[Dark Horse]

To complete this series of pre-Breeders Cup races, here's the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, run on the same day as the Goodwood. Track was wet, so a pass for me. Looking forward to the Breeders Cup.

[zebra58]

nice run w/the #7, are you assigning your own speed figs or what figs are you refering to?

[Dark Horse]

Speed figures give a range of what a horse is capable of. That's not very useful, unless we have a way to determine where in that range the horse is likely to run for each race. I developed, and am still developing, a method to evaluate each horse and jockey before going to the PP's. That method itself is too complex to explain here, but it gives me an idea of how a horse will perform. Then I look at the speed figures from the PP's, and pick one for each horse based on that evaluation. I had to add that after I realized I was oversimplifying things by thinking that a longshot who looked great for the race would win. A better horse would only need an average race to run just as fast.

In post 4 of this thread you can see Coil, who finished third last Saturday, have that burst of speed that won him the Haskell. Note that he wasn't nearly as far behind as Awesome Gem in the Goodwood. That's what I look for. "A lot of horse". Not every race has it, but when it's there I believe I have something to identify it. Awesome Gem had it in the Goodwood. Animal Kingdom had it in the Kentucky Derby. Doesn't mean I don't focus on other type of winners, but when a speed horse leads from wire to wire it doesn't show up as dramatically as when a horse bursts by the leaders as if they're barely moving. (For the Kentucky Derby I won't use a transformation to speed numbers, because that race is so wide open and lucrative that I want to keep the door open to any longshot that has a shot; adding speed numbers would undervalue those).

The quality of the trip is my next assignment. lol This would have to include the track condition as well as the strategy for each horse, and how it can get messed up. I'm not sure if the new track at Santa Anita had some jockeys unprepared on just the second day of racing, but it may help explain why Flores found himself behind so far. Again comparing to the Haskell, Baffert thought during that race that Coil was too far back. He thought he'd lost the race. Awesome Gem was much further back in the Goodwood. If you're going to be that far back, at what point does it no longer matter how fast you can close? I have to think that these jockeys are so good that they wouldn't make such a basic mistake, and that something took Flores by surprise. He knows the horse very well (24th time riding him), so it couldn't have been that.

[zebra58]

was just curious as to what type figures you use equ, byr, though i understand that's probably something you rather not make known here, keep working & good luck

[Dark Horse]

For this purpose that doesn't really matter. I use Beyer, because I have conversion tables to value lines that are set up for Beyer.

[Dark Horse]

I had about a month without a thought of horse racing before the last race, and that's too long. Immediately made a mistake by missing something I shouldn't have. So just to stay on track until the Breeders Cup I'm going to look at one race each weekend. Not necessarily to bet it, but to stay in touch mentally.

One of the favorites for the Breeders Cup Sprint is The Factor. He runs this Saturday at Santa Anita in the Ancient Title, and is scaring away other horses from the race. My only question at this point is if he will run as strong as expected. If so, the race won't have much value. But if not...

This is another Baffert horse, and he's won four out of six races. Not unbeatable. Much of the high expectation is based on his last race, an impressive win in the Pat O'Brien in August at Del Mar. So I looked at that race to see if my method would have identified him as running a very strong race. It would have. That's good, because it means I have a read on him (for future reference) and useful info because it means he could be somewhat overrated. Next question is about Saturday. If he looks good for that race again, I have nothing and will toss the race out.

[Dark Horse]

The Factor doesn't look as good as in his last race, but none of the other horses looks very good either. Nothing there for me.

[Dark Horse]

List with early contenders for every Breeders Cup race: http://www.drf.com/events/breeders-c...hurchill-downs

Early pick for Breeders Cup Classic: Tizway
Early fade: Stay Thirsty

[Dark Horse]

Awesome Gem out of Breeders Cup, likely to run next season as 9 year old. What a life he's got. Looks happy. http://www.drf.com/news/awesome-gem-miss-breeders-cup

Breeders Cup just a couple of weeks away. *Superbowl shiver*

[Dark Horse]

Early read on the Classic. This will change later on, as other horses and more details are added. Colors are relative to the horse's own potential. So dark green for favorites can turn out pretty nice.

