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just saw his pp on brisnet.. off the top that's got to be a grade 1 level figure he ran in his debut.. damn impressive.. stretching out a furlong makes perfect sense.. think shivaree (ralph nicks lol) would have to be a contender also besides green light go.. be rooting for your buddy tomorrowOriginally Posted by Louisvillekid1
Last edited by JBEX; 01-31-20 at 07:31 PM.
Was not so much the right eye here as this horse was so good he could have had that pinning trip and still been fine IMO, but the pressure from the outside made the rider do things he did not want to do. That's what emptied the tank IMO.
And yes, I do agree it shows the greatness of the horse to put Frosted away.
I can only speak for myself . If I was going to claim a horse, and if I had other owners that were looking to claim one in the same price range, I always tried to give them 1st crack at it. Back then thou, no cell phones so getting in touch with people was not always easy. But I did my best. If they wanted the horse, I took it for them. If not, and I still wanted the horse , I claimed it for my family. That is the only way I could fight off the notion that I took the good ones for myself. It had to be a part of my business model and it was.
There is more time at sales to prepare for upcoming hip numbers to be led to the ring. But because you can typically estimate what I range of price a horse will go for, the owners can see what they want to spend or not. You might be bidding for the horse up to lets say 100k for one guy, then when he hits his cap, it is the other guys horse to get. That only happens when multiple people want the horse and both owners have to be on board with that. Can't run a shady outfit at the sales and claiming. It will always catch up to you. Always.
I have to think that most trainers do it the way I did. It's really the only way to stay in business long term or attract new clients. Everyone will ask that type of question before letting you represent them. In most cases, they are better in business than the trainer. So they expect that type of scenario. And, it is the fair and open way to do business.
Lastly, sometimes a guy like Casse wants the horse and figures, he will put together a group or find who wants it later. So the horse sells under his name, and the partnership or whatever gets worked out later. You can do that in sales but the owner must be exact and no screwing around when it comes to claiming.
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Oh yeah. Seemed almost every trainer has their strengths and weaknesses. I did. That was a big part of trying to profile each trainer. Same thing with jockeys. Didn't talk about it much as most people, both riders and trainers will get offended if you talk about it so I never shared that stuff. But it is absolutely true and I constantly watched for it.
You could also notice this with ship ins when the trainer would ship several times a year into Md. Sometimes it became easy pickens, if there is such a thing in racing, to spot that. That went both ways as to the horse going to run well or poorly depending on the setup. I'm sure it still exists. I had a pro capper come up to be and talk about my shippers more than once either before or after the fact. I would never acknowledge it, kind of played dumb, but he was spot on with his reasoning of me. That was one of those things I never talked about to people until after I had left but leaned on quite a bit when I was there.
A very solid handicapping tool no doubt about it.
Hey STR: who are you playing for the bowl today? ON KC here. GL if wagering.
KC is so much fun to watch. Always liked Any Reid and Mahomes is unreal. Tons of speed makes every play a must see. I remember being a kid when they were matriculating the ball down the field with #14 Ed Podolak in the early Super Bowls. Loved his closed face mask back then.
It would be fun to see that type of team win but I have to go with SF. Guess it's the old school run the ball and stop the run stuff that makes me see it that way.
Either way it's really nice to see fresh faces that are fun to watch. My pick is SF.
Good Luck EZ.
ok thx for the take. good to see NE not in the game this year as well. GL.
ed podolak currently
https://youtu.be/zBFBMcuKitc
Hey str I tried searching but couldnt find it but basically....can turf courses have severe biases in the same way as dirt? What about synthetic tracks?
I've started following Hong Kong and absolutely love the information they provide on the website. Just wondering if I should be watching for biases on their turf and aw tracks as well.
hey str
want to see the fire sale of fire sales.. look at the even money ml favorite in R2 @ gulfstream tomorrow (if you get a hold of pp's )..besides his recent races look at the works...assuming he's not scratched something's gotta be very wrong with that horse..geez !!
