1. 06-01-11 09:01 PM #1
    Dexter
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    Belmont Spring Meet

    so Belmont has been brutal to me so far this spring, as i dropped almost 3 dimes. I have decided to take a break from betting horses until my favorite meet of the year Saratoga - however, i want to test out a new strategy and keep on top of the NY circuit by posting my plays here. This is not real money being bet, simply a thread to track my plays.
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-01-11 at 10:45 PM.
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  2. 06-01-11 09:32 PM #2
    Dexter
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    Thursday 6/2:

    R1: #1/1a entry (7/2)
    R2: #5 Jupiter Trio (3/5)
    R3: #3 Island School (8/5)
    R4: #5 Shes Got Energy (5/2)
    R5: #1a Those Lyon Eyes (6/5)
    R6: #2 Unaccountable (3/1)
    R7: #4 Who's on the Case (3/1)
    R8: #1 Alfarabi (5/2)**
    R9: #2 Victoryat Last (5/2)

    All races 10 across the board - race 8, 20 across
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-01-11 at 10:44 PM.
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  3. 06-02-11 12:10 AM #3
    Seattle Slew
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    No luck for me either. Waiting to til Belmont day to restart.
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  4. 06-02-11 12:35 AM #4
    BGboothA
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    Good luck guys. I have been staying away from belmont as well. Actuallly playing some Charlestown and mountaineer lately with some luck. Ohh and some church hill on the weekends.
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  5. 06-02-11 01:05 AM #5
    Arsenal
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    I am looking forward to both Saratoga and DelMar. Good luck with your strategy.
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  6. 06-02-11 06:10 AM #6
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    Hey Dexter whats up...I followed your other thread a little and the biggest reason I think you had such a hard time is that you took too many short priced horses.When you take under 2-1 on a horse you have to have a win rate of close to 50% just to make a 20% profit.IMO it isn't possible to win at 50% long term even with horses that look like they lay over the field.

    My suggestion would be to demand at the very least 3-1 which cuts the needed win rate down to 30% to get a 20% profit.Bump that up to 7-2 and win at 30% to get a 40% profit.I'm sure you can see the trend here that the higher you go the less you need to win.On my w/p bets I want 5-1 and if they drop below 3-1 I don't bet.

    Just some food for thought GL
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  7. 06-02-11 08:38 AM #7
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Hey Dexter whats up...I followed your other thread a little and the biggest reason I think you had such a hard time is that you took too many short priced horses.When you take under 2-1 on a horse you have to have a win rate of close to 50% just to make a 20% profit.IMO it isn't possible to win at 50% long term even with horses that look like they lay over the field.

    My suggestion would be to demand at the very least 3-1 which cuts the needed win rate down to 30% to get a 20% profit.Bump that up to 7-2 and win at 30% to get a 40% profit.I'm sure you can see the trend here that the higher you go the less you need to win.On my w/p bets I want 5-1 and if they drop below 3-1 I don't bet.

    Just some food for thought GL
    actually, over the last few weeks at belmont (when i got crushed) i was consistently looking to beat the favorite and many times going with the 2nd/3rd favorite. on turf races especially, i would rarely pick the favorite. today, i went kind of chalky but only because my other strategy wasnt getting it done.

    i appreciate the feedback, and will definitely use this info when i start up for real at the spa.
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  8. 06-02-11 12:11 PM #8
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Thursday 6/2:

    R1: #1/1a entry (7/2) - (W+37)
    R2: #5 Jupiter Trio (3/5) (P-9)
    R3: #3 Island School (8/5) (L-30)
    R4: #5 Shes Got Energy (5/2) (L-30)
    R5: #1a Those Lyon Eyes (6/5) (W+14)
    R6: #2 Unaccountable (3/1) (W+34)
    R7: #4 Who's on the Case (3/1) (W+87)
    R8: #1 Alfarabi (5/2)**(L-60)
    R9: #2 Victoryat Last (5/2) (S-14)

    All races 10 across the board - race 8, 20 across
    6/2: +29
    Thread: +29
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-02-11 at 08:29 PM.
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  9. 06-02-11 03:49 PM #9
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    of course i have a winning day today....
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  10. 06-02-11 10:54 PM #10
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    Friday 6/3:

    R1: #7 Spring Elusion (4/1)
    R2: #5 Algorithms (2/1)
    R3: #4 Proud Dame (6/5)
    R4: #3 Calmafterthestorm (6/5)
    R5: #3 Fisherman's Wharf (5/1)
    R6: #3 Warm Hugs (8/5)
    R7: #3 Fiscal Stimulus (8/5)
    R8: #4 Ava K.** (8/5)
    R9: #3 Check the Cites (3/1)

    10 across for all except race 8 (20 across)
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  11. 06-03-11 06:40 AM #11
    wtt0315
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    belmont is tough because of small fields. when you win you win small and then some longshot screws your pick 4 like yesterday
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  12. 06-03-11 12:21 PM #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Friday 6/3:

    R1: #7 Spring Elusion (4/1) (P-3)
    R2: #5 Algorithms (2/1) (W+9)
    R3: #4 Proud Dame (6/5) (P-8)
    R4: #3 Calmafterthestorm (6/5) (P-8)
    R5: #3 Fisherman's Wharf (5/1) (W+80)
    R6: #3 Warm Hugs (8/5) (W+10)
    R7: #3 Fiscal Stimulus (8/5) (L-30)
     R8: #4 Ava K.** (8/5) (W+17)
     R9: #3 Check the Cites (3/1) (W+61)

    10 across for all except race 8 (20 across)
    6/3: +128
    Thread: +157
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-03-11 at 04:33 PM.
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  13. 06-03-11 04:30 PM #13
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    lol....another winning day with no $$ on the line...
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  14. 06-03-11 05:30 PM #14
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    Saturday 6/4:

    R1: #2 Mr. Vegas (3/1)**
    R2: #5 Now Now Girl (5/2)
    R3: #4 Self Control (7/2)
    R4: #3 Judy's Warrior (2/1)
    R5: #4 Strikealinethruit (5/1)
    R6: #6 Art Currency (7/2)
    R7: #3 Southbeachsandy (3/1)
    R8: #9 Houliana (6/1)
    R9: #7 Streaker (4/1)
    R10: #1 Song for Pupcake (5/1)

    10 across the board - r1 20 across*
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-04-11 at 10:40 AM.
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  15. 06-04-11 04:41 PM #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Saturday 6/4:

    R1: #2 Mr. Vegas (3/1)** (W+43)
    R2: #5 Now Now Girl (5/2) (L-30)
    R3: #4 Self Control (7/2) (L-30)
    R4: #3 Judy's Warrior (2/1) (W+11)
    R5: #4 Strikealinethruit (5/1) (P+35)
    R6: #6 Art Currency (7/2) (L-30)
    R7: #3 Southbeachsandy (3/1) (P-2)
    R8: #9 Houliana (6/1) (L-30)
    R9: #7 Streaker (4/1) (L-30)
    R10: #1 Song for Pupcake (5/1) (-30)

    10 across the board - r1 20 across*
    6/4: -93
    Thread: +64
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-04-11 at 05:32 PM.
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  16. 06-05-11 06:21 AM #16
    wtt0315
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    Another losing day for me there
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  17. 06-05-11 10:44 AM #17
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by wtt0315 View Post
    Another losing day for me there
    yeah, these fields at belmont are so small. i like taking shots on bigger fields.
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  18. 06-05-11 10:54 AM #18
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    Sunday 6/5:

    R1: #2 Sky Music (7/2)
    R2: #3 Wicked Climb (8/5)
    R3: #1 Friend or Foe (2/1)*
    R4: #5 Ruthenia (3/1)**
    R5: #3 Little Larky (4/1)
    R6: #6 Darrin's Dilemma (5/2)
    R7: #1 Copper Cascade (8/1)
    R8: #6 Tidal Slam (7/2)
    R9: #3 Letshootpool (3/1)
    R10: #2 Gamblin Fever (9/2)

    All races 10 across - R3 15/15 (no show), R4 20 across*
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  19. 06-05-11 01:22 PM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Sunday 6/5:

    R1: #2 Sky Music (7/2) (L-30)
    R2: #3 Wicked Climb (8/5) (W+12)
    R3: #1 Friend or Foe (2/1)* (W+21)
    R4: #5 Ruthenia (3/1)** (S-37)
    R5: #3 Little Larky (4/1) (W+59)
    R6: #6 Darrin's Dilemma (5/2) (W+34)
    R7: #1 Copper Cascade (8/1) (S-16)
    R8: #6 Tidal Slam (7/2) (L-30)
    R9: #4 Letshootpool (3/1) (L-30)
    R10: #2 Gamblin Fever (9/2) (L-30)

