Preakness Play

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  • BGboothA
    SBR MVP
    • 08-07-08
    • 4202

    #1
    Preakness Play
    My philosophy when it comes to the Preakness is to look for value. The fact is, its going to take either a horrible trip, or a huge step down for California Chrome not to win this race by a few lengths. The good news is that we know this, the bad news is that so does 99% of the betting population. With this in mind, here is my three bets for the Preakness Stakes.

    $1 Tri 10 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
    $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 10 / 1,2,3,6,7
    $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 10
    Three Bets Totaling $40


    Three bets totaling $40 or you could also make the same bets with the $0.50 minimum bet for a total of $20. Now that may look like a string of numbers that look a little crazy, but let me explain my thinking.
    First and foremost, I love Ride On Curlin to hit the board here. He ran a great race in Kentucky considering he received a horrible ride from Calvin Borel. Once ROC bounced out from the rail and started to make his run, he destroyed the field and passed every horse that he encountered down the stretch and honestly looked like the second best horse in the field. With this in mind, I will be keying on ROC on Saturday. Most people will be keying on CC and yes CC is the safest bet to hit the board, but keying CC in your trifecta takes the grand slam out of play. CC will likely hit the board, heck 99% of the time this race is run, CC should at the least finish in the top three. But crazy happens and just in case crazy happens on Saturday, I want a shot at cashing a huge ticket.

    I can only imagine what a 7-6-10 trifecta would pay, but it would likely be close to 5 digits with the amount of money that will be on the combination of either California Chrome. Now some people would call me crazy, but once you start looking at this field. How crazy is it to think that CC gets pulled into a crazy pace set forth by Bayern, Social Inclusion, Ring Weekend and Pablo Del Monte allowing all of the closers an easy stretch run as the leaders all are gassed out before they hit the final 3/16 of a mile, it’s not likely, but it’s possible.
    My goal when creating these tickets is to cover the most likely scenarios while leaving open a few possibilities of those grand slam scenarios. This is a ticket that I think does just that. I have covered myself in the likely scenario that California Chrome wins easily, and the horses that I like the best to cover the back end of the trifecta. But I have also covered myself just in case some crazy happens, I have a couple chances of paying off the rest of my student loans.
  • Easy-Rider 66
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-14-12
    • 36098

    #2
    GL Booth. Just read Timeform's take on the race. They point out that ROC has had a number a bad trips. If Rosario can work out a decent ride, he may be a factor.
    Comment
    • harthebar
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-09-11
      • 15704

      #3
      Roc is my pick, with kid cruz getting in the super ...
      Originally posted by easy-rider 66
      gl booth. Just read timeform's take on the race. They point out that roc has had a number a bad trips. If rosario can work out a decent ride, he may be a factor.
      Comment
      • BGboothA
        SBR MVP
        • 08-07-08
        • 4202

        #4
        Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
        GL Booth. Just read Timeform's take on the race. They point out that ROC has had a number a bad trips. If Rosario can work out a decent ride, he may be a factor.
        "A number of bad trips" is an understatement!

        I have gone back and watched replays, but just look at his Comment line in the PPs

        9 wide
        Bumped Start 3-6 wide
        7wide pressed 3 wide
        4 wide - 3 wide
        6-7 wide
        off slow 4 wide
        broke slow

        Now post position 10 isn't giong to help him not have to go wide, but a decent trip could easily lead to a strong finish here.
        Comment
        • BGboothA
          SBR MVP
          • 08-07-08
          • 4202

          #5
          Click image for larger version

Name:	Pace Scenerio Preakness.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	39.2 KB
ID:	29124933

          Just a little fun, here is our Pace Profile for the race.
          Comment
          • str
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-12-09
            • 11717

            #6
            Originally posted by BGboothA
            "A number of bad trips" is an understatement!

            I have gone back and watched replays, but just look at his Comment line in the PPs

            9 wide
            Bumped Start 3-6 wide
            7wide pressed 3 wide
            4 wide - 3 wide
            6-7 wide
            off slow 4 wide
            broke slow

            Now post position 10 isn't giong to help him not have to go wide, but a decent trip could easily lead to a strong finish here.
            Remember, it does not matter how wide you are on straightaways. Wide only matters on turns and he should be able to be 2-3 wide tops into the 1st turn and likely better and 3 wide on the 2nd turn.