Another kozhan winner today
My boys untitled I think ran pretty well considering the squeeze at the start
wires the field @ 1-5 and wins by 3+ ..was of course taken for $12.5k so obviously the new trainer got a deal lol..background here..claimed two starts back on 12/13 for $20k out of a maiden turf route where he was within two lengths at every call and finished 4th by 3 lengths..the pace was about 4 lengths fast in the race..next out on 1/6 they put him in for $50k @ 6f and runs 2nd by less than 2 lengths..so dropping down to a 12.5k obviously not good right lol..guess the trainer (one of the best joe saffie)able to gage what's wrong after his last race and put him in the proper spot..str like your opinion on this if you can
yeah that was a tough trip..did he exit the race in good shape and do you know what they're thinking about for his next race?
Q. can turf courses have severe biases in the same way as dirt? What about synthetic tracks?
A. Turf courses CAN have a severe bias. First thing to look for is when it is mowed. The length of grass can change how the course plays. Different courses will react differently or maybe not at all to this. So understanding, through monitoring replays or at a minimum charts, should give you a handle on a particular course. Also, how wet the course is and if applicable, how high the water table is in conjunction with the course. I mention this because of Laurel. It is built on a swamp. So when the old turf course got very wet, it took forever to start to dry out. They rebuilt it and raised it in height to help with that about 25 years ago.
I have not monitored it recently but it used to be a slower course that allowed the rail to bog down. Can't say about currently.
Conversely, Pimlico was almost always about when they cut it. In the spring, early in a typical meet that started in late March and ran through May, the course was pretty fair but as the dates got into mid April, the grass grew real quickly and it was thick. If they missed a cutting because of rain, and it was April, outside closers ruled but as soon as they cut it, and because of the short meet and the speed of growth that time of year, they typically overcut it, it favor speed. And because the speed had probably run verses the bias last out and were WITH a big speed bias if cut that morning or the evening before, speed did well usually at an inflated price due to the poor last showing. That scenario can be a cash cow for a spring meet. Gotta be patient like with darn near everything I guess, but there are scores to be had at Pimlico in the spring under the right circumstances.
I cannot speak about synthetics. Never raced on them and never followed them. I assume the degree of banking and any angle of straightaway surface from the crown to the rail would force more material down the hill towards the rail if not maintained often enough having the same dead rail effect or hot rail if overgraded back up towards the crown but you would have to monitor how often grading normally took place and then see what happens if they break the norm and grade too quickly or slowly between days. Not even sure if rain has a say in if they can grade synthetics. Sorry I can't be more help there.
As for Hong Kong, maybe goggle their growing season and their wet season. That will tell you when an abnormality might occur. Biases are rarely created by a normal schedule. It's the abnormal schedule that makes track supers have to make tough decisions or overreact. And that is when biases appear. That and BIG racing days when top horses will be competing.
Hope that helps.
My best guess on this is he either saw something suspicious that he felt could worsen or something that he felt would hold the horse back from being able to compete at its highest level for any length of time without the possibility of further aggravating a potential issue, thus making an already delayed career linger more. I doubt we are talking about any kind of new injury. More along the lines of a non life threatening problem that might become worse if the horse was pushed too hard or asked to much. You will find that from time to time with for instance, a tendon that just does not look perfect. The horse is sound without meds, but the tendon looks suspicious . Those can go wrong quickly or look no more suspicious after 25 more races. For something like that, it's a best guess thing. And a problem like that won't have the horse falling down, breaking something, it's more like pulling a hamstring. It heals in time but they can't run and it might very well reoccur. Especially if asked to run all time highs race after race.
Or maybe it was a breathing problem which will never really get better . Who knows. But whatever the case, he decided that he would be fine with getting his money back or making a quick buck and moving on. Or, if it did not get claimed, go n/w2 for 12,500 and win another one.
It's really hard to say for sure but those are the most likely. The reason I come up with that is because I know they identify workouts at Gulfstream so that WAS him that worked and I can't imagine working him 7 days apart twice and running a week later if it was anything terribly serious or life threatening. With the other trainer basically dropping him off decent races, it seems everyone agrees that it's best to spot him to win. And if you are a winning claiming trainer the name of the game is win. Does that make sense?
yes it does and I was thinking along those lines also.. I think it's an excellent thing to remember also that these types aren't auto-tosses and can be well meant at the lower level.. however with an average to excellent trainer these types over the long haul are certain underlays i'm sure.. thanks str
hey str
was watching the post parade in the hong kong races.. they give this a lot more tv time then over there and it includes commentary.. only reason I bring this up is I saw a horse throw his head back and it seemed to be a little close for comfort to the jockey's head.. have jockey's ever been hit in the head when this happens? boy that's gotta hurt if it has
then again guess there's no reason for the jockey's head to be too forward at that point
Last edited by JBEX; 02-12-20 at 07:03 PM.
