Originally Posted by
str
I do not think that I could blanketly agree that the gap of price in the progeny is probably very significant. Maybe it could be somewhat significant and I guess you consider it, but I would not lean on it. Why? Because I think I would want to make that determination as I saw each instance and not a blanket statement.
If both of these are homebreds, I would need to take into account who the breeders were. That is because maybe 15K is actually more monetary risk and value to the owner of that horse than 40k is to the other owner. Because we are dealing with people, we need to look inside those numbers and see what it actually represents. That might be impossible if we are living where we live and the race is in Minnesota or Texas. If so, we would probably have no clue. But if this had happened in Md., and I was all over the game like I used to be, I would have knowledge of all those factors and a determination as to who to bet, while still somewhat of a guess, would be a much more educated one than if they were people I did not know. But without that tool, and most people would not be in a position to have that, it might be best to stop short of that theory.
The ages of the broodmares might also come into play, not necessarily for the production, although it could, but the amount spent on the stallion. Again, that determination would come from the breeder and we just do not know exactly what they were thinking when the decision was made to spend that amount of money or not.
Another question might be, what was the stud fee 3 years earlier when they had to pay it? Was the 40k horse only 15k back then or was the 15 horse only 5k back then? I don't think we know that do we?
Let me ask you because I do not know anymore but when they show the stud fees, are those numbers updated annually or are they the amounts actually paid several years ago? I would assume annually and I am pretty sure that was the way it was when it was first introduced to the form, only because there are so many foals each year I would assume it would be real tough to have an accurate line on what each owner paid dating back to when the payment actually occurred. And taking it a step further, deals are struck all the time with Stallion owners for pricing. Maybe that owner that went to the 40k stallion only actually paid 20k because the coverings were lacking in April of that year when a deal was struck. Or maybe the deal was they go to that stud for 2 years and they flip a coin to see who retains ownership of foal 1 and 2 prior to the birth and the owner of the mare pays no fee at all but basically trades a foal for a stud fee.
Or the trainer that received a free share for life because he trained the stallion when it ran, sold his booking that year to someone he knew at a reduced rate.
This kind of stuff does happen in that business. And because it does, it can become so complicated that it overloads your brain with all this stuff.
So I think you have to think in terms of " all things being equal" but by doing so, not take it to the actual monetary motive of each breeder.
Instead, just rely, like you do, on the effectiveness of the stallion with firsters, watching the patterns you watch and stay with that. I think that trying to guess the motives of each breeders thought process will drive you crazy. Mainly I guess because plenty of breeders ARE crazy. Lol. And you will go nuts trying to figure out people , some of which ARE nuts.
Hope that makes sense and feel free to follow up if I confused the issue further than it already was.
Also, nice call on that race even though it might not have worked out. Sounds like you were all over it but ultimately went the wrong way with the final choice.