Breaking Down the 2014 Kentucky Derby

[MoneylineExpress]

Oaks/Derby Double
$75: #13 Untapable with #6 Samraat, #14 Medal Count
$10: #3 Sugar Shock, #4 Rosalind, #7 Fashion Plate with #6 Samraat, #14 Medal Count


Total Risked: $210

[Draynay]

So Danza picking up 8 pounds and his biggest field he faced was 7 horses, vs 19 others Saturday will be no problem?

He is coming into the Derby 3rd off a layoff and there is no reason he doesn't improve going 2 turns for the 2nd time. But like I said take note his last 100 yards in the Arkansas looked very fast. More distance will not be a problem. Danza is clearly the horse to beat and will have no problem being in the 2nd wave ready to pounce. Danza is the horse to beat Saturday. Who doesn't want a horse that can lay off the speed and pounce in the Derby ?

[nvrlose37]

A Fluke by 5 lengths going away ? Watch the Arkansas again and notice his best running starts 100 yards from the wire. Watch his race in Graded Stakes at Saratoga.... he loves to close. California Rust has looked sluggish at Churchill... no horse has looked better than DANZA.

My Miss Sophia for the win ... they will never catch her.

you wantto use an under mile race as evidence of his chance in the Derby? I saw the Ark derby, his run was impressive but he isn't going to find that space on the rail like that time.

He may have a chance but putting him at 8-1 is ridiculous.

[Draynay]

you wantto use an under mile race as evidence of his chance in the Derby? I saw the Ark derby, his run was impressive but he isn't going to find that space on the rail like that time.

He may have a chance but putting him at 8-1 is ridiculous.

I want to show you very early on the horse had talent. How many jump right from Maiden win to Graded Stakes and hit the board ? At Saratoga ? Are you counting on him doing worse going 2 turns the 2nd time he tries it ? He looks amazing on the track and he has more upside than any other horse in the Derby. All I heard for a month is how good Bayern was and how he won by 15 against winners in California. California horses must be a joke because DANZA crushed Bayern and he had things his own way up front.

[jt315]

Why don't you start your own thread and stay the F&$K out of this one.

[nvrlose37]

I want to show you very early on the horse had talent. How many jump right from Maiden win to Graded Stakes and hit the board ? At Saratoga ? Are you counting on him doing worse going 2 turns the 2nd time he tries it ? He looks amazing on the track and he has more upside than any other horse in the Derby. All I heard for a month is how good Bayern was and how he won by 15 against winners in California. California horses must be a joke because DANZA crushed Bayern and he had things his own way up front.

I do agree there, the hype on Bayern was a joke. He could never make the distance

[THam12]

Got an exacta box on 7 of your horses. Thanks for the feedback

[sandyw123]

I'm just not that sold on either Candy Boy, Wicked Strong, or Intense Holiday. I'm looking more at horses finishing stronger. Danza, Ride on Curlin, Wildcat Red, and California Chrome all have had higher speed figures late at the 1 1/8 mile distance. Granted, Wicked Strong beat Samraat in the Wood Memorial, but his late speed was only in the eighties. He could have been weakening, just not as much as Samraat. My questions are how far can Wildcat Red run, and how will California Chrome do away from home? I might put in a REAL longshot at 3rd or 4th, like Commanding Curve. He was gaining on Vicar's in Trouble and Intense Holiday in the Louisiana Derby to take 3rd and likes Churchill Downs.

[NJDfan1711]

This is a great thread and you and I are on pretty much the same wavelength MLExpress in terms of the rules/guidelines we both use to handicap and breakdown the race, however I just have to ask -- do you not put any stock or value into the jockey for each horse? I put a little, not a ton, of emphasis on whether or not a jockey has not run with a particular horse for more than a race or two, or sometimes not at all. That to me can be a red flag because I just don't know if you can read a horse and gauge how to run him if you've never done it before. The jockeys always say they can understand their horses and things like that, so you'd think maybe it might mean something.

[MoneylineExpress]

After the draw it is clear as day the horse to beat is Danza. I still think General A Rod fights to the wire but the draw has doomed the field Danza is your Derby winner.

Good luck with that. I think Danza has 0 chance to win. Go look back at the history of the Kentucky Derby. Horses that jump up and run a race out of nowhere coming into the derby (all time high speed figure by a wide margin), don't win the Derby. This also goes for #12 Dances With Fate and #20 Wicked Strong

[MoneylineExpress]

This is a great thread and you and I are on pretty much the same wavelength MLExpress in terms of the rules/guidelines we both use to handicap and breakdown the race, however I just have to ask -- do you not put any stock or value into the jockey for each horse? I put a little, not a ton, of emphasis on whether or not a jockey has not run with a particular horse for more than a race or two, or sometimes not at all. That to me can be a red flag because I just don't know if you can read a horse and gauge how to run him if you've never done it before. The jockeys always say they can understand their horses and things like that, so you'd think maybe it might mean something.

Yeah, you might have missed it. One reason I'm not a big fan of Intense Holiday and Velasquez jumping on him for the 1st time. It's not a winning angle.