If USA could improve their TV coverage of racing, thy would do a 4 way split screen and show 4 at a time warming up. And while I understand that some players don't want to take it to that level, they at least should have the choice. But that costs management money so good luck with that.
As for the throwing of the head, boy I really disliked that in a horse if they did it often. Not that many do, but some certainly do, especially South American bred horses, and it is a nasty habit that is almost impossible to break. It seems most horses that do that have trouble ever running to their true potential. Now if it is a one time thing like the bit catching on a tooth or a sudden jerk for some reason, that is different. But if the jockey seemed upset by it, it was probably on the horse. And if they hit the rider with their head, it's like a punch right between the eyes or on the nose. It can knock them out or have them seeing stars for sure.
Have to say that if I saw a horse that did that as a habit, I stayed away from them. If I trained one that was like that, I had to warn the rider. It can be that bad. Firsters or maidens can be somewhat excused if it happens once or twice as their mouths can be ultra tender at times and the pony, if that is new, can bother things but an older horse doing that does not make a rider happy at all.
The riders head CAN be that forward while warming up at times but that depends on several things. Very few reasons for the horse to do that. Riders hate it generally.
yeah haven't seen that too often but can imagine that being a bit disconcerting to the jockey..probably less painfull to get hit by mike tyson wearing brass knuckles lol
I've mentioned before that hong kong really does a great job with their horse racing product..even if you check it out once out of curiosity it's something to see ..admittedly i only use a tiny fraction of what's there but certainly nice that it's available ..free pp's also
thanks str
you guys that have trained/owned have you ever instructed your jock to instead of go for the "win" just try to get a pay day and run in top 4? Do trainers/owners do this? I have seen many races over the years where jocks on best horse seem intentionally not to be on move to soon or go after speed even though fractions would dedicate that they do and we all know the Jocks have a clock in their heads that so freaking accurate...
hey str
if you could manage to take a look at gulfstream R12 have a question.. it's a 4yo msw turf route (7.5f a route to me).. wondering what you think of #2 astoundment (12-1).. we've talked about late starting 3yo's and early 4yo's not being a good thing.. obviously something went amiss with this gal to lay her off since april but was thinking isn't it better that she at least showed a little talent early on vs a horse starting off very late? she's been working up a storm at pine meadows and should be very fit (initials pmm always thought was pine meadows training center but doesn't exactly fit.. is a major place though I'm pretty sure)
one other thing a little interesting (nothing to do with capping the race I think) is she was bred by phillips along with the ken and sarah ramsey which probably explains the kitten's joy mare.. phillips racing of course as you know a big name in the breeding game going back a long time and james toner has been training their horse's for a long while.. yet this one's listed as a 50k weaning sale but phillips still at least part owner (can't see whole thing).. does this mean they didn't get the minimum at auction and held on to her or bought her back at some point after that? not as interested in this as the other question
Last edited by JBEX; 02-15-20 at 10:25 AM.
Q. you guys that have trained/owned have you ever instructed your jock to instead of go for the "win" just try to get a pay day and run in top 4?
A. Speaking for myself , no.
Q. Do trainers/owners do this?
A. With as many stupid things I saw other trainers do during my years training, I would say, sure.
I would not know about owners only because I never had an owner that had my ok to say any more to the jockey about an upcoming race than hello and good luck.
I have no doubt though, especially at smaller tracks like CT or Penn. Nat, etc., that an owner can call shots . Not with a name trainer with a barn full, but with a low % and or smaller trainer that they hire for the sole reason of having a major say so in the day to day training and rider instructions as well as placement of horses in certain races. I was approached by one or two like that in Md. back when I started off in the 70's. Because of my age and being new, they inquired. Those conversations lasted about 30 seconds.