    All races 10 across - R3 15/15 (no show), R4 20 across*

    6/5: -47
    Thread: +17
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-05-11 at 06:03 PM.
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  20. 06-06-11 07:32 PM #20
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    Wednesday 6/8:
    R1: #2 War Clan (3/1)
    R2: #2 Wheeler Dealer (8/1)
    R3: #4 Sister Resistor (7/2)
    R4: #1/1a Rice entry (5/2)
    R5: #4 Five Grand Girl (2/1)**
    R6: #6 Stellaluce (9/2)
    R7: #4 Comic Marvel
    R8: #1/1a McLaughlin entry (3/1)
    R9: #8 Town Flirt (7/2)

    All races 10 across - R5 20 across**
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-06-11 at 08:06 PM.
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  21. 06-08-11 12:13 PM #21
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    Scratch Replacement:

    R5: #1 (10 across)
    R6: #1
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  22. 06-08-11 07:55 PM #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Wednesday 6/8:
    R1: #2 War Clan (3/1) (L-30)
    R2: #2 Wheeler Dealer (8/1) (L-30)
    R3: #4 Sister Resistor (7/2) (S-11)
    R4: #1/1a Rice entry (5/2) (L-30)
    R5: #1 Wild News (7/2) (W+43)
    R6: #1 Sneaky Girl (3/1) (P+2)
    R7: #4 Comic Marvel (L-30)
    R8: #1/1a McLaughlin entry (3/1) (W+35)
    R9: #8 Town Flirt (7/2) (L-30)

    All races 10 across - R5 20 across**
    6/8: -81
    Thread: -64
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  23. 06-09-11 07:11 AM #23
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    Thursday 6/9:

    R1: #4 City Sneakers (6/1)
    R2: #4 Double the Energy (7/2)
    R3: #4 Moshe Diane (5/2)
    R4: #1/1a entry (7/2)
    R5: #3 Threeanddonedan (5/2)
    R6: #2 Afleet's Acclaim (4/1)
    R7: #2 Logical Order (10/1)
    R8: #2 Alyarf (4/1)
    R9: #6 Vintage Heirloom (4/1)

    10 across*

    CANCELLED DUE TO HEAT WAVE**
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-09-11 at 08:10 PM.
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  24. 06-09-11 08:21 PM #24
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    Friday 6/10:

    R1: #7 Mrs Rabbits (7/2)
    R2: #6 Bid a Moon (5/2)
    R3: #5 Artest (7/2)
    R4: #2 Gimme Credit (7/2)
    R5: #6 East Indies (4/1)
    R6: #8 Sundae's a Meese (4/1)
    R7: #8 Make My Move (10/1)
    R8: #3 Long Gone (10/1)
    R9: #2 Right One (3/1)
    R10: #1 Eldaafer (2/1)

    10 across*

    not test plays today....diving back in today and tomorrow.
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-10-11 at 10:19 AM.
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  25. 06-10-11 02:03 PM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Friday 6/10:

    R1: #7 Mrs Rabbits (7/2) (L-30)
    R2: #6 Bid a Moon (5/2) (W+21)
    R3: #5 Artest (7/2) (W+62)
    R4: #2 Gimme Credit (7/2) (W+44)
    R5: #6 East Indies (4/1) (P+7)
    R6: #8 Sundae's a Meese (4/1) (S-0)
    R7: #8 Make My Move (10/1) (L-30)
     R8: #3 Long Gone (10/1) (L-30)
     R9: #2 Right One (3/1) (S-19)
     R10: #1 Eldaafer (2/1) (L-30)
    10 across*

    not test plays today....diving back in today and tomorrow.
    6/10: -5
    Thread: -69
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-10-11 at 05:22 PM.
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  26. 06-10-11 08:11 PM #26
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    Saturday 6/11:

    R1: #5 Seal Cove (6/1)
    R2: #5 Bold Choice (4/1)
    R3: #13 In Just We Trust (5/2)
    R4: #11 Johannesburg Smile (6/1)
    R5: #9 Carbon County (8/1)
    R6: #1 Her Smile (8/1)
    R7: #4 Rule by Night (6/1)
    R8: #2 Justin Phillip (6/1)
    R9: #1 Gypsy's Warning (5/1)
    R10: #6 Viscount Nelson (4/1)
    R11: #1 Master of Hounds (10/1)
    R12: #5 Dr. W (6/1)
    R13: #9 Russian Ally (8/1)