Tizway
Havre De Grace
Stay Thirsty
Flat Out
Uncle Mo
Drosselmeyer
Game On Dude

[str]

I just saw where Tizway is now a scratch from the Classic and has been retired.
Slightly pulled suspensory.Long term is nothing but can not run with it now.
Also, thanks for the kind words in my thread. Still working on that video. I will have it soon I hope.

[Thunder Gulch]

When you look at how close Game On Dude stayed to those sizzling fractions, the Goodwood was quite the effort.

[Thunder Gulch]

Flat Out worked like a monster the other day. Chalk, but tough.

[str]

When you look at how close Game On Dude stayed to those sizzling fractions, the Goodwood was quite the effort.

I agree completely. That effort in the Classic might be enough to win it.

[Dark Horse]

I just saw where Tizway is now a scratch from the Classic and has been retired.
Slightly pulled suspensory.Long term is nothing but can not run with it now.
Also, thanks for the kind words in my thread. Still working on that video. I will have it soon I hope.

I just saw it too. The list keeps growing. Tizway joining Acclamation, Awesome Gem, Twirling Candy. Too bad. I may be down to just one or two Breeders Cup races, which is fine.

Hope all is well, str. The insights you shared have made a world of difference. The year ahead will be one of testing and continuing to improve the method (the result of a fortunate match to my own field of expertise). Many more lessons to learn, no doubt. Looking forward to the video. Cheers!

[Dark Horse]

Flat Out worked like a monster the other day. Chalk, but tough.

Flat Out upgraded to bold green. 'A lot of horse' rating.

[Dark Horse]

One race to study is the Woodward, where Havre de Grace and Flat Out ran one and two. Ice Box runs in this race as well, and will be in the Classic field if Gio Ponti goes to the turf instead.

[Dark Horse]

Havre de Grace:

[Thunder Gulch]

Seeing Flat Out at 10-1 in futures...he's most likely IMO, so a huge overlay.

[Dark Horse]

I'm going at a snail's pace here. According to my reads Flat Out did not connect in the Whitney and finished 2nd (see post #8), did not connect in the Woodward and finished 2nd again, and did not connect in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, on a muddy track earlier this month, and won the race. If this is correct, he's certainly undervalued. In the Breeders Cup Classic my method suggests that he will connect. I would expect him to run big. Flat Out is a closer. Let's hope that Solis has a good read on the race (not so sure about that). Still early, but penciling in the highest speed number from his PP's.

Next up: Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo.

[Dark Horse]

Before speed figures and racing styles (to be included later):

Flat Out
Havre De Grace
So You Think - best jockey rating.
Ruler On Ice
Headache
Prayer for Relief
Ice Box
Uncle Mo
Stay Thirsty - undecided about this one. Leaning towards red flagging (out), but not totally sure.
Drosselmeyer
Game On Dude
Rattlesnake Bridge
To Honor And Serve

This is far too much green at a first glance, and not the early definition I would prefer, but it's the Classic, so I'll bite the bullet. lol Anyway, just a starting point to get an idea of how the horse may run relative to his own capacity. If I had to bet now I would say Flat Out and Havre de Grace.

[Dark Horse]

was just curious as to what type figures you use equ, byr, though i understand that's probably something you rather not make known here, keep working & good luck

Beyers. Didn't quite get the question until I thought I'd go fancy on pace by checking out Trackmaster Pro. My impression was that they used Beyer speed figures. Not so. Suddenly staring at Equibase numbers, the origins of which are shrouded in mystery. Maybe I'm expecting too much to think that numbers should be explained, so people can make an informed choice. I started out with Carroll speed numbers -he wrote an interesting book-, and his line of thought is still my philosophical preference. But for my practical purpose of subtracting numbers from the highest speed figure Beyers are certainly more reliable than Equibase. Makes sense. The original guy. If others want to improve on his work, great. But if they can't clearly explain and demonstrate their improvement, I would have to think that they would if they could. For every originator there are many imitators.

