[str]

...

[str]

...

[str]

Here’s an example

race 2 Belmont

Quiet Out East , it just says claimed by Linda Rice

ill almost be willing to bet , next time out

she isn’t listed as owner

sometimes I see it , but lots I don’t

The rule forever was no change of ownership for at least 60 days after a claim.

I would be shocked if that has changed.

Do let me know if you see it. I will inquire if so.

And JBEX was right . Always check the full charts to see exactly what it says.

That was copied from the claims clerk info given to the racing form and is accurate.

[str]

Thank you sir for your taking your time on this and your compliments. Watch now McKinzie is gonna win by open lengths... lol

I have another question about morning lines. How accurate do you feel reflect the ability the horse? We have all heard the phrase, “watch the tote board “. What are your thoughts?

Really depends on who is doing the morning line. Some are excellent while some others are terrible. At some mid tracks and plenty of lesser quality tracks, they can lump several tasks into one job and often times it shows by the quality of the early line.

It is an edge to know if the linesmaker is solid or way off as some will not know that.

Me personally, I never paid any attention to the early lines, but I do realize I was in a unique position.

In today's world of rolling daily doubles, I would suggest to look at the payouts everytime they are available for the upcoming race. I think that will tell you a lot more than someone who has to assign odds before the scratches are out. You know how it goes, 3 speeds but two scratch and lone speed was given 10-1. That alone probably makes the horse 4 or 5-1 as lone speed. Rolling doubles can clean that stuff up for you in most cases as well as tell you of firsters or horses with some hidden forum. The money more often than not, tells plenty.

But in the case of a sharp morning line guy, I suppose they are useful.

Hope that helps.

[mrginandtonic]

Really depends on who is doing the morning line. Some are excellent while some others are terrible. At some mid tracks and plenty of lesser quality tracks, they can lump several tasks into one job and often times it shows by the quality of the early line.

It is an edge to know if the linesmaker is solid or way off as some will not know that.

Me personally, I never paid any attention to the early lines, but I do realize I was in a unique position.

In today's world of rolling daily doubles, I would suggest to look at the payouts everytime they are available for the upcoming race. I think that will tell you a lot more than someone who has to assign odds before the scratches are out. You know how it goes, 3 speeds but two scratch and lone speed was given 10-1. That alone probably makes the horse 4 or 5-1 as lone speed. Rolling doubles can clean that stuff up for you in most cases as well as tell you of firsters or horses with some hidden forum. The money more often than not, tells plenty.

But in the case of a sharp morning line guy, I suppose they are useful.

Hope that helps.

Thank you sir for you input. The reason I asked is that I couldn’t figure out why the morning line was set the way it was set on a race. Today at Belmont Race 8. The 3- Turnagain Ride (ML 8-1) and the 4- Ashaar (ML 3-1). These two first time starters are 2 yr olds, the 3 is trained by Chad Brown and the 4 is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. The race is MSW at 7f dirt. Chad has better numbers in every category and the 3 cost $750k and the 4 cost $650k and they are both by Into Mischief. The 3’s damsire is Empire Make and the 4’s damsire is Coronado’s Quest. Both are owned by power houses. The 3 is owned by OXO Equine and 4 is owned by Shadwell Stable. Both are have steady workouts. Brown’s 1st time starters win @ 20% and Kiaran is merely 4%. I mean everything should point to lower ML for the 3, yet the 3 was 8-1 and the 4 was 3-1. That just didn’t make sense to me. It’s almost like they know something that we don’t know. I pick these two to win, and when 3 was scratched, 4 was my top choice cuz I didn’t like anything else. Ultimately, the 4 went off at 9-2 and he won. I made some good money. But I guess I will never find out what would have happened if the 3 also ran. I just could not figure that out; I just thought it was really strange.

[JBEX]

Thank you sir for you input. The reason I asked is that I couldn’t figure out why the morning line was set the way it was set on a race. Today at Belmont Race 8. The 3- Turnagain Ride (ML 8-1) and the 4- Ashaar (ML 3-1). These two first time starters are 2 yr olds, the 3 is trained by Chad Brown and the 4 is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. The race is MSW at 7f dirt. Chad has better numbers in every category and the 3 cost $750k and the 4 cost $650k and they are both by Into Mischief. The 3’s damsire is Empire Make and the 4’s damsire is Coronado’s Quest. Both are owned by power houses. The 3 is owned by OXO Equine and 4 is owned by Shadwell Stable. Both are have steady workouts. Brown’s 1st time starters win @ 20% and Kiaran is merely 4%. I mean everything should point to lower ML for the 3, yet the 3 was 8-1 and the 4 was 3-1. That just didn’t make sense to me. It’s almost like they know something that we don’t know. I pick these two to win, and when 3 was scratched, 4 was my top choice cuz I didn’t like anything else. Ultimately, the 4 went off at 9-2 and he won. I made some good money. But I guess I will never find out what would have happened if the 3 also ran. I just could not figure that out; I just thought it was really strange.

coronado's quest is more speed,win early than empire maker who holds the class edge..the mclaughlin (cq) has produced 2 winners from 4 starters at 2 while chad's hadn't produced a 2yo winner..mclaughlin's also a sibling to 2 stakes winners..also possible that mclaughlin's might
have a sibling who won first out but I didn't go that far..all that being said still surprised at the disparity

[str]