    20 across the board for all races**
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  27. 06-11-11 10:52 AM #27
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    R7: #5 Calibrachoa (7/2)

    due to scratch**
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  28. 06-11-11 10:54 AM #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Saturday 6/11:

    R1: #5 Seal Cove (6/1) (W+77)
    R2: #5 Bold Choice (4/1) (L-60)
    R3: #13 In Just We Trust (5/2) (W+52)
    R4: #11 Johannesburg Smile (6/1) (W+92)
    R5: #9 Carbon County (8/1) (L-60)
    R6: #1 Her Smile (8/1) (S-17)
    R7: #5 Calibrachoa (7/2)     (S-35)
    R8: #2 Justin Phillip (6/1) (W+123)
    R9: #1 Gypsy's Warning (5/1) (L-60)
    R10: #6 Viscount Nelson (4/1) (L-60)
    R11: #1 Master of Hounds (10/1) (L-60)
    R12: #5 Dr. W (6/1) (W+278)
    R13: #9 Russian Ally (8/1) (L-60)

    20 across the board for all races**
    6/11: +210
    Thread: +141
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-11-11 at 07:07 PM.
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  29. 06-12-11 11:45 AM #29
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    Monmouth Sunday 6/12:

    R1: #5 Say a Novena (4/1)
    R2: #7 Sonzul (3/1)
    R3: #6 Our Concerto (4/1)
    R4: #9 Midnight Mass (5/1)
    R5: #1 Our Royal Affair (7/2)
    R6: #7 Dattts Cool (2/1)

    10 across*
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  30. 06-12-11 02:25 PM #30
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    R7: #3 Awakino Cat (4/1)
    R8: #7 All of the Above (5/2)
    R9: #9 Shiloh's Vine (12/1)
    R10: #1 Patriotic Viva (4/1)
    R11: #6 Sal the Barber (6/1)
    R12: #7 Max's Hotdog (6/1)
    R13: #12 Northern Bride (5/1)

    10 across**
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  31. 06-12-11 02:25 PM #31
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    .........
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  32. 06-12-11 02:27 PM #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Monmouth Sunday 6/12:

    R1: #5 Say a Novena (4/1) (W+92)
    R2: #7 Sonzul (3/1) (L-30)
    R3: #6 Our Concerto (4/1) (P+8)
    R4: #9 Midnight Mass (5/1) (L-30)
    R5: #1 Our Royal Affair (7/2) (L-30)
    R6: #7 Dattts Cool (2/1) (P+3)

    10 across*
    Results for Races 1-6: +13
    Last edited by Dexter; 06-12-11 at 06:24 PM.
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  33. 06-12-11 06:30 PM #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    R7: #3 Awakino Cat (4/1) (S-8)
    R8: #7 All of the Above (5/2) (W+10)
    R9: #9 Shiloh's Vine (12/1) (P+12)
    R10: #1 Patriotic Viva (4/1) (S-15)
    R11: #6 Sal the Barber (6/1) (L-30)
    R12: #7 Max's Hotdog (6/1) (L-30)
    R13: #12 Northern Bride (5/1) (L-30)

    10 across**
    6/12: -78
    Thread: +63
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  34. 06-14-11 10:25 PM #34
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    Wed 6/15:

    R1: #1 Wise Stop (4/1)
    R2: #6 Ultimo Principe (4/1)
    R3: #5 Arena Elvira (8/5)
    R4: #5 Imaging (6/1)
    R5: #1 Must Be Love (5/1)
    R6: #10 Our Brave Warrior (5/1)
    R7: #5 Lemon Punch (5/1)
    R8: #10 Tudor King (6/1)
    R9: #4 Copious Notes (6/1)

    10 across*
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  35. 06-15-11 07:09 PM #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dexter View Post
    Wed 6/15:

    R1: #1 Wise Stop (4/1) (W+39)
    R2: #6 Ultimo Principe (4/1) (L-30)
    R3: #5 Arena Elvira (8/5) (S-20)
    R4: #5 Imaging (6/1) (L-30)
    R5: #1 Must Be Love (5/1) (W+59)
    R6: #10 Our Brave Warrior (5/1) (L-30)
    R7: #5 Lemon Punch (5/1) (L-30)
    R8: #10 Tudor King (6/1) (L-30)
    R9: #4 Copious Notes (6/1) (W+69)

    10 across*

    6/15: -3
    Thread: +60
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