[no1here]

California Chrome, shiny and bright but love the attempt

[MoneylineExpress]

Derby Day Card

Churchill Race 6
$10 to win/$30 place #2 Coffee Clique
Total Risked: $40

Churchill Race 10
$10 to win #2 Bright Thought
$20 exacta: 1/2
Total Risked: $30

Santa Anita Race 6
$50 win #3 Berts Melody
$10 exacta box: 3 with 4,10
Total Risked: $90

Santa Anita Race 11
$20 to win #11 Susan B Good
$5 exacta box: 11 with 1,6,7
Total Risked: $50

Churchill Downs $1 Pick 4
Race 8: 3,8,10,11
Race 9: 2,4,8,9,10,11
Race 10: 1,2
Race 11: 5,6,14,16
Total Risked: $192

Churchill Downs $1 Pick 4
Race 8: 3,8,10,11
Race 9: 2,4,8,9,10,11
Race 10: 1
Race 11: 6,14
Total Risked: $48

Churchill Downs Race 11
$6 exacta: 6,14/1,5,6,14,16,19
Total Risked: $60

Pending:Oaks/Derby Double
$75: #13 Untapable with #6 Samraat, #14 Medal Count
$10: #3 Sugar Shock, #4 Rosalind, #7 Fashion Plate with #6 Samraat, #14 Medal Count
Total Risked: $210


Compiled Amount: $720

My final analysis of the Derby. Samraat, Chrome, Medal Count, Intense Holiday are my main contenders. At 2/1 Chrome is definitely an underlay in a 20 horse race. Deserving favorite, but doesn't stand over this field at all. Intense Holiday looks very good, but Velasquez jumping on for the 1st time is a concern. The pace of this race can be used to break my contenders down. There should be a hot pace in this race. Wildcat Red will be out early with Harry's Holiday, Uncle Sigh potentially trying to push and keep up partway. There's a lot of horses in this race that like to use tactical speed and sit right off the leader. Those in include Samraat, Chrome, Vicar's in Trouble, General a Rod, Chitu. This race sets up perfectly for a mid-pack horse. So I'm selecting Medal Count as my 2014 Kentucky Derby winner. Somewhat similar look to Animal Kingdom winning 3 years ago.


Wise Dan looks solid as usual, but there looks to be no pace in this race to run at. #2 Bright Thought has a chance to wire the field at long odds.

[MoneylineExpress]

California Chrome, shiny and bright but love the attempt

Whoever said I'm playing California Chrome @ 2-1?

[nvrlose37]

Going with a technique that will save me no matter the pace of the race. Two 6 horse triboxes:

Slow pace:
Ride On Curlin
Samraat
Vicar's
Wildcat Red
Cali Chrome
Chitu

Fast pace:
Ride On Curlin
Wicked strong
Dance with Fate
Commanding Curve
Cali Chrome
Intense Holiday

Ride On Curlin and Cali chrome in a $15 ex box. I like these two no matter the pace with talent to win or at the very least show up.

[MoneylineExpress]

Going with a technique that will save me no matter the pace of the race. Two 6 horse triboxes:

Slow pace:
Ride On Curlin
Samraat
Vicar's
Wildcat Red
Cali Chrome
Chitu

Fast pace:
Ride On Curlin
Wicked strong
Dance with Fate
Commanding Curve
Cali Chrome
Intense Holiday

Ride On Curlin and Cali chrome in a $15 ex box. I like these two no matter the pace with talent to win or at the very least show up.

Good luck. I love the derby. There's so many different opinions and so many ways to look at the race.

[NJDfan1711]

Going with a technique that will save me no matter the pace of the race. Two 6 horse triboxes:

Slow pace:
Ride On Curlin
Samraat
Vicar's
Wildcat Red
Cali Chrome
Chitu

Fast pace:
Ride On Curlin
Wicked strong
Dance with Fate
Commanding Curve
Cali Chrome
Intense Holiday

Ride On Curlin and Cali chrome in a $15 ex box. I like these two no matter the pace with talent to win or at the very least show up.

Your first six are exactly my six. But... I dropped Vicar and reduced it to 5. As much as I like Rosie and think she may be due for her first derby win, I just don't like the horse as much.

[nvrlose37]

Your first six are exactly my six. But... I dropped Vicar and reduced it to 5. As much as I like Rosie and think she may be due for her first derby win, I just don't like the horse as much.

I like Vicar if he gets the lead in the slow pace only.

[mrginandtonic]

Good luck. I love the derby. There's so many different opinions and so many ways to look at the race.

Yes, there are so many angles that people use. Just love the derby.

[MoneylineExpress]

Out on the pick 4 after the 1st leg. Gotta play the pick 3. These are so fun, but generally bad bets.

Churchill $1 Pick 3
Race 9: 2,4,8,9,10,11
Race 10: 1,2
Race 11: 5,6,14,16

Churchill $1 Pick 3
Race 9: 2,4,8,9,10,11
Race 10: 1
Race 11: 6,14

[magsmeplease]

I know nothing about horse racing, but I'm a degenerate so I'll tail you for the final two races! BOL

Also put $20 on exacta 1st) California Chrome, 2nd) Samraat, 3rd) Intense Holiday.

$20 to win $7086.

[jsdjason]

ML Express: do you have any longshots you like today?

[vegasreaper]

Just love your breakdown of the Derby every year have followed you all three years I just don't like how you vanish for the other two legs of the Triple Crown? Im not into horse racing but I do bet the big races and would love if you broke other two down like you do this one. Is it just because your methods aren't as solid or???? Great Work keep it up..cheers mate

[MoneylineExpress]

The best horse won the race, but I wasn't about to play a horse at 2-1 odds to win the Derby. Samraat ran his eyeballs out, but no one was beating Chrome today. Until next year

[BarkingToad]

Cozmic One will be 2015 Derby winner.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I had the same bullshit last year with posters coming into my thread telling me flaws with my selections. Anyone criticizing someone elses plays for the derby is an arrogant moron.

Have to disagree Money Line on this point. Arrogant criticism is BS yes. But constructive reasoning on why a player does not like someone's selection is positive in the long term. The back and forth discussion on a horse's positive and negatives can only help fine tune one's handicapping.

[mikemca]

God time flies

Seems like yesterday they were born

Cozmic One will be 2015 Derby winner.