Breaking Down the 2014 Kentucky Derby

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 12:00 PM

Next set of criteria is eliminate any horse that didn't race at the age of 2. Late bloomers rarely win the derby because they miss out ont he maturing process. No Derby winner in the last 132 years that was unraced at age two. No thanks.

Eliminate: Hoppertunity (didn't race til the age of 3)

Only 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby in the last 73 years have had a dosage index above 4. Horses whose dosage index exceeds 4.00 are not likely to run 1¼ miles successfully this early in their careers. The DI is used to quantify a horse's ability, or inability, to negotiate the various distances at which horse races are run. It is calculated based on an analysis of the horse's pedigree. It's a stamina check. It's not perfect, but only 5 winners of the Kentucky Derby (in the last 73 years) since 1940 (Strike the Gold [1991], Real Quiet [1998], Charismatic [1999], Giacomo [2005] and Mine That Bird [2009]) have had a Dosage Index above 4.00. Even though the aforementioned 5 horses won the Kentucky Derby within the last 2 decades (20 years to be exact), the percentage of 5 out of 73 (1940-2013) is just 7% overall.

Eliminate: Vicars In Trouble (5.0), Wild Cat Red (5.67)

The next set of criteria specifies that in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse must have been first or second with a furlong to go. This very important because 49 of the last 51 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining in the Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go. Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole.

Eliminate: Wicked Strong, We Miss Artie, Candy Boy, Commanding Curve

Thats it for now, I'll be back tonight to finish this up, and hopefully bring a winner home.

**bet_that_all** · 04-30-14, 12:04 PM

Keep going!!

Cash a lot last ywar with Orb!!

**Heppy10** · 04-30-14, 12:25 PM

My horses are still alive lol

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 06:10 PM

California Chrome (V. Ezpinoza)
Dance with Fate (Nakatani)
Samraat (Ortiz)
Danza (Bravo)
Intense Holiday (Velasquez)
Ride on Curlin (Borel)
Chitu (Garcia)
General a Rod (Rosario)
Medal Count (Albarado)

The field is cut in more than a half. My contenders to win the derby.

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 06:38 PM

If anyone finds a link to past performances for the Derby with Beyer numbers I will be able to finish this. They may not bet out yet, but I'm not sure. I found PP's with Brisnet speedfigures but I don't like using those.

**BGboothA** · 04-30-14, 07:16 PM

Bris is the only ones out right now...Beyer usually takes a little longer.

**jameski999** · 04-30-14, 08:32 PM

DRF have posted the PP anybody got them in a PDF file? TIA

**Draynay** · 04-30-14, 09:06 PM

Exacta box General/Wildcat/Danza CC has not looked good or comfortable on the track at all. Pass.

**DMBcardinal** · 04-30-14, 09:48 PM

Great stuff, keep it coming!

**harthebar** · 04-30-14, 09:49 PM

CHURCHILL DOWNS 5-3-14.pdf

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

[ATTACH]68165[/ATTACH]

Awesome. Thank you very much. Tried donating you some coin but wouldn't let me.

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 10:56 PM

From here points will be added of the list of 9.
- Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longer race as a 2 year old. (Samraat, Intense Holiday, Medal Count
- Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 beyer speed figures in its last race. This is a big knock if the horse did not. A horse needs to be in top form to win the Kentucky Derby. (All qualify except for General a Rod, Samraat)
- Give points to horses which raced against graded stakes competition prior to April as a 3 year old. Reason: battle tested. (All qualify except for Danza)
- Give a point to a horse that has won a graded stakes race. This shows a horse has the class to win. (All qualify except for Ride on Curlin and General A Rod)
- This is an important one. The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole. This shows a horse that does not like to be passed coming down the stretch. Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971. (All qualify except for Dance with Fate, Ride on Curlin, Chitu)

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 11:02 PM

Almost all of the past derby winners of the past have had 4 or 5 points.

Intense Holiday (5)
Samraat (4)
Medal Count (5)
California Chrome (4)
Dance with Fate (3)
Danza (3)
Chitu (3)
Ride on Curlin (2)
General A Rod (2)

The 4 in bold are my primary contenders to wear the roses

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 11:15 PM

Finally it's time to take account beyer speed figures. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race. Here are the horses 2nd best beyer number.

Intense Holiday (98)
Samraat (103)
Calfornia Chrome (106)
Medal Count (103)

Beyer numbers have a lot of variance. I like to consider any horse within 5 beyer points of the top horse. That throws out Intense Holiday. Also note jockey John Velasquez is jumping in the irons for the 1st time on Intense Holiday. Your really need to know your horse in a race like this in a 20 horse field and all the possible traffic problems. This isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time.

We are down to 3.

Samraat
Calfornia Chrome
Medal Count

**mrginandtonic** · 04-30-14, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by MoneylineExpress

Finally it's time to take account beyer speed figures. We’re not looking for a horse that has only run 1 competitive race. We want a horse with a good competitive foundation that’s run 2 competitive races. The KentuckyDerby is a very demanding race and rarely can a horse win it without at least 2 strong efforts prior to the race. Here are the horses 2nd best beyer number.

Intense Holiday (98)
Samraat (103)
Calfornia Chrome (106)
Medal Count (103)

Beyer numbers have a lot of variance. I like to consider any horse within 5 beyer points of the top horse. That throws out Intense Holiday. Also note jockey John Velasquez is jumping in the irons for the 1st time on Intense Holiday. Your really need to know your horse in a race like this in a 20 horse field and all the possible traffic problems. This isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time.