[Dark Horse]

Classic is starting to take shape in my mind. The unknown is So You Think, from New Zealand and raced in Europe. Record keeping overseas is, let's say, not too impressive. So a few videos to get an idea of So You Think. He looks like a stalker to me, who may not have an extra gear to respond to challenges once he's in the lead. I wish I knew more of his raw speed.

[Dark Horse]

Speed going to/near the front: Game on Dude, Uncle Mo, To Honor And Serve.
Semi-speed/stalk: Stay Thirsty, Havre de Grace, So You Think, Prayer for Relief, Drosselmeyer
Stalk/close: Ruler On Ice, Rattlesnake Bridge, Flat Out
Close: Ice Box, Headache

So You Think is the mystery horse, because I have no reliable times and speed figures to measure him against the field. If it were mostly down to the jockey reading the race, and in some big field races it can be (especially Kentucky Derby), So You Think could have a nice clean trip.

Flat Out is the horse that connects the most here. His highest Beyer is 113 and I'll give him that here. He'll have to pass a very strong field in the stretch, so hopefully for Flat Out the leaders wore each other out enough.

Havre de Grace also looks very good. Highest Beyer is 108. Best combination of horse/race + jockey/race. That may very well be what it takes to win here.

Uncle Mo doesn't really connect to the race. But he may still be fast enough. Even a lowered speed figure could place him around 114. I could see Flat Out catching him in the stretch, but it will be one exciting finish.

This is probably the most difficult race I've tried to read so far. Such a big field with so much quality. Likely to turn into a big ... learning experience.

From Post Positions, with color-coded form of day and estimated race speed:
Prayer for Relief 98
Flat Out 113
Drosselmeyer 104
Ruler On Ice 101
So You Think ?
Ice Box 100
Rattlesnake Bridge 95
Game On Dude 102
Stay Thirsty 101
Havre De Grace 108
Headache 100
Uncle Mo 114
To Honor And Serve 100

I'm further along with the color coding than with the translation to speed figures, so interpret at your own risk. lol Nothing final yet, but looks like I'll be betting Flat Out and Havre de Grace, and will have to include Uncle Mo and the unknown So You Think. Probably exacta box and Flat Out to win. I'm giving Uncle Mo's speed figures a lot of credit here, perhaps too much.

Final step is to take the contenders and go back over their past races to see under what conditions they ran their best speed numbers.

[Dark Horse]

Two main questions left:
- what's the deal with Uncle Mo's last speed number, 10 higher than his previous best?
- what's So You Think's speed potential, and, in his case, mentality? If you check So You Think's two earlier videos you see him looking back both times when he's in the lead. He'll have blinkers on in the Classic, but I'd be a little concerned about a horse that is ... concerned.

[scratbandit]

Uncle Mo is a fade. His preps are nothing to get this horse ready to go. His owner just wants the shot. 1 mile is all this horse has ran and has not done your typical 2 race prep of at least 1 1/8. He is nowhere in condition for this race. Great horse but not in form. Even the best can be beat when they are not on point.
Obrien has brought a ton of grass horses over for the classic and is 0-15.

Especially a 2 tier turf horse not even that close to the best turf runners in the world. So you think has not even ran on dirt. Wrong race. O brien goes 0-16 after this race. Dirt to turf is one thing but to go from turf to dirt that takes a rare trainer.

Flat out and Havre de grace are perfect. Look at there last two prep races and you are spot on my friend. Great call on those two. Conditioning is always lost on these big races. Flat out is your winner and havre de grace a close second.

[scratbandit]

Uncle Mo 118 beyer yet impressive but a muddy track in the G2 kelso doesn't add up. 1 mile this horse is not even in form for this race. Connections are miss guided for this horse. Bring him back for his 4 year season and let him have the legacy we all know he can be.

