[BGboothA]

A little background. I have been working on a horse betting system for two years. So far this year (starting Middle of April)we have had a great deal of success. More than doubling our bankroll since.

HOwever, we are getting killed when dealing with first time starters. For the mean time we have simply stopped betting on races with FTS or if there is only 1 we include them in our exotics.

But I am curious, how do you guys Cap First Timers.....

Joey???? (since part of my excel sheet is named after you, maybe you can help)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good question for STR or MikeMca. I usually look at the tote board for any clues to see if the FTS is taking any money. Of course, I also look at pedigree, workouts, etc. But it's tough, you may just want to continue leaving out the FTS's.

[JakeLc]

If the horses who have run have not run par or close to it for that race it opens the door for a first-starter

[cecil127]

as a self proclaimed PP nut the FTS drive me nuts, but like you ive learned to throw them in the exacta boxes...save yourself the ulcer, right?
other than that i really have nothing to add other than wishing you continued success and glad to see you posting BG
drop us a pick every now and then...speaking of which: who do you like in the preakness? (not meaning to hijack the thread)

[BGboothA]

We haven't run our preakness numbers at this point. I will be posting all my weekend picks. The problem (and don't tell my boss) is that I we run our numbers at work. And work blocks SBR, so I can't post the picks here on the weekdays.

A little history, cause I have time this morning. Myself and two friends really got into horse racing about 3 years ago. We started to have a great deal of fun looking deep into PPs and seeing what we could come up with. Turned out we all three started coming up with similar picks and we sat down and wanted to break down why. We have no written an excel Macro program that does 95% of our handicapping for us, after importing PPs.

This year Starting when EMD opened (our home track) we have ran our numbers Wed-Sun with great success (except FTS). (We are also showing negative ROI on Turf races, but since those are a small sample size we are ready to give up on them yet).

But in short, yes picks will be coming soon!

[wtt0315]

Hardest thing to bet in horses. I usually will only bet them when they are in a field that has done nothing.

[mikemca]

If your trying to be consistent I would weigh it heavily by trainers stats with FTS.Pedigree is important but some trainers can get anything to win right away(Wesley Ward).Every track has their trainer who excels with FTS so most of them will get bet but they will win 20%-25%.

If you want to get some price horses then there is the sires who are win early sires like

Wildcat Heir
Successful Appeal
Five Star Day
City Zip
Speightstown
Indian Charlie

There are many more these are just off top of my head but sometimes their blood makes them run fast right away despite a mediocre trainer.If mom and dad were both good right out of the box then odds are they will pass on the gene.

As for workouts I would use them very cautiously unless you get a workout report from a clocker.Trainers will often work their horses in a jog for the first half of the work and then have them finish fast.So in the form it will appear slower than the horses whose trainers had them run the whole time.Only a clocker will break it down by the splits .

[brucedenton]

Good thread guys!

[BGboothA]

MIke, great point about the Workouts...when we first started getting into this, I was relying pretty heavily on workouts....and then I was at a track one morning (with my daughter for a barn tour) and actually saw horses 'working out'. It is far from a real measure of anything. They all workout differently, a 4f workout from one horse could be completely different than a 4f workout from another horse.

[floridagolfer]

When it comes to first-time starters, I like to see which of them have workouts out of the gate. I note those horses that have more than one workout from the gate and were in the top half of the horses working out at that distance that day.

A first-time starter with no gate workouts? To me, that's asking for trouble.

[daoilman]

If your trying to be consistent I would weigh it heavily by trainers stats with FTS.Pedigree is important but some trainers can get anything to win right away(Wesley Ward).Every track has their trainer who excels with FTS so most of them will get bet but they will win 20%-25%.

If you want to get some price horses then there is the sires who are win early sires like

Wildcat Heir
Successful Appeal
Five Star Day
City Zip
Speightstown
Indian Charlie

There are many more these are just off top of my head but sometimes their blood makes them run fast right away despite a mediocre trainer.If mom and dad were both good right out of the box then odds are they will pass on the gene.

As for workouts I would use them very cautiously unless you get a workout report from a clocker.Trainers will often work their horses in a jog for the first half of the work and then have them finish fast.So in the form it will appear slower than the horses whose trainers had them run the whole time.Only a clocker will break it down by the splits .

Above is some really good advice when talking FTS's, also, note the the riders of FTS's, the last thing you want is an inexperienced rider on an inexperienced horse, definitely a negative ROI.

Also, it is advised to be careful with older FTS's, it doesn't happen often, but sometimes 4 and even 5 year old FTS's will appear, again, these types are historically a negative ROI.