When I trained, it was treated as a business from day 1. And coming off being an asst. trainer for the leading trainer in the world the year before that taught me that, it is all I knew. The bet cashing angle was non existent in my mind. It was all about winning. But certainly that was not the case for everyone. There were several trainers that constantly tried to play games. That became more and more obvious to me once I became a trainer.
If you see an owner/trainer that has a small string of horses and a low %, that is the type of horse you need to be careful of jumping up. If there are games being played, the trainer being the owner has nobody to answer to but themselves. That could be an area to watch. But a higher % outfit, that type of scenario just doesn't fit.
Q. I have seen many races over the years where jocks on best horse seem intentionally not to be on move to soon or go after speed even though fractions would dedicate that they do and we all know the Jocks have a clock in their heads that so freaking accurate...
A. The one thing I will try and convince you of is that all jocks might try and have a clock in their heads but sometimes the clock just doesn't work so well. Now if we are talking about NY, SA., Gulfstream in the winter, you know, big name track with high purses, yes, those class A jocks all do have a good clock in their heads. But at lesser venues, not as much as you might think.
I've talked about this alot in here, and jocks get pissed when I say it, but it is as true a statement as I could ever make. 95% or more of riders excel in one style of riding and are not as good at another style. They know it, and I understand why most won't admit it. But it is indeed true.
Racing decisions can make jocks look like they wait too long but they may have decided not to lose too much ground or wanted to wait for the inside to open up and it never did, or whatever the case. With all the multitude of situations that each race offers, it is hard to say for sure. But when they run out of room, it all looks the same. Just as you described.
Because I don't follow it nearly as closely as I did, I do not know the strengths and weaknesses of riders like I did but statistics rarely lie and if you can find a breakdown of a rider and how they do on the lead, with the pace, and closing, that would probably answer a lot of this. Do they even have this? It is very valuable info to have if it exists.
If there is a particular race or set of races you have in mind, if you can post the rerun I will be happy to look at it and break it down any time. I've done that before and I think it helps players better understand what is unfolding during the race.
Last edited by str; 02-15-20 at 11:20 AM.
Q. obviously something went amiss with this gal to lay her off since april but was thinking isn't it better that she at least showed a little talent early on vs a horse starting off very late?
A. 100 times better. This type is nothing like the unraced 4 yr. old type.
Q. she's been working up a storm at pine meadows and should be very fit (initials pmm always thought was pine meadows training center but doesn't exactly fit.. is a major place though I'm pretty sure)
A. PMM is Palm Meadows and yes you are correct, it is a major training track.
Q. So I saw the pp's and her workout schedule is solid. I don't know if you have ever read through this thread but I'm pretty sure I said that a rule of thumb is 90 days to get a horse fit to run 3/4. That rule includes 30 days of galloping before 60 days of workouts with galloping in between. I am not sure how long she has actually trained but best guess is it is 90-110 days. I say that because of her workout schedule. Since 12/13 it has not been interrupted. That is a real good thing. She started of at 3/8ths which is dead on. Then, advanced to several 1/2's , also dead on. These works were every 6 or 7 days. That's perfect. She shows one two week gap and a 3/8ths which is weird but I would bet that what the trainer did there was alter the style of workout from simple breezes to longer very slow works that were too slow to time and then have the horse speed up the last 1/2 mile. Something like a 7/8 work at 15,15,15,14, and the last 3/8ths in 37 and change. She probably did that the week she showed no work but it fooled the clockers or just started too slow to publish and only picked it up the last 1/4 ( Never understood too slow to publish. I find it ridiculous personally).( It's like publishing that Rocky only worked out a 1/2 a mile and than ran the steps in Philly before he fought Apollo Creed. Wouldn't it help players if they knew he also ran slower early for multiple miles prior to doing that?) When it comes to works, It's not how you start , it's how you finish right?
Anyway, that 3/8ths move on Jan. 13th was probably a second round of what I mentioned. I say that because it does not fit the progression she was making and you wouldn't drop back to 3/8ths after two 1/2's. The Jan. 26th work around the dogs is great as are the last two works.
My best guess without seeing her is that she is dead fit for 3/4's and probably fit for 7/8ths but it could be close. It depends on if she is what I call easy to get fit or hard. No way to know that unless you are the trainer . And because fillies are typically but not always easier to have fit of a long layoff than boys, I would say it would be a go from that standpoint.
