maiden, N/W2, N/W3, or any beaten race, and the horse has to move up in class or more worrisome, move out of the class it was able to beat, the number might point you towards a horse that is not as good as others.
This is especially true with the cheaper horses, like the C.T. horse that just broke it's maiden for 5k after 10 tries and moves to N/W 2 company or the n/w2 horse that won after 10 tries and moves to n/w3.
Has this been a problem in those types of races?

[BGboothA]

Arlington Park 07/15/2012
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/071...NGTON_PARK.pdf

Emerald Downs 07/15/2012 (My Home Track)
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/0715_EMERALD_DOWNS.pdf

Louisiana Downs 07/15/2012
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/071...IANA_DOWNS.pdf

Philadelphia Park 07/15/2012
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/0715_PARX.pdf

Saratoga 07/15/2012
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/0715_SARATOGA.pdf

[BGboothA]

The one that jumps out at me is this:

Win Recent = 1 point for winning the last race, and 0.5 points for winning 2 races back or 3 races back.



If the win was in a maiden, N/W2, N/W3, or any beaten race, and the horse has to move up in class or more worrisome, move out of the class it was able to beat, the number might point you towards a horse that is not as good as others.
This is especially true with the cheaper horses, like the C.T. horse that just broke it's maiden for 5k after 10 tries and moves to N/W 2 company or the n/w2 horse that won after 10 tries and moves to n/w3.
Has this been a problem in those types of races?

Yes and No....we don't blindly bet this system this is used to focus our attempts down to races that seem to have a positive value. We are currently working on another model that includes a closer look at class movement in order to fix the issue you pointed out. We have spent many hours dicussing that exact question. The strange thing is that our data doesn't point to a problem in those instances. (yet?)

This is at an infancy stage to say the least, we have 3.5 months of data thus far. Still collecting a great deal.

[BGboothA]

I can get any track in the nation (and some in Canada) as long as they have PPs on HDW

[str]

Yes and No....we don't blindly bet this system this is used to focus our attempts down to races that seem to have a positive value. We are currently working on another model that includes a closer look at class movement in order to fix the issue you pointed out. We have spent many hours dicussing that exact question. The strange thing is that our data doesn't point to a problem in those instances. (yet?)

This is at an infancy stage to say the least, we have 3.5 months of data thus far. Still collecting a great deal.

Keep up the good work !

[mikemca]

Think its going to be hard for anyone that doesn't use HDW to understand.Just like it would be hard for someone to look at the data I use and come up with picks.It all takes some getting used to.I do think some things are universal though if you use both pace and speed figures.IMO the best bet in racing is a E or E/P horse that has even a remotely competitive speed figure relative to the field it is in today while the pace figures were much slower than that speed figure it earned.

[TonyP]

will take a look at Belmont for today

[BGboothA]

Think its going to be hard for anyone that doesn't use HDW to understand.Just like it would be hard for someone to look at the data I use and come up with picks.It all takes some getting used to.I do think some things are universal though if you use both pace and speed figures.IMO the best bet in racing is a E or E/P horse that has even a remotely competitive speed figure relative to the field it is in today while the pace figures were much slower than that speed figure it earned.

The goal in the end is the opposite of this. To create a beginners PP of sorts. Trying to show different aspects broken down in an easier to read format.

[DDT]

Thanks for your hard work BG

[BGboothA]

will take a look at Belmont for today

Let me know what you think

[TonyP]

Let me know what you think

will have to get use to reading these

[MrBrown]

taking a look at it at AR ED PARX LD today, 2 quick comments.

it would be handier to use if all horses were listed in top to bottom order of your final #'s and also you are using post position #'s instead of program #'s which when the is an entry(s) puts the wrong betting # up, could cause confusion unless just for your use
Example 1st at Parx today you have "horse #8" RYHAD when in fact he is P# 7

So far it looks promising

[MrBrown]

8th Parx, MARCIE LEE on top! lol​ very nice

[MrBrown]

PARX done, took me less than 5 mins to do the card, no racing form, just your spreadsheet.
Using my trainer stats with YOUR selections i came up with these, in order
1- 7 6 3 ran 7/6
2- 1 3 2 ran 1/3
3- 8 3 4 ran 1/3
4- 8 6 4 ran 7/3
5- 2 3 6 ran 2/9
6- 2 8 9 ran 2/8
7- 1 9 6 ran 9/1
8- 6 3 4 ran 6/5
9- 7 10 3 ran 10/3 3 nice find by you at 13-1, exacta pays $156

I'd say you put out some quality selections on that card, keep up the good work

[Arletta]

Very impressive and look forward to hearing more.


You had some very nice winners as well as some juicy tri's..

[MrBrown]

BG also did well at LD and ED so far tonight, but AR was pretty much a mess
BG, have you had trouble with AR in the past, if so wondering if it's that all weather track.
Anyway, your stuff does look promising for sure, BOL to you in the future

[BGboothA]

taking a look at it at AR ED PARX LD today, 2 quick comments.

it would be handier to use if all horses were listed in top to bottom order of your final #'s and also you are using post position #'s instead of program #'s which when the is an entry(s) puts the wrong betting # up, could cause confusion unless just for your use
Example 1st at Parx today you have "horse #8" RYHAD when in fact he is P# 7

So far it looks promising

Hmmm, I never thought about sorting them by rank...would be easy enough to add into the macro before producing the PDF. Will do.