I really enjoyed your insights on the coverage of the races.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for the help.

[Dark Horse]

First glance at the Dirt Mile. Just looked at The Factor and Shackleford so far. Shackleford looking sweet. Would take a super effort to beat him, I think.

[mikemca]

Andy Beyer in the Washington Post

"
However, boldness is not always a virtue. Thrusting a horse into a race where he doesn’t belong, or for which he is not adequate prepared, can be a devastating mistake. Even though Uncle Mo is almost certainly the most gifted racehorse in the U.S., it is reasonable to question whether he ought to be running in the Classic.
Nobody could doubt Uncle Mo’s innate talent after he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year, earning the 2-year-old championship and establishing himself as one of the most brilliant Thoroughbred prospects in years. He had the potential to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. But almost nothing has gone right for him as a 3-year-old. After he suffered a shocking defeat in April, he lost weight, looked listless, and was knocked out of the Triple Crown series. Weeks passed until veterinarians discovered that he was suffering from a rare liver ailment called cholangiohepatitis.
Uncle Mo didn’t return to competition until Aug. 27 at Saratoga, losing his comeback race by a nose in a good effort. Then he faced three rivals in the one-mile Kelso Stakes at Belmont Park, where he got an uncontested early lead and scored a decisive victory, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 118, the fastest performance at a mile or more by any horse this year. Uncle Mo was back. But back to do what?
The prudent move would be to run him in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and then aim him for a 4-year-old campaign to prove that he is the best horse in the world. (Though owner Mike Repole has already made a deal to stand Uncle Mo at stud, and breeders are in always in a hurry to retire prospective stallions, Repole says he still has control of the horse’s plans next year.) But the owner is an ambitious man who thinks big; he co-founded the company that made VitaminWater and sold it for $4.1 billion. When he got into racing, he wanted to make a big splash by winning the country’s highest-profile races, not by taking a consolation prize like the Dirt Mile. So Repole wants to run Uncle Mo in the $5 million Classic.
I cannot recall a good horse going into a major race on dirt so underprepared as Uncle Mo will be Saturday. The distance of 1 1/4 miles often poses a tough challenge for horses who excel at shorter distances. There are 137 years of Kentucky Derby history to prove that point. Trainers plan the schedules of Derby candidates months in advance to make sure they will be fit enough to go the distance.
But trainer Todd Pletcher didn’t have time to give Uncle Mo anything resembling a conventional sequence of prep races. He acknowledged his plan was dictated by “the cards that we were dealt in the spring.” As a result, the colt will go into the most demanding test of his life without any stamina-building prep races. His minimal preparation − two starts since early April, at distances of seven furlongs and one mile − is a sharp contrast with his rivals’ regimens. Since the spring, Havre de Grace has made six starts this year at distances from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles, winning five of them. The international star So You Think has raced seven times at 1 1/4 miles or longer in the last six months."

[zebra58]

i'll take my chances with uncle mo, appears well now & could be as good as he's ever been

[zebra58]

Two main questions left:
- what's the deal with Uncle Mo's last speed number, 10 higher than his previous best?
- what's So You Think's speed potential, and, in his case, mentality? If you check So You Think's two earlier videos you see him looking back both times when he's in the lead. He'll have blinkers on in the Classic, but I'd be a little concerned about a horse that is ... concerned.

so you think should have his first work or gallop over the cd dirt today see how he handles it, adding lasix for the cup might run big

[zebra58]

i guess so you think has yet to ship to cd

[nomar122977]

im all over headache no way am i on uncle mo at all, his works are terrible his last work yesterday he went to the gate turned around and went back in the barn. im not buying the hype of this horse at all.
1.headache
2.stay thirsty
3.tohonorandserve

thats how im playing it as of now. i can see a 50-60 dollar winner in this race and they have the ml odds way off on some of these horses.

[Dark Horse]

FWIW, Headache should have a borderline bold green rating in post #59. Could easily see him run big. But probably a little outclassed in this field.