[str]

When it comes to first-time starters, I like to see which of them have workouts out of the gate. I note those horses that have more than one workout from the gate and were in the top half of the horses working out at that distance that day.

A first-time starter with no gate workouts? To me, that's asking for trouble.

You would think that your angle would make sense . It sounds very logical. But I want you be beware. All horses must break well enough from the gate prior to being allowed to race. The head starter will give you a gate card once you have passed all of the requirements. Walking in, standing, backing out, breaking with other horses, breaking inside and outside. All of this is done believe it or not, before the gate card is given. For most trainers, the horses get upset and worked up when breaking too often from the gate. They get all fired up. What many of us used too do is get the gate card a month before running our 1st race and give the horse a little time to settle down around the gate by taking them there but standing them only , backing out, then repeating that process 3-4 times while there that day and leaving without breaking,doing so twice a week for 3 weeks so as to get them to relax at the gate instead of getting frazzled with each trip.
The potential problem with repeat gate breaks for workouts is that the trainer, unless that is his pattern with all babies, is showing you that there exists a problem in or around the gate that needs more attention than most horses. It is really important to know the trainer's habits with young horses if at all possible.
Hope that helps.

[str]

If your trying to be consistent I would weigh it heavily by trainers stats with FTS.Pedigree is important but some trainers can get anything to win right away(Wesley Ward).Every track has their trainer who excels with FTS so most of them will get bet but they will win 20%-25%.

If you want to get some price horses then there is the sires who are win early sires like

Wildcat Heir
Successful Appeal
Five Star Day
City Zip
Speightstown
Indian Charlie

There are many more these are just off top of my head but sometimes their blood makes them run fast right away despite a mediocre trainer.If mom and dad were both good right out of the box then odds are they will pass on the gene.

As for workouts I would use them very cautiously unless you get a workout report from a clocker.Trainers will often work their horses in a jog for the first half of the work and then have them finish fast.So in the form it will appear slower than the horses whose trainers had them run the whole time.Only a clocker will break it down by the splits .

This is 100% accurate advise. Great advise Mike !

[daoilman]

I'd like to add something to the gate work discussion in that if a FTS has both gate works and blinkers on it might be a live runner, be nice to know who the rider was for the gate work, the stable work rider or the journeyman who will have the mount for the first start. As we know, most maiden race are won by horses on or near the front end, not many young, inexperienced horses know how to rate efficiently, hence kickers don't fare well in maiden races, this is not to say that closers never win in maidens, just that it is not very probable.

Now, all of that being said, if we can know that the FTS gate work included both the blinkers and the same race day rider (most of those guys don't like getting around in the AM for work tab assignments), well, that tells us that the horse is well meant and in all likelihood the horse will be on or near the front on race day.

[str]

I'd like to add something to the gate work discussion in that if a FTS has both gate works and blinkers on it might be a live runner, be nice to know who the rider was for the gate work, the stable work rider or the journeyman who will have the mount for the first start. As we know, most maiden race are won by horses on or near the front end, not many young, inexperienced horses know how to rate efficiently, hence kickers don't fare well in maiden races, this is not to say that closers never win in maidens, just that it is not very probable.

Now, all of that being said, if we can know that the FTS gate work included both the blinkers and the same race day rider (most of those guys don't like getting around in the AM for work tab assignments), well, that tells us that the horse is well meant and in all likelihood the horse will be on or near the front on race day.

Most FTS at all but the elite meets will not have a jockey on them for morning work from the gate. They will however , be worked out by the jockey too be, from the pole if they are hopeful nice horses. Doubtfull that many 25k or less maiden claimers will have had the jock beforehand. If a FTS is running in blinkers, he would have had to have worked from the gate with blinkers. Blinkers can most certainly be a sign that the trainer is pointing for a big effort first out but not necessarily. This is where trainer patterns really come into play. Some trainers run almost all FTS with blinkers. Some never do. It comes down to the overall objective of the outfit. A settling, relaxing type trainer will not press so much about winning the 1st time out and allow the horse to gain experience before putting blinkers on. Other outfits really want to win 1st out whenever possible. This is where a trainers mindset and previous results really come into play.
It's not so much that the jockeys don't want to get out in the AM although some really don't like too. It more has to do with the risk factor of getting on an unseasoned horse. Off the pole is a much safer avenue than climbing on a baby and going to the gate. But when you talk about a Wesley Ward firster or something like that, the outfit really points for that and rest assured, the rider has been around the track a few times on the horse prior to running.
It would be great if rider info was available for workouts to the public. It should be in all fairness.
Hope that helps.