YES, the post position vs. the program numbers is a problem and we aren't sure how to fix this. The problem is coming from HDW who we use to get the information, they give us post position instead of program numbers, so we run into this sometimes if there is a scratch at a certain time during the lead up to the production of the sheets.

8th Parx, MARCIE LEE on top! lol​ very nice

Yeah that was a nice one....we had a few nice ones today at PARX!

PARX done, took me less than 5 mins to do the card, no racing form, just your spreadsheet.
Using my trainer stats with YOUR selections i came up with these, in order
1- 7 6 3 ran 7/6
2- 1 3 2 ran 1/3
3- 8 3 4 ran 1/3
4- 8 6 4 ran 7/3
5- 2 3 6 ran 2/9
6- 2 8 9 ran 2/8
7- 1 9 6 ran 9/1
8- 6 3 4 ran 6/5
9- 7 10 3 ran 10/3 3 nice find by you at 13-1, exacta pays $156

I'd say you put out some quality selections on that card, keep up the good work

Thanks, thats the goal, to be able to produce a sheet that is easy to use and quick. Thanks for the feedback, hope you made some money.

BG also did well at LD and ED so far tonight, but AR was pretty much a mess
BG, have you had trouble with AR in the past, if so wondering if it's that all weather track.
Anyway, your stuff does look promising for sure, BOL to you in the future

Yes we have had trouble at AR and Hollywood, both All weather Poly tracks. Still can't figure out why those are so damn different, but we are going to have to adjust our formula for those somewhere....just not sure where. With Del Mar opening this weekend, it will be interesting to see if the trend continues there as well.

[MrBrown]

You really rocked Belmont I see.
I'm wondering how much weight trainer stats play a part in your selections and how do you obtain your trainer stats.
I see a few trainers of horses listed as a top 1 or 2 selected horse and these trainers are like 1 or 2 for 50 in the past year and these I couldn't bring myself to play in races with trainers with much better records in the same race and in just about all cases this was the right decision.
Also I see a trainer highlighted as the top trainer play in a race and I really don't see how.
Not criticizing at all, you've done a good job so far, just interested in your work.
I've tested dozens of methods over the many years and yours is definitely one of the better ones.

in regards to DelMar, short fields might be a problem for risk/reward, we'll see
if you can could will you put up a sheet for Mountaineer and Charlestown sometime ?
i usually do well there and would like to see what your sheet brings up.

[TonyP]

going to go back and look at what every thing means to learn how to read these then I will use next time you post

[BGboothA]

You really rocked Belmont I see.
I'm wondering how much weight trainer stats play a part in your selections and how do you obtain your trainer stats.
I see a few trainers of horses listed as a top 1 or 2 selected horse and these trainers are like 1 or 2 for 50 in the past year and these I couldn't bring myself to play in races with trainers with much better records in the same race and in just about all cases this was the right decision.
Also I see a trainer highlighted as the top trainer play in a race and I really don't see how.
Not criticizing at all, you've done a good job so far, just interested in your work.
I've tested dozens of methods over the many years and yours is definitely one of the better ones.

in regards to DelMar, short fields might be a problem for risk/reward, we'll see
if you can could will you put up a sheet for Mountaineer and Charlestown sometime ?
i usually do well there and would like to see what your sheet brings up.

Yeah Belmont was great yesterday! Made some real money there as well....too bad I didn't play that trifecta in the 3rd. Still a nice day.

The trainer number is a combination of things...basically its produces a % kinda of like I have seen on brisnet PPs for how the trainer has done on this type of race. Sprint/1st Time starter/etc....that % is turned into a point total that we have found works well i conjunction with the other aspects.

One issue we have with the trainer and Jockey method is that in the beginning of the meet the numbers can be misleading, because of the lack of data on the trainers and jockeys to that point.


If you want to look, here is Mountaineer from yesterday...
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/0715_MOUNTAINEER.pdf


Here is CharlesTown from yesterday....
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/56327515/0715_CHARLESTOWN.pdf

Like I said earlier, it runs almost any track in the country, some I have never heard of....Arapahoe Park anyone? Just a matter of saving the files to my dropbox and posting the link.

[BGboothA]

BG also did well at LD and ED so far tonight, but AR was pretty much a mess
BG, have you had trouble with AR in the past, if so wondering if it's that all weather track.
Anyway, your stuff does look promising for sure, BOL to you in the future

Well you had me thinking...and this is what I found.....I ran the history of our last 550+ races...(not a lot, but my eyes were starting to hurt), they will auto fill into this form from now on, so each day will auto tally into more and more history, but I had to back log these 550 some odd races.



Some interesting finds...

Dirt is by far the best at finding a winner in our top 4 listed picks at 80.3%, but Poly is the best at only looking at our top tier (varies from race to race, but usually 1, 2 or 3 horses at 50% Turf is the worst of the surfaces thus far.

