This is a completely different bet.
The bet I made was dependent on the outcome of 2 events where this bet is dependent on the outcome of only one event. Obviously had we known before hand that Rapid Redux had a 100% probability to win todays race it would be safe to say that I made a bad bet, but if we knew before hand that there was a 100% probability that he win the race as a Kelley bettor I would have risked 100% of my bankroll on Rapid Redux to win no matter what the odds.
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With that said I am still content with the original bet as RR closed at 1-5 which means that my original assessment was correct by assuming that RR likely had less than an 83% chance of winning each individual leg of the parlay. Considering that at odds of 1-5 and assuming a close to efficient betting market the market was saying that at best RR only had an 83% chance to win.
Assuming that RR runs another race at odds of 1-5 or better we can assume that the probability of winning 2 races would be roughly 69.39% (.8333 * .8333) not considering the possibility of injury or decision to not push the horse to run another race within 18 days. At +195 my original wager needed to have a 33.9% chance of winning in order to have been a fair price meaning that I only needed for there to be a 5% probability that RR not run another race in 2012 (1 - (.6939 - (.6939 * .05)) = 1 - (.6939 - .034695)= 1 - .659205 =
.340795 I think it is safe to say that prior to the todays race that there was at least a 5% chance that RR would face possible injury or simply just choose not to run another race in 2011.
This works out great for everyone boys
-I am still confident that at the time of my wager I made a good bet considering the information we had at the time the bet was placed and even with todays loss my wager is still alive.
-After todays win there is still room for everyone to root for me to lose and come back in the end and say "I told you that a +200 dog would not win".