Originally Posted by
dumbmoney
Hey Dex,
I check in on your posts from time to time to see how you're doing. I like your dedication to posting your plays, and your passion for playing the spa. I do have a question for you on your betting strategy. I usually play more exotic bets, but if you are going to play wps, have you ever considered just playing wp, or just win, or at least limiting your show bets to the really long shots. I've been keeping track of my betting strategies and payoffs and my ROI with show bets was horrible. I've just about eliminated them unless playing a real longshot, and I've seen an overall improvement. Much of the reason I think is because the breakage is more likely to be a large portion of the payout. For example, lets say you put a show bet down on a mid-price horse and after the takeout the show bet should pay real odds of 2.75 when they round it down to 2.60 they are taking off .15 of your .75 winnings. Thats an extra 20% on top of the takeout and it becomes very significant over the long run on such small payouts. Its hard to overcome that. I'm sure you are aware of all this, but it may make a difference in your results. Id be curious if you took the time (many online books have tools that let you do it) and went back and ran your numbers for the saratoga/del mar meet but instead of risking 10 across, risk 15 wp or just 30 win. Youd be risking the same amount, may have more days where you got nothing back, but I'd be surprised if over the long run you don't come out ahead. Just some food for thought. Good luck.