Looks like we get worse as the race gets longer....picking sprints well over 80% of the time, while routes drop off closer to an average of 70%.

I was also curious about how we did from each track....EMD is the best, while Arlington Park is our worst, followed closely by Churchhill....but Churchill has a fairly small sample in this book at this point.

I was honestly expecting to see more of a decline as the number of horses got larger, and while there was a decline, we are still over 75% when looking at 11 horses. (not sure what the hell is going on when there are 8 horses...lol)

As far as the type of race goes, shit, I was trying to figure out a way of seperating them out more, like claim 7500 vs claim 30000, but damn, each track has their own claiming count, and its a punk just to look at them.

Anyway, some good, some bad, but it is what it is.

[MrBrown]

I checked out the CT and Mountain sheets you sent for Sunday and the results were excellent.
CT I could see 6 exactas that I would have hit using a 3 horse box in each race.
The prices were smallish as only 1 race was won by a horse over $8 and that was a pretty uncatchable shot paying $70.
But that's not the systems fault, the right horses were there, that's what matters.
Mountaineer was a different story, also the right horses hitting but prices hitting also.
Exactas picked up were
1- $126
4- $113
6- $75
7- $44
9- $39

I'd say so far very good, with the amount of tracks it can play it's a pretty awesome project in the works

[BGboothA]

wow, I didn't even check them other then blindly inputting the numbers into our results sheet. Sweet....my goal now is to keep running results and finding the races that we do well in, then focus our bankroll on those races.

[TonyP]

wow, I didn't even check them other then blindly inputting the numbers into our results sheet. Sweet....my goal now is to keep running results and finding the races that we do well in, then focus our bankroll on those races.

that is a good idea. Let us know what class or surface or distance these are best used in and what tracks to use these in.

[BGboothA]

that is a good idea. Let us know what class or surface or distance these are best used in and what tracks to use these in.

Tony,
I am trying to figure out a way to seperate class more in my results. My problem right now is that I can separate results for, Maidens, Claims, ALlowances and Stakes. I can pull MaidenCLaimer, I can OptionalCLaimers separate as well.

But the class from track to track is so different, the bottom level claimer at EMD is 2500, while the bottom claimer at Belmont is like 10000 or something. There are so many #'s in the claim and Allowance races that I can't auto distinguish the class jumps.

Any ideas?

[TonyP]

Tony,
I am trying to figure out a way to seperate class more in my results. My problem right now is that I can separate results for, Maidens, Claims, ALlowances and Stakes. I can pull MaidenCLaimer, I can OptionalCLaimers separate as well.

But the class from track to track is so different, the bottom level claimer at EMD is 2500, while the bottom claimer at Belmont is like 10000 or something. There are so many #'s in the claim and Allowance races that I can't auto distinguish the class jumps.

Any ideas?

not sure , will think about when not cappin as recently I was trying to do something similar with class at different tracks. Will ask around as well

[MrBrown]

Way back in the day when we had to make our own speed figures we used the avg. winning speed figure for 6 furlongs as a base for class separations between all the tracks.
Example was Garden State 8k claimer avg 6 fur win time earned s/f of 78.
At Bowie 12k cl 6 fur earned s/f of 78.
Aquaduct 6k cl 6 fur earned s/f of 78.
So we knew a Bowie 12k race was about equal to a 8k at GS and 6k at Aq.
For Allowance and MdSpwt and Starter handicap races we used the purses.

Maybe something along those lines might work for you

[str]

Way back in the day when we had to make our own speed figures we used the avg. winning speed figure for 6 furlongs as a base for class separations between all the tracks.
Example was Garden State 8k claimer avg 6 fur win time earned s/f of 78.
At Bowie 12k cl 6 fur earned s/f of 78.
Aquaduct 6k cl 6 fur earned s/f of 78.
So we knew a Bowie 12k race was about equal to a 8k at GS and 6k at Aq.
For Allowance and MdSpwt and Starter handicap races we used the purses.

Maybe something along those lines might work for you

Yes we did !!

[MrBrown]

Yes we did !!

LOL, the time I spent at it I coulda went to Med school!
But I loved every second of it though

[TonyP]

Way back in the day when we had to make our own speed figures we used the avg. winning speed figure for 6 furlongs as a base for class separations between all the tracks.
Example was Garden State 8k claimer avg 6 fur win time earned s/f of 78.
At Bowie 12k cl 6 fur earned s/f of 78.
Aquaduct 6k cl 6 fur earned s/f of 78.
So we knew a Bowie 12k race was about equal to a 8k at GS and 6k at Aq.
For Allowance and MdSpwt and Starter handicap races we used the purses.

Maybe something along those lines might work for you

I was thinking the same thing some similar

[str]

LOL, the time I spent at it I coulda went to Med school!
But I loved every second of it though

• 
  

[BGboothA]

Hmmm, that would work, I could figure out a to find equilvalencies then write the code that matches them up to find out a class setup.

[BGboothA]

Sorry boys,

I just got some free time and I am going to run some tracks for Tomorrow Saturday the 21st. Thinking, Parx, Saratoga, Del Mar, Emerald, where else you guys want?