            So far this meet, wide has been preferable at Pimlico, a far cry from years past although it was never as bad as people thought except on days that the track was graded prior to weather or simply over graded. With no racing until tomorrow, YES, ,the track was certainly graded today as heavy rain is now upon Pimlico until late Friday night. But, you get to watch tomorrows races and judge for yourself how good or bad the rail might be. I would anticipate a strong speed, rail bias tomorrow especially early but if it was very deep to begin with, it might only be slight. Keep an eye on that and you might very well have an enjoyable Friday. Whatever it is on Friday, it will not be graded after Friday morning so the rail will only stay the same or eventually get worse over time. There is just no time to do so.

            Not saying it will, but the rail cannot improve after the 1st race on Friday. So let's watch and learn but expect a solid rail early Friday.

            Hope that helps.
            Comment
            • Easy-Rider 66
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 02-14-12
              • 36098

              #7
              Originally posted by BGboothA
              "A number of bad trips" is an understatement!

              I have gone back and watched replays, but just look at his Comment line in the PPs

              9 wide
              Bumped Start 3-6 wide
              7wide pressed 3 wide
              4 wide - 3 wide
              6-7 wide
              off slow 4 wide
              broke slow

              Now post position 10 isn't giong to help him not have to go wide, but a decent trip could easily lead to a strong finish here.
              Yeah I understated it. TF claimed he has been subject to one criminal trip after another. After looking at his 10 races I can see why.
              Comment
              • BGboothA
                SBR MVP
                • 08-07-08
                • 4202

                #8
                Originally posted by str
                Remember, it does not matter how wide you are on straightaways. Wide only matters on turns and he should be able to be 2-3 wide tops into the 1st turn and likely better and 3 wide on the 2nd turn.

                So far this meet, wide has been preferable at Pimlico, a far cry from years past although it was never as bad as people thought except on days that the track was graded prior to weather or simply over graded. With no racing until tomorrow, YES, ,the track was certainly graded today as heavy rain is now upon Pimlico until late Friday night. But, you get to watch tomorrows races and judge for yourself how good or bad the rail might be. I would anticipate a strong speed, rail bias tomorrow especially early but if it was very deep to begin with, it might only be slight. Keep an eye on that and you might very well have an enjoyable Friday. Whatever it is on Friday, it will not be graded after Friday morning so the rail will only stay the same or eventually get worse over time. There is just no time to do so.

                Not saying it will, but the rail cannot improve after the 1st race on Friday. So let's watch and learn but expect a solid rail early Friday.

                Hope that helps.
                THanks for the insight STR, love seeing your replies.
                Comment
                • Skrillz3412
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 11-18-12
                  • 99

                  #9
                  Originally posted by BGboothA
                  My philosophy when it comes to the Preakness is to look for value. The fact is, its going to take either a horrible trip, or a huge step down for California Chrome not to win this race by a few lengths. The good news is that we know this, the bad news is that so does 99% of the betting population. With this in mind, here is my three bets for the Preakness Stakes.

                  $1 Tri 10 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
                  $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 10 / 1,2,3,6,7
                  $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 10
                  Three Bets Totaling $40


                  Three bets totaling $40 or you could also make the same bets with the $0.50 minimum bet for a total of $20. Now that may look like a string of numbers that look a little crazy, but let me explain my thinking.
                  First and foremost, I love Ride On Curlin to hit the board here. He ran a great race in Kentucky considering he received a horrible ride from Calvin Borel. Once ROC bounced out from the rail and started to make his run, he destroyed the field and passed every horse that he encountered down the stretch and honestly looked like the second best horse in the field. With this in mind, I will be keying on ROC on Saturday. Most people will be keying on CC and yes CC is the safest bet to hit the board, but keying CC in your trifecta takes the grand slam out of play. CC will likely hit the board, heck 99% of the time this race is run, CC should at the least finish in the top three. But crazy happens and just in case crazy happens on Saturday, I want a shot at cashing a huge ticket.

                  I can only imagine what a 7-6-10 trifecta would pay, but it would likely be close to 5 digits with the amount of money that will be on the combination of either California Chrome. Now some people would call me crazy, but once you start looking at this field. How crazy is it to think that CC gets pulled into a crazy pace set forth by Bayern, Social Inclusion, Ring Weekend and Pablo Del Monte allowing all of the closers an easy stretch run as the leaders all are gassed out before they hit the final 3/16 of a mile, it’s not likely, but it’s possible.
                  My goal when creating these tickets is to cover the most likely scenarios while leaving open a few possibilities of those grand slam scenarios. This is a ticket that I think does just that. I have covered myself in the likely scenario that California Chrome wins easily, and the horses that I like the best to cover the back end of the trifecta. But I have also covered myself just in case some crazy happens, I have a couple chances of paying off the rest of my student loans.
                  I'm a guy who has never placed a horse racing wager before, and would like to tail you just for fun tomorrow, but I have no idea how to read the wagers you posted of :

