[TonyP]

might use shack in 3rd not going in 2nd for me, tossing congie hes to slow, and im not a fan of dialed out like everyone else so he might go in 3rd on my ticket if he goes on at all.

[Thunder Gulch]

Yesterday a 40-1 shot almost wired at 2 turns and an 18-1 did just that....good old Pimlico. Unless they go 45, the closers are in trouble. Discount Dialed In....I like Dance City, Astrology, and Sway Away under hooked with AK and MMM.

[TonyP]

hope everyone bets astology as he has no shot of winning the preakness.

[zebra58]

no animal kingdom kool-aid for me, i'm between 3 as of now #1 astrology #6 sway away #10 dialed in

[louie dog]

1. mucho macho man, 2. shackleford, 3. midnight interlude, 4. animal kingdom

[TonyP]

yoiu think shack can actualy hold on with all the other speed in here? talking ex now not super

[orioles]

Historicaly Derby favorites that flop bounce back in the Preakness. See Snow Chief.

[mikemca]

yoiu think shack can actualy hold on with all the other speed in here? talking ex now not super

I'm thinking Flashpoint is going to open up on everyone with Dance City and Astrology a little behind then Shackleford and Concealed Identity just behind them.





The Pace to me



FLASHPOINT
___________
___________
DANCE CITY
ASTROLOGY
___________
CONCEALED IDENTITY
SHACKLEFORD
___________
___________
___________
MUCHO MACHO MAN
SWAY AWAY
NORMAN ABJORNSON
MIDNITE INTERLUDE
ANIMAL KINGDOM
ISN'T HE PERFECT
MR COMMONS
____________
____________
____________
KING CONGIE
DIALED IN

[AbeFroman]

Tony, you may have posted it previously, but why do you dislike Astrology so much?

[rthoughton]

Astrology has been placed perfectly just off the pace in his last two stakes races and has failed to capitalize either time. Took the lead in the stretch and lost to twice the appeal.
I realize this wasnt directed at me, but I just can't back this horse in this spot with these results vs non G1 talent.
He will sit off the pace but will not have enough to overtake anyone or outrun the closers. MMM DialedIn and AK are superior horses. At this distance shackleford could hold them off down the stretch. Don't expect it to happen but shack will be in my bottom

[TonyP]

Tony, you may have posted it previously, but why do you dislike Astrology so much?

rthoughton answered it and this is what I was thinking along with hes to slow

[TonyP]

thats how Im thinking it sets up to Mike and with shack having to chase nots sure he can close and will proly flatten

[mtneer1212]

I really like Dialed In this round........ should be a better pace to run at, and he won't be 25 lengths off them this time

[rthoughton]

I really like Dialed In this time out as well. I will probably tweak my trifecta posts and work on some kind of 0.10 Super wheel with him on the top.
If he wins (and I just think he will), and AK hits the board, I am looking at cashing a ticket for half of the tri and 1/20 of that super. That would be swell.

[rthoughton]

.10 Super was posted earlier that it is offered. It was not offered for the Derby. How do you know that it will be offered for this race for sure? I hope it is, but they didn't even offer a 0.50super on the derby.

Dialed In / AK MMM Shack / ALL / ALL = 39.60. that needs some serious help.

[TonyP]

.10 Super was posted earlier that it is offered. It was not offered for the Derby. How do you know that it will be offered for this race for sure? I hope it is, but they didn't even offer a 0.50super on the derby.

Dialed In / AK MMM Shack / ALL / ALL = 39.60. that needs some serious help.

yeah toss shack out of place position

[mikemca]

.10 Super was posted earlier that it is offered. It was not offered for the Derby. How do you know that it will be offered for this race for sure? I hope it is, but they didn't even offer a 0.50super on the derby. Dialed In / AK MMM Shack / ALL / ALL = 39.60. that needs some serious help.

It wasn't offered at the derby because it is up to the track and Churchill decided NO.






This is for the Preakness

WAGERING MENU

The meet will feature several new wagers. Pimlico has added a second Pick 4 and scrapped the Pick 6 in favor of a Pick 5 (races 5-9), with a reduced takeout of 18%. Wagering will also include 10 cent superfectas and 50 cent Pick 3’s, Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s.

“The goal is to make it affordable and create opportunities for the fans,” added Chuckas. “The 10 cent supers and 50 cent Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5’s do just that.”

[APwins]

Preakness

# 1 Astrology 15/1.....Owned by same connections that won Preakness with Rachel Alexandra 2 years ago and Curlin in 2007. Passed on the Kentucky Derby to run here. Ready for a huge effort!