The trainer is 16% off a long time and 16% on turf. Those are fine. How about the rider? Does he ride Velasquez often? If not, that could be a positive.
All in all, if you like the spot I see no reason to think differently on paper. She might come up a bit short but what the hell at 12-1 or hopefully better. She certainly ran against better last year and she showed money as a firster. A lot to like IMO.
Should have a solid pace to run at with 2-3 burners outside and wanting to get over with that quick run to the 1st turn.
All in all, I see nothing that would stop me from playing her.
Last edited by str; 02-15-20 at 12:00 PM.
Sorry, missed one.
Q. does this mean they didn't get the minimum at auction and held on to her or bought her back at some point after that? not as interested in this as the other question
A. If they had a reserve on her and she did not make that amount it would say RNA, Reserve not attained.
Because they bought her back she either just cleared the reserve or maybe it was 50k and they were bidding her up or maybe they just didn't like the amount so they bought her back. But according to the form, she did clear the ring as a sold horse. The owners say Debbie somebody owns along with Phipps. So maybe the Ramsey's portion left and Deborah bought back with Phipps? Either way they pretty much kept her in the Phipps family and if Deborah is a Ramsey they just moved the ownership around. My best guess.
ok str.. I thought you'd say running early on well and coming off the layoff a better profile than starting out later and love the detailed work analysis.. remember you talking about running slow eighths and then hitting it the last 3f..possibly that happened here and you're right that it makes no sense to not count the early part.. all it shows in the brisnets is Johnny v hasn't rode for toner in the last 60 days so another good sign.. although he's become just an average turf rider over the last few year.. still all in all like what I'm seeing.. it's raining there now but race is still listed as going on the turf.. have to monitor that also.. thanks again
first want to say I was wrong about it being out of a kj mare as horse is actually sired by him.. so buy back seems like a likely reason phillips still part owners.. you've seen the name phillip's (not phipp's) before haven't you?? I just remember going back a long ways seeing them as breeders.. seem to be associated with well bred turf horses.. think one of their stallions was "silver hawk" who was a great distance turf sire and believe he, off the top, was by the great "roberto" (guessing by the timing he might have been named after roberto clemente but just a guess)
have to run so may not get back right away if you respond
taken off the turf..have to keep an eye out for her
Yes. I have seen the name before. Just glanced though and thought I saw Phipps. Sorry about that.
And you are correct about Roberto. He was owned by the Galbreath family who also owned the Pittsburgh Pirates then and they did name the horse after Clemente.
no problem..phipps and phillips a quick look very similar and both big names with of course the former being more noteworthy
always thought that's why the horse was named that but didn't know why..btw roberto was silver hawk's (1979) sire
and was foaled in 1969..by same sire as halo (hail to reason) and dam won cca oaks..they obviously must have liked what they saw early on to give him that name and of course they were right track and breeding shed..probably without looking was still running when clemente died in that plane crash on 12/31/1972..i'm 56 so a little too young to remember the baseball player (and the horse of course..mr ed lol) but guess you probably got to see most of his career..always heard he was one of the all time greats
Last edited by JBEX; 02-15-20 at 04:37 PM.
What about this info about evidence planted on Big Brown Ricky
Casse stretched him out in Tampa vs Gouvener Morris , was gonna be fountain of youth but now the Gotham
saw he finished 2nd by a little over a length..weird thing is
the race was .O2 seconds off the track record yet the race didn't make the top 27 beyers of the year for 3yo''s ?? Track must have been lightning fast..to me overall that's a slight positive for him..He obviously ran well,lost to a solid horse but I give a little leeway because of the glib surface..Gotham @ aqueduct smart spot as it's a 1 turn mile..Overall on the beyer scale this is a very slow group..two divisions of the risen star stakes at fairgrounds yielded a winner who ran only a 92 and the other didn't crack the aforementioned top 27 so had to be lower than a 91..that's slow
It is the truth coming out. I guess the guilty conscience is catching up to some of the retired guys. This whole thing was set up for the public to think NY was trying to clean up racing and at the same time rid themselves of someone they had no answer for. Sadly, they pulled it off. And in the process they ruined his life.
Those that know him well or were around him at the time have known this since day 1.
What they did to him makes me sick.
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