                  $1 Tri 10 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
                  $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 10 / 1,2,3,6,7
                  $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 10
                  Three Bets Totaling $40

                  Would someone be so kind as to explain what those bets mean, how I can place them on bovada (if possible), and how the three $1 bets total $40? Thanks in advance!
                  Comment
                  • Easy-Rider 66
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 02-14-12
                    • 36098

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Skrillz3412
                    I'm a guy who has never placed a horse racing wager before, and would like to tail you just for fun tomorrow, but I have no idea how to read the wagers you posted of :

                    $1 Tri 10 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
                    $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 10 / 1,2,3,6,7
                    $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 10
                    Three Bets Totaling $40

                    Would someone be so kind as to explain what those bets mean, how I can place them on bovada (if possible), and how the three $1 bets total $40? Thanks in advance!
                    He is doing $1 Trifecta key with the #10 being his key in first place for the first one. They are all trifectas. Google horse betting trifecta key and you will find some useful info. GL.
                    Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 05-16-14, 10:54 PM.
                    Comment
                    • DDT
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-22-09
                      • 3757

                      #11
                      GL buddy
                      Comment
                      • wrongwaygoes
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 03-24-10
                        • 26

                        #12
                        Looking to play for the Preakness.....

                        $0.10 Superfectas ($8.00): If allowed to wager only a $1.00. If not, then I'll use / 3 8 10 / for $3.00 ($24.00)

                        1 / 3 8 / 3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9
                        3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9 / 1 / 3 8
                        3 8 / 1 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9 / 3 8
                        3 8 / 3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9 / 1
                        3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9 /3 8 / 1
                        3 8 / 3 8 / 1 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9
                        3 8 / 1 / 3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9
                        3 8 10 2 5 7 9 / 3 8 / 1 / 3 8

                        $1.00 Trifecta ($36.00)

                        3 8 / 1 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9
                        3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9 / 1
                        1 / 3 8 / 3 8 10 2 5 7 9

                        In case of muddy track conditions I'll be substituing Ride on Curlin for Social Inclusion with CC


                        My two cents worth!
                        Comment
                        • BGboothA
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-07-08
                          • 4202

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Skrillz3412
                          I'm a guy who has never placed a horse racing wager before, and would like to tail you just for fun tomorrow, but I have no idea how to read the wagers you posted of :

                          $1 Tri 10 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7
                          $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 10 / 1,2,3,6,7
                          $1 Tri 2,3,7 / 1,2,3,6,7 / 10
                          Three Bets Totaling $40

                          Would someone be so kind as to explain what those bets mean, how I can place them on bovada (if possible), and how the three $1 bets total $40? Thanks in advance!
                          I am making three different trifecta bets.

                          The first has the 10 in first with a combination of 4 horses who can come in second and 5 that can come in third.
                          The second bet is similar, but I have three possible winners, the 10 horse in second and then 5 possible third place finishers.
                          The third bet has the same 3 possible winners, and 5 horses who can come in second with the 10 in third.

                          Essentially I am lookingat the 10 as my key, he finishes in the top three and I have a good shot at a decent score. I think he has a great shot at hitting the board and scoring a good price.

                          If you walk up to teh window and just say the numbers where there is a / say "with" and your bet will be made.
                          Comment
                          • ghostcapper
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 05-21-11
                            • 20

                            #14
                            GL HBD, hopefully one of those hits
                            Comment
                            • Reno_Thor
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 04-12-12
                              • 525

                              #15
                              Trifecta paid $38.... <blegh>
                              Comment
                              • JJJ
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-03-11
                                • 2610

                                #16
                                any exotic with CC in it was gonna pay chalk
                                Originally posted by Reno_Thor
                                Trifecta paid $38.... <blegh>
                                Comment
                                • drfunkmaster
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-29-08
                                  • 11162

                                  #17
                                  05/17/2014 @ 05:10 PM RAC May-17 PIM R12 1.00 USD TRI 3/8/10

                                  i had this. i dont play horses it was a fun bet.
                                  Comment
                                  • BGboothA
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 08-07-08
                                    • 4202

                                    #18
                                    Yeah, ROC ran a great race! Got bumped 400 yards out and maybe could have been closer, but CC winning was basically a refund on the Tri bet
                                    Comment
                                    • El Sol
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 05-17-08
                                      • 876

                                      #19
                                      nice reaD on curlin, you know your stuff
                                      Comment
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