# 10 Dialed In 9/2.....Did Zito use the Derby as a prep for The Preakness? Thats the buzz. Dialed In stands to make a 5.5 million dollar bonus if he wins this race, reason enough for him to be pointed for the Preakness

# 9 Mucho Macho Man 6/1.....Is always in the mix. Was closing fast in the derby just missing second.Is a big threat to win it all

# 4 Flashpoint 20/1.....Speed Speed Speed. Flashpoint will be out winging it on the front end. Primed for a top effort

# 11 Animal Kingdom 2/1....Will be flying late, exotics

# 5 Shackleford 12/1....Will be running on the lead, Speedster hung in to finish fourth in the Derby. Shorter distance may mean a big ticket win

Wagering Strategy

WIN ,PLACE ,SHOW on # 1 Astrology

* Exactas 1-over 10-9-4-11-5
* 1-10-9-4 exacta box $2 exacta $24
* 1-5-4-9 exacta box $2 exacta $24
*1-over all exacta wheel $2 exacta $26
* Trifecta 1 over 10-9-4-11 over ALL = $96 for a $2 wager
* Trifecta 1 over 10-9-11-5 over 2- 3 -4- 6-7-14 = $48 for a $2 wager
* Trifecta 1-10-9 over 11 over 4-5 2-3-6-12-13-14 = $36 for a $2 wager
*10 Cent Superfecta 1 over 10-9-4-11 over 5 2-3-7-12-13-14 over ALL = $26.40 for 10 Cents

[Thunder Gulch]

8 of 12 dirt routes at PIM this week have been won by the leader at the 2nd call. Dialed in better be a monster to overcome that unless these guys push the half in 44.

[zou1222]

8 of 12 dirt routes at PIM this week have been won by the leader at the 2nd call. Dialed in better be a monster to overcome that unless these guys push the half in 44.

People always rush to conclusions about biases - looking at the results many of the front runners who won were heavy favorites..

[rthoughton]

It wasn't offered at the derby because it is up to the track and Churchill decided NO.






This is for the Preakness

WAGERING MENU

The meet will feature several new wagers. Pimlico has added a second Pick 4 and scrapped the Pick 6 in favor of a Pick 5 (races 5-9), with a reduced takeout of 18%. Wagering will also include 10 cent superfectas and 50 cent Pick 3’s, Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s.

“The goal is to make it affordable and create opportunities for the fans,” added Chuckas. “The 10 cent supers and 50 cent Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5’s do just that.”

effin' sweet .

[rthoughton]

a four horse exx? that's beyond retarded.

[rthoughton]

http://www1.drf.com/tc/preakness/201...stakes-pps.pdf

[rthoughton]

Historicaly Derby favorites that flop bounce back in the Preakness. See Snow Chief.

Since 1980, 6 beaten favorites have returned to win the Preakness.
Since 1986, 15 Derby winners have either Won or grabbed Second in the Preakness. (9wins, 6place)

I like the latter stat better.
Im beginning to change my mind on Dialed In.

Macho Man Randy Savage just died, and I can get Mucho Macho Man at 6/1 right now.

[Thunder Gulch]

People always rush to conclusions about biases - looking at the results many of the front runners who won were heavy favorites..

Well that's why I posted yesterday about the 40-1 shot getting photo'd by a 4-5, the 18-1 winner, and yesterday another 25-1 runs 2nd. True, a lot of these were just too fast, but there is some evidence that those who shouldn't figure are holding on. 12 races isn't a huge sample size, but 67% is a pretty good trend for anything over a week.

[zebra58]

early betting has dialed in fav 3/1, animal kingdom 7/2, just early money but good news for animal kingdom fans

[zou1222]

Well that's why I posted yesterday about the 40-1 shot getting photo'd by a 4-5, the 18-1 winner, and yesterday another 25-1 runs 2nd. True, a lot of these were just too fast, but there is some evidence that those who shouldn't figure are holding on. 12 races isn't a huge sample size, but 67% is a pretty good trend for anything over a week.

Yeah I think early tomorrow will be the telling point if there is a potential bias.. tracks can change so much day to day.. best of luck.. i like AK.

[rthoughton]

Is the macho man's death an omen?

[blindd]

really thinking animal kingdom?

[mikemca]

Is the macho man's death an omen?

I think MMM is the most likely to hit the board.If I could only make one bet he would be my key.At the prices though I'm really interested in Dance City and Sway Away.

[statnerds]

I guess 14 is better than 19.

I think the Belmont is the easiest of the 3 to cap and therefore will simply tail some of you gents.

Thanks for all the insight.

[Timmah2483]

"MUCHO MUCHO MAN.... I WANNA BE.... RANNNNNDY!"

I think his line is going to drop based on Randy Savage's death. bad timing! should have been Fred Savage, so much gayness in that boy.

[bb_skoots]

I think MMM is the most likely to hit the board.If I could only make one bet he would be my key.At the prices though I'm really interested in Dance City and Sway Away.

I agree with this. I will watch the odds board for possible pay outs on #9 MMM and bet accordingly. Also if #9-#11 exacta has value will play that.

Will probably play longshots 6,7,8,14 in a tri if there isn't value in above bets.

[kboiler]

I agree about Macho Man....I feel like I HAVE to bet soemthing in honor of one of my childhood heroes!!

[rthoughton]

I think MMM will be my singled horse.
My good friend also likes sway away and dance city. And what about the one eyed gelding?