1. 03-28-12 10:06 AM #1
    daoilman
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    Ed Bain Discussion Thread

    In this thread we will discuss ways in which the Bain past performances enhance our selection process. Any and all are welcome to join in, any observations regarding trends are welcome, all Bain selections are welcome. Lets see just what we can accomplish using the Bain stats.

    General discussion of how best to use information found within Bain stats is also needed, discussion of overlay betting is encouraged, you think you see an overlay, please tip us off. The Bain Odds Table follows.

    Bain employ an odds percentage table to know when to bet the statistic as an overlay. As an example, the Automatics have a 40% win rate that equates to 3/2 odds. Bain passes the bet if it drops to 7/5, which is a 42% hit rate and a mathematical underlay.

    ODDS % TABLE
    Odds Decimal Percentage Pay Out
    1-10 0.10 90% $2.20
    1-5 0.20 83% $2.40
    2-5 0.40 71% $2.80
    1-2 0.50 67% $3.00
    3-5 0.60 63% $3.20
    4-5 0.80 56% $3.60
    1-1 1.00 50% $4.00
    6-5 1.20 45% $4.40
    7-5 1.40 42% $4.80
    3-2 1.50 40% $5.00
    8-5 1.60 38% $5.20
    9-5 1.80 36% $5.60
    2-1 2.00 33% $6.00
    5-2 2.50 29% $7.00
    3-1 3.00 25% $8.00
    7-2 3.50 22% $9.00
    4-1 4.00 20% $10.00
    9-2 4.50 18% $11.00
    5-1 5.00 17% $12.00
    6-1 6.00 14% $14.00
    7-1 7.00 13% $16.00
    8-1 8.00 11% $18.00
    9-1 9.00 10% $20.00
    10-1 10.00 9% $22.00
    11-1 11.00 8% $24.00
    12-1 12.00 7% $26.00
    15-1 15.00 6% $32.00
    20-1 20.00 5% $42.00
    25-1 25.00 4% $52.00
    30-1 30.00 3% $62.00
    50-1 50.00 2% $102.00
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  2. 03-28-12 10:25 AM #2
    daoilman
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    Lets start by looking at today's Bain automatics, as we know from the first post, autos hit at a 40% rate, thus odds of a least 3/2 are required at post time for us to bet any automatic.


    As we can see, we have 16 possible bets that are not morning line favorites, and 6 possible bets that are morning line favorites, today we have 22 total possible plays.

    Critical to those who follow will be watching very closely the post time or closing odds, as this is what we will use to determine if we bet.

    As we learn more we will attempt to get to where Bain is, betting only the 5 best bets of the those that are available on any given day, although it is not yet understandable how to narrow the field since we must make many of our desicions at post time.
    Last edited by daoilman; 03-28-12 at 10:44 AM.
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  3. 03-28-12 10:39 AM #3
    Arletta
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    I keep getting Internal error 500 code.. Anyone else?
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  4. 03-28-12 10:42 AM #4
    daoilman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arletta View Post
    I keep getting Internal error 500 code.. Anyone else?
    Me too, I hope I didn't screw something up posting those links above? Everything was working fine prior to my posting those links. Maybe I need to edit the post?
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  5. 03-28-12 10:45 AM #5
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Yeah, I am getting the same message. Hopefully it will back up soon.
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  6. 03-28-12 10:56 AM #6
    daoilman
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    Well, we know for sure that the horse Emily's Twist in the 1st at Aqueduct is an automatic, at issue will be closing odds, we must get at least 3/2 on this selection before we can bet, currently the odds are 6-5, thus making this a no bet situation, if the odds drift up prior to post we might be inclined to reconsider our options.
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  7. 03-28-12 11:26 AM #7
    MrBrown
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    I've used Bain for quite awhile, he's been around a long time.
    My capping is ALWAYS based on Trainers and his site leans strongly in that direction.
    Bain one of the few that do and a huge advantage over JoeQ bettor that spends hours capping the horses instead of trainers, imo
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  8. 03-28-12 11:29 AM #8
    daoilman
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    I've used Bain for quite awhile, he's been around a long time.
    My capping is ALWAYS based on Trainers and his site leans strongly in that direction.
    Bain one of the few that do and a huge advantage over JoeQ bettor that spends hours capping the horses instead of trainers, imo
    Thank you for your input MrBrown, hopefully you will be a regular in this thread, an experienced user of Bain stats would be a huge asset in here.
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  9. 03-28-12 11:34 AM #9
    MrBrown
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    welcome, i can offer a few tips, after the TB races tonight i can if you wish, one thing i can say, Bain is a very powerful tool to beat the public, the best imo and I've been around a long time. this 6/7/9 TB 1st hookup is Bain/my pick for p3 dd boxes, extacta too
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  10. 03-28-12 11:43 AM #10
    daoilman
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    MrBrown, could I ask, are you able access to the Bain stats now? As some here a unable to use it (505 error code), also, does Bain often have server issues?

    Thanks
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  11. 03-28-12 11:44 AM #11
    Arletta
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    It's driving me nuts! Or Nuttier..lol
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  12. 03-28-12 11:46 AM #12
    Arletta
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    I've used Bain for quite awhile, he's been around a long time.
    My capping is ALWAYS based on Trainers and his site leans strongly in that direction.
    Bain one of the few that do and a huge advantage over JoeQ bettor that spends hours capping the horses instead of trainers, imo
    It sure helped you stay alive in that Hawthorne contest... How did you end up by the way?
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  13. 03-28-12 11:48 AM #13
    Arletta
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    welcome, i can offer a few tips, after the TB races tonight i can if you wish, one thing i can say, Bain is a very powerful tool to beat the public, the best imo and I've been around a long time. this 6/7/9 TB 1st hookup is Bain/my pick for p3 dd boxes, extacta too
    Most excellent price on that 9... Came in 9-6-5.

