Breeders Cup 2015 "World Championships"

**Jowframs** · 10-25-15, 07:35 PM

Might have to work Friday
If I do will post wed or Thursday for the 4 Breeders Cup Races....Glta

**sshz** · 10-26-15, 01:50 PM

Good luck back at you....I'll be following along. Can you explain the criteria used regarding the Longshot system?

For the 1st time, I'm using a website, Predicteform.com to help my wagering. Although the site doesn't necessarily look to choose winners, it concentrates more on predicting the horses form specifically looking at horses that are holding OR are on the improve. Yesterday, for example at Santa Anita, they had 7 of 9 winners in their top 3 horses. I also like the fact that they incorporate odds looking for VALUE too.

**Jowframs** · 10-26-15, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by sshz

Good luck back at you....I'll be following along. Can you explain the criteria used regarding the Longshot system?

For the 1st time, I'm using a website, Predicteform.com to help my wagering. Although the site doesn't necessarily look to choose winners, it concentrates more on predicting the horses form specifically looking at horses that are holding OR are on the improve. Yesterday, for example at Santa Anita, they had 7 of 9 winners in their top 3 horses. I also like the fact that they incorporate odds looking for VALUE too.

Cool Lets Cash some tickets

**Heppy10** · 10-26-15, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by sshz

Good luck back at you....I'll be following along. Can you explain the criteria used regarding the Longshot system?

For the 1st time, I'm using a website, Predicteform.com to help my wagering. Although the site doesn't necessarily look to choose winners, it concentrates more on predicting the horses form specifically looking at horses that are holding OR are on the improve. Yesterday, for example at Santa Anita, they had 7 of 9 winners in their top 3 horses. I also like the fact that they incorporate odds looking for VALUE too.

Who you be able to post their BC races?

**sshz** · 10-26-15, 05:01 PM

I'll be happy to, but to utilize properly, you'll need to go to their website and review what everything means. Or, just take it on face value. I did post the Classic page elsewhere, but here it is again. Remember though, the VALUE of the system comes after you enter the odds. Then the program analyzes it all and lists the choices in order. Here's what's currently up on the Classic page:

Conditions: BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC. Grade I. Purse $5,000,000 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 122 lbs., Older, 126 lbs., Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 117 lbs., Older, 126 lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 lbs. $50,000 to pre-enter, $50,000 to enter, with guaranteed $5 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 18% to second, 10% to third, 6% to fourth and 3% to fifth, plus travel awards to starters not based in Kentucky.
Post Time: 5:35 PM ET
Race Analyzer: Analyze Race

Basic
Advanced
Value Plays

Sort: ValueHorse NamePlay TypePatternAverage Final Pace FigureAverage 4F Pace FigureProgram NumberPost PositionRacesDays Since Last RaceMost Recent Final Pace FigureMost Recent 4F Pace FigureTop Final Pace FigureMorning LineValue

Tonalist	14	28	1	Top Contender	SOFT	76.9	67.2	w76.4	59.7	81.0	10
Keen Ice	11	63	2	Fringe Contender	SOFT	73.6	64.9	w79.0	62.6	80.2	8
Beholder	20	35	3	Breakout	SOFT	74.4	73.2	w75.9	69.0	79.3	2
American Pharoah	10	63	4	Average		77.1	73.0	78.7	67.8	82.0	1
Frosted	12	42	5	Average		74.0	67.0	w78.5	64.3	80.0	4
Honor Code	10	28	6	Average		75.7	62.8	76.4	67.5	81.1	7
Effinex	18	28	7	Too Slow		73.0	67.7	71.7	60.7	79.8	3
Hard Aces	25	35	8	Too Slow		72.2	66.8	74.1	58.8	77.3	6
Smooth Roller	4	35	9	Too Slow		75.2	67.3	w78.4	61.1	78.4	9
Gleneagles	0	-	-	-		-	-			-	5

Value Plays: PP 10, Tonalist - PP 8, Keen Ice - PP 2, Beholder - PP 1, American Pharoah