We are down to 3.

Samraat
Calfornia Chrome
Medal Count

Nice info. MLExress. Thanks for the break down. How do your system do in regards to horse coming 2nd or 3rd?? Your top 9 picks, do you usually come in the mix of tris and supers??

**MoneylineExpress** · 04-30-14, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

Nice info. MLExress. Thanks for the break down. How do your system do in regards to horse coming 2nd or 3rd?? Your top 9 picks, do you usually come in the mix of tris and supers??

Not very good for getting the exacta. 2013 Golden Soul finished second at around 50-1. 2012 Bodemeister and 2011 Nehro didn't make my list of contenders.

I'm normally play Win bets, Doubles , Pick 3's

**mrginandtonic** · 05-01-14, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by MoneylineExpress

Not very good for getting the exacta. 2013 Golden Soul finished second at around 50-1. 2012 Bodemeister and 2011 Nehro didn't make my list of contenders.

I'm normally play Win bets, Doubles , Pick 3's

Thank for your input. GL.

**Brooklyn Dick** · 05-01-14, 08:06 AM

California Chrome is no bargain as a favorite. He is not bred for distance and has done a lot of racing, which does not bode well in the past for the Derby.

**nvrlose37** · 05-01-14, 08:27 AM

Hoppertunity was scratched per DRF

**MoneylineExpress** · 05-01-14, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick

California Chrome is no bargain as a favorite. He is not bred for distance and has done a lot of racing, which does not bode well in the past for the Derby.

Yeah, I don't know if I would play him at that price. Playing 5/2 on any horse in the Kentucky Derby can't be a winning strategy. He's probably going to get bet down to because just about every analyst is making Chrome their top choice.

**Draynay** · 05-01-14, 10:08 AM

California Rust looks slow on the track and will not hit the board with Danza and Samraat coming out of the gate next to him. Samraat hitting the board ? He wants no part of 1 1/4.

**MoneylineExpress** · 05-01-14, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Draynay

California Rust looks slow on the track and will not hit the board with Danza and Samraat coming out of the gate next to him. Samraat hitting the board ? He wants no part of 1 1/4.

I had the same bullshit last year with posters coming into my thread telling me flaws with my selections. Anyone criticizing someone elses plays for the derby is an arrogant moron.

**Heppy10** · 05-01-14, 10:50 AM

Nice medal count was my first pick and I got him at 42-1 on futures hope were both right

**MoneylineExpress** · 05-01-14, 11:01 AM

Untapable looks like a free square in the Oaks.

**mikemca** · 05-01-14, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by MoneylineExpress

Untapable looks like a free square in the Oaks.

Agree but so did Dreaming Of Julia last year and post 13 is 0 for 13 and only 1 for 13 ITM in Oaks.

Still reports are she looks like the best horse at CD with Derby horses included

**Kav** · 05-01-14, 02:51 PM

been waiting for this thread, good stuff MLexpress!

**w@lt** · 05-01-14, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by mikemca

Agree but so did Dreaming Of Julia last year and post 13 is 0 for 13 and only 1 for 13 ITM in Oaks.

Still reports are she looks like the best horse at CD with Derby horses included

Think the field is worth a bet at -120?

**mikemca** · 05-01-14, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by w@lt

Think the field is worth a bet at -120?

Nah...If I were going to try and beat her I would use everyone but her(maybe even knock out a couple no hopers too) in the Oaks/Derby Double with 3 or 4 horses I like in the Derby.With all the money singled to her there should be some overlays.

She is a legit beast though off her last 2 races so not sure I would try.

**Draynay** · 05-01-14, 05:12 PM

After the draw it is clear as day the horse to beat is Danza. I still think General A Rod fights to the wire but the draw has doomed the field Danza is your Derby winner.

**Draynay** · 05-01-14, 05:15 PM

Pletcher wins the Oak with My Miss and Pletcher wins the Derby with Danza. Wow.

**nvrlose37** · 05-01-14, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Draynay

After the draw it is clear as day the horse to beat is Danza. I still think General A Rod fights to the wire but the draw has doomed the field Danza is your Derby winner.

The horse to beat after he had one race over a mile with a dream trip on the rail? C'mon that couldn't scream fluke more. The public is going to follow the 8-1 ML but he is going to bounce hard.

**MoneylineExpress** · 05-01-14, 08:08 PM

Finished capping the Oaks. The pace of the race looks pretty fair in my opinion. Doesn't favor any type. As I said earlier, Untapable looks like a clear standout and deserving of the 4/5 morning line. Others that could threaten and usable in exotics are Sugar Shock, Rosalind, Fashion Plate.

**Draynay** · 05-01-14, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by nvrlose37

The horse to beat after he had one race over a mile with a dream trip on the rail? C'mon that couldn't scream fluke more. The public is going to follow the 8-1 ML but he is going to bounce hard.

A Fluke by 5 lengths going away ? Watch the Arkansas again and notice his best running starts 100 yards from the wire. Watch his race in Graded Stakes at Saratoga.... he loves to close. California Rust has looked sluggish at Churchill... no horse has looked better than DANZA.

My Miss Sophia for the win ... they will never catch her.

**BarkingToad** · 05-01-14, 09:42 PM

So Danza picking up 8 pounds and his biggest field he faced was 7 horses, vs 19 others Saturday will be no problem?