    Hope you had $$ on that 9!
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  14. 03-28-12 11:53 AM #14
    MrBrown
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    nope site down now for me too, i did them last night, 2nd race was 3 6 7 i'm pretty sure is what i saw, if comes back up i'll let you know for sure...one thing you want to look at besides trainers % is the YELLOW PAR times in the horses box combined with that trainer angle... me i box 3 in the exotics so the order of finish is unimportant to me as long as one wins, obviously i want the longest shot to win, as happened in the 1st with the #9 score at 15-1
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  15. 03-28-12 11:55 AM #15
    MrBrown
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    yes it did help in the HAW contest, i lost on my 16th pick, i finished in 8th place i believe, out of almost 1600 so yes guys, this stuff works
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  16. 03-28-12 11:55 AM #16
    daoilman
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    happened in the 1st with the #9 score at 15-1
    That was a beautiful overlay, nice hit!
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  17. 03-28-12 11:58 AM #17
    daoilman
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    this stuff works
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  18. 03-28-12 12:00 PM #18
    Arletta
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    yes it did help in the HAW contest, i lost on my 16th pick, i finished in 8th place i believe, out of almost 1600 so yes guys, this stuff works
    Oh Wow! That's excellent! Congrats even though you didn't win. Those contests are not easy to stay in.
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  19. 03-28-12 12:04 PM #19
    Arletta
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    nope site down now for me too, i did them last night, 2nd race was 3 6 7 i'm pretty sure is what i saw, if comes back up i'll let you know for sure...one thing you want to look at besides trainers % is the YELLOW PAR times in the horses box combined with that trainer angle... me i box 3 in the exotics so the order of finish is unimportant to me as long as one wins, obviously i want the longest shot to win, as happened in the 1st with the #9 score at 15-1
    Cha ching!!!!
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  20. 03-28-12 12:05 PM #20
    daoilman
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrBrown View Post
    2nd race was 3 6 7 i'm pretty sure is what i saw
    This stuff is crazy good, amazing.

    1st 7 ROMEO AGAIN $10.00 $3.80 $2.60
    2nd 6 HOME FIELD $2.40 $2.10
    3rd 3 FIFTH STREET $2.20
    4th 4 CAFE DES ARTISTES
    Other Payouts
    $2 EX (7/6) paid $21.00
    $2 TRI (7/6/3) paid $35.00
    $2 SPR (7/6/3/4) paid $159.80
    $2 DD (9/7) paid $149.60
    RACE #2 Purse: $21700
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  21. 03-28-12 12:06 PM #21
    MrBrown
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    uuuum 9/7 dd $149 and ALIVE in the P3
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  22. 03-28-12 12:07 PM #22
    daoilman
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    I hope they get the site back up real soon, I sure would like to get in there and snoop around a little bit.
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  23. 03-28-12 12:07 PM #23
    Arletta
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    Quote Originally Posted by daoilman View Post
    Well, we know for sure that the horse Emily's Twist in the 1st at Aqueduct is an automatic, at issue will be closing odds, we must get at least 3/2 on this selection before we can bet, currently the odds are 6-5, thus making this a no bet situation, if the odds drift up prior to post we might be inclined to reconsider our options.
    And yet another winner.
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  24. 03-28-12 12:09 PM #24
    daoilman
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    It seems to be working now.
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  25. 03-28-12 12:09 PM #25
    Arletta
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    Site's back up... whoo Whoo!!
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  26. 03-28-12 12:25 PM #26
    daoilman
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    Maybe flat the #6 in the 3rd at Tampa?
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  27. 03-28-12 12:30 PM #27
    Arletta
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    Quote Originally Posted by daoilman View Post
    Maybe flat the #6 in the 3rd at Tampa?
    #3 For me
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  28. 03-28-12 12:38 PM #28
    Arletta
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    Well... Poop. Might be a DH for 3rd with the 6.
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  29. 03-28-12 12:39 PM #29
    Arletta
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    Yep
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  30. 03-28-12 12:47 PM #30
    MrBrown
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    sorry got booted so its after the fact, but to me Bain top trainers %'s 4 5 7 8 in 3rd, using the YELLOW PAR times (1st 1/4 and 2nd 1/4 most important) to separate we get #4 5 8 as top 3 choices in 3rd.
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  31. 03-28-12 12:47 PM #31
    daoilman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arletta View Post
    Yep
    I guess we need more practice at our interpertation.
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  32. 03-28-12 01:01 PM #32
    MrBrown
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    it takes a few days practice but you'll see that trainers are most important, then you can use the YELLOW par times to separate... the best trainers in 4th are 5 6 7 8, using par times i see 7 scratched so 5 6 8 if boxing
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  33. 03-28-12 01:14 PM #33
    MrBrown
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    8/6 hit in 4th, r3/4 dd 5/8= $30, stringing together winners out of top 3 selections
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  34. 03-28-12 01:28 PM #34
    daoilman
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    Yeah man, it is amazing, I just hit at Gulf for half of a 90$ exacta, and just hit half the exacta at Aqueduct.
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  35. 03-28-12 01:46 PM #35
    MrBrown
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    good hit dao,sweet! Bain was 4 3 6 in 5th TB the way I use it Trainer/Par... 5 string now, P4 hit for $275 for $1, $1 P3 for $75
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