**sshz** · 10-26-15, 05:07 PM

There is actually a lot of info incorporated in there, go to www.predicteform.com for the basics- it's quite helpful. As you can see, the ML (morning line) or you can put it current odds on race day- are not currently listed but they will be as we get closer. I should also mention, the way I bet, I would have hit a $709 trifecta and had a $62 winner among other things IF I was playing on Saturday, which I wasn't. They do give free days of racing info away if you sign up once in a while. The whiole Breeders Cup package was only $30 for Fri/Sat, not a bad deal. I don't want to step on Jows toes here, I may just start my own thread and list the races there. I have to think about it as there are a lot of races to post........

So back to the results, it obviously is favoring Tonalist to win, Keen Ice for 2nd and so on. Their top 2 picks are in the top 3 horses on average between 50-60% of the time which is not bad I guess. I expect that average will go down as the horse fields will be 12-14 in most races though. I usually go deeper, maybe do 6 horses in a trifecta box or fewer horses in an excta box, depending on horse odds, my opinions, etc.

**mikemca** · 10-26-15, 05:13 PM

Pretty crazy that just about every horse i had my eye on drew either furthest outside or 1 post in from outside. Golden Horn is next to a lock now with inside draw. Only probable fave im not trying to beat.

**Heppy10** · 10-26-15, 05:23 PM

Im just starting to study the races, one of my favorite times of the year, so many good horses though, always open for more info to narrow them down

**sshz** · 10-26-15, 06:28 PM

I'm not sure post position have all been picked or the info listed in accurate......I'd give it a day or two to update.

As long as the race is long enough, I feel it's usually better to have your horse towards the outside so 1) the horse can avoid early traffic leading into the turn and 2) it gives the jockey a better view of the other horses and can manipulate his position better.

Tonight or tomorrow I'll start a thread called Predicteform and list all the Breeder Cup races right in a row. Then on each race day, I'll do a simple update listing the final choices in order of pick/value. That makes most sense to me I think and will be easier for most people.

**Jowframs** · 10-26-15, 06:38 PM

Routes inside
Sprints outside....Have worked for me
gl

**sshz** · 10-26-15, 07:29 PM

Makes sense since routes your saving ground early and early position isn't as important.

**Jowframs** · 10-27-15, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by mikemca

Pretty crazy that just about every horse i had my eye on drew either furthest outside or 1 post in from outside. Golden Horn is next to a lock now with inside draw. Only probable fave im not trying to beat.

FYI Mike....to my knowledge no horse that has won the
Triomphe has won a Breeders Cup Race...Gl

**Heppy10** · 10-27-15, 01:04 PM

Curious does anyone have the PP's for all the breeders races they can post?

**mikemca** · 10-27-15, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Jowframs

FYI Mike....to my knowledge no horse that has won the
Triomphe has won a Breeders Cup Race...Gl

Looks like they are 0 for 5 in the BC Turf with the last one to try being Dylan Thomas in 2007 finishing 5th.Only 1 of the 5 finished ITM. Overall Arc winners are 0 for 10 in all Breeders Cup races. However there have been 4 winners of BC Turf that ran and lost in Arc with Found 8-1 being this years horse .

**sshz** · 10-27-15, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by Heppy10

Curious does anyone have the PP's for all the breeders races they can post?

By tomorrow I'll have a link for all the races......ill let you know.

**StackinGreen** · 10-28-15, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by sshz

By tomorrow I'll have a link for all the races......ill let you know.

I have Bris, but I'm looking for the DRF PPs and maybe even the clocker report if anyone has it.

Thanks guys. Heppy, have you find any yet?

**mikemca** · 10-28-15, 10:49 AM

This is probably the only 2 days where a clocker report is next to meaningless and I use them all the time. Everyone has been aiming for this weekend and if they weren't doing good they wouldn't run. Plus no Maiden races at all which is what clocker reports are best for imo.

**Jowframs** · 10-28-15, 09:11 PM

Only Two Horses Fit the Longshot-System Pattern For Fridays Breeders Cup Races

7th Race-BC Dirt Mile
#1-Red Vine. 6-1

9th Race-Bc Distaff
#6-My Sweet Addiction 20-1

**floridagolfer** · 10-29-15, 10:44 AM

Beholder has been scratched from the Classic.

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Beholder has been scratched from the Classic.

Wow.....Big Scratch

**sshz** · 10-29-15, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Only Two Horses Fit the Longshot-System Pattern For Fridays Breeders Cup Races

7th Race-BC Dirt Mile
#1-Red Vine.

9th Race-Bc Distaff
#6-My Sweet Addiction

You can't really say either of these horses is a L-S by any stretch of the imagination.........

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by sshz

You can't really say either of these horses is a L-S by any stretch of the imagination.........

ML Longshot

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 09:56 PM

Here we go this is what I played ........Friday so far

6th Race-BC Juvenile Turf
ex Wheel. 7,10,12,15 w7,810,12,15($16.00)

Win Only.

#7-Rays The Bar,#12-Camelot Kitten. (Chad Brown Combo)

#10-Conquest Daddyo (Mark. Casse hitting at 31%,good enough for me)

#15-Sheikh of Sheikhs(Gets in off the also-eligible,Dangerous,Wesley Ward)Scratched

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 10:16 PM

7th-BC Dirt Mile

Ex-Wheel. 1,8,5,2w1,8,5,2,4

Win Bet

#1-Red Vine(Clemente,Sitting on a Win,2nd top Mud Number)
#2-Bradester(Beaten Fav Last,Lanerie Up)
#5-Lea(Beaten Fav Last,Top Trainer)
#4-Mr Z(Never Leave a Lukas Horse out in a Breeders Cup)

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 10:35 PM

8th-BC Juvenile Fillies

Ex-Wheel-2,5,7,8w2,5,7,8,4
Win Bet
#2-Thrilled(will enjoy cozy inside post,missed by a nose last,Top Trainer)
#5-Ruby Notion(blinkers off/Wesley Ward)
#7-Sapphire Kitten(Just missed over the track)
#8-Harmonize(Won at this track last time out,Bill Mott)

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 10:47 PM

9th-Breeders Cup Distaff

ex-wheel. 1,6,9,12W1,6,9,12,15

#1-Iam a Chatterbox(broke maiden at Keeneland,Jones)
#6-My Sweet Addiction(sitting on a win)
#9-Stellar Wind(Sadler/Espinoza Combo)
#12-Got Lucky(won over the Track)

**Justin_sane** · 10-29-15, 10:59 PM

I'm fading all cali horses, could be bad or could be glorious

**Jowframs** · 10-29-15, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Justin_sane

I'm fading all cali horses, could be bad or could be glorious

Be Careful......Doug Oneil has had a helluva year
Gltu

**Jowframs** · 10-30-15, 06:17 PM

-$88.00....Day 1

**CWD** · 10-30-15, 10:58 PM

beholders scratch has sucked the life out of this BC. going 2 take its as a sign and pasadena on all, its setting up for AP to go out win a big win imo just has that feel. travers you could feel something was up, here not at all.

**Jowframs** · 10-30-15, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by CWD

beholders scratch has sucked the life out of this BC. going 2 take its as a sign and pasadena on all, its setting up for AP to go out win a big win imo just has that feel. travers you could feel something was up, here not at all.

Hate to say it American Pharoah will not win that race

**CWD** · 10-31-15, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Hate to say it American Pharoah will not win that race

who you like? i cant get a feel on this one, like i said it has that hollywood ending type feel right now

**Jowframs** · 10-31-15, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by CWD

who you like? i cant get a feel on this one, like i said it has that hollywood ending type feel right now

I will post about 20-30 min before race.....Leans Keen Ice

**Jowframs** · 10-31-15, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Only Two Horses Fit the Longshot-System Pattern For Fridays Breeders Cup Races

7th Race-BC Dirt Mile
#1-Red Vine. 6-1 3rd

9th Race-Bc Distaff
#6-My Sweet Addiction 20-1. Out of money,Stumbled start

No luck here