Thank you sir for you input. The reason I asked is that I couldn’t figure out why the morning line was set the way it was set on a race. Today at Belmont Race 8. The 3- Turnagain Ride (ML 8-1) and the 4- Ashaar (ML 3-1). These two first time starters are 2 yr olds, the 3 is trained by Chad Brown and the 4 is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. The race is MSW at 7f dirt. Chad has better numbers in every category and the 3 cost $750k and the 4 cost $650k and they are both by Into Mischief. The 3’s damsire is Empire Make and the 4’s damsire is Coronado’s Quest. Both are owned by power houses. The 3 is owned by OXO Equine and 4 is owned by Shadwell Stable. Both are have steady workouts. Brown’s 1st time starters win @ 20% and Kiaran is merely 4%. I mean everything should point to lower ML for the 3, yet the 3 was 8-1 and the 4 was 3-1. That just didn’t make sense to me. It’s almost like they know something that we don’t know. I pick these two to win, and when 3 was scratched, 4 was my top choice cuz I didn’t like anything else. Ultimately, the 4 went off at 9-2 and he won. I made some good money. But I guess I will never find out what would have happened if the 3 also ran. I just could not figure that out; I just thought it was really strange.

When dealing with first time starters, the standard morning line is 8-1. That is the starting point. From there, the linesmaker can adjust either way according to what they "know" or what they have heard. That said, everybody loves to hear about a firster and as a result, they are talked about much more than any other type starter around the track as well as with fans.

In a place like NY, firsters will always be the buzz mainly because of the cost of many of them. So if you see Kiaran's horse show up at 4-1 and Chad's horse show up at 8-1 in the morning line, when typically the opposite would be true, you can be confident that the talk around the clockers stand is on Kiaran's horse. Chad's is not bad, and JBEX is right to point out that the horse is probably best suited for a bit more ground and probably training for the bigger picture. Like as soon as next out if it is longer. Watch for blinkers, lasix "on" if they are not already. Your highlighted quote is the key. They DID know something.
And you will find out what might have happened when the 3 does start. Lets see if it starts at a mile instead. Who knows for sure but do try and follow it. It might very well lead to cashing a ticket when placed at the right time.

One question; was there a rolling double and if so, did you check and see what the payouts were on the eventual winner? If there was, I would venture to guess that it pointed right towards the winner.

Getting back to the 8-1 starting point on firsters, sometimes they will be listed higher than 8-1. What to do with those? Well, it is typically a lesser named trainer or one that does not put emphasis on winning first out. If there are multiple firsters in a race, they can't all be 8-1 so the linesmaker has to move some off that number albeit higher or lower. Or, it can be a horse with terribly slow works. But... as we all learned from Maximum Security, not every horse shows up in the morning.

And jumping off topic for a second, speaking of Max. Security, looks like it's deja Vu all over again as Yogi would say, with him running in a prep in the Bold Ruler and then a later stake like the Cigar or the Clark. He will probably be odds on and will only be about 80%. Let's see if someone else in the field is razor sharp although not as purely talented and can nail him late or outrun him early and pay a nice number. Make no mistake though, Max. Sec. is a darn nice horse. But won't be more than 80% of himself and will NOT be pushed all out to get the win if it comes down to it. Winning will not be the main objective. It will be 3rd behind getting a race into him and doing everything they can to allow him to come out of the race in fine shape. They do NOT want an all out exhausting race to occur.

I hope that we can continue to talk about firsters when necessary so you can gain understanding and with that, confidence in analyzing firsters. Yes, they are always a puzzle for everyone. But having at least some level of confidence and beginning to understand the ins and outs of how it all comes together can really help.
There are other subtleties as well with firsters, such as an odd rider choice, either an upgrade or a downgrade. Both have a story behind them in almost all cases.
Running two turns first out is a big clue towards the lack of natural speed a horse might or might not have. Might not, in most of these cases.
Knowing who runs first out almost always with lasix or blinkers and having the opposite occur. THAT can be big info. Have to check and see if it's a homebred though. Some homebred owners ask to try without lasix until later.
I know it sounds like a ton of info, and it is, but it eventually becomes a "feel" thing as much as it does pure reading. When that happens for you, you know you have arrived in a new place when it comes to firsters. That's because to " feel" it, you must have a lot of confidence in it. And in time, it WILL come.
Keep me posted and please feel free to ask as much as you feel necessary about it to get where you need to be with firsters.

All the best Mr. GandT !

[mrginandtonic]

When dealing with first time starters, the standard morning line is 8-1. That is the starting point. From there, the linesmaker can adjust either way according to what they "know" or what they have heard. That said, everybody loves to hear about a firster and as a result, they are talked about much more than any other type starter around the track as well as with fans.

In a place like NY, firsters will always be the buzz mainly because of the cost of many of them. So if you see Kiaran's horse show up at 4-1 and Chad's horse show up at 8-1 in the morning line, when typically the opposite would be true, you can be confident that the talk around the clockers stand is on Kiaran's horse. Chad's is not bad, and JBEX is right to point out that the horse is probably best suited for a bit more ground and probably training for the bigger picture. Like as soon as next out if it is longer. Watch for blinkers, lasix "on" if they are not already. Your highlighted quote is the key. They DID know something.
And you will find out what might have happened when the 3 does start. Lets see if it starts at a mile instead. Who knows for sure but do try and follow it. It might very well lead to cashing a ticket when placed at the right time.

One question; was there a rolling double and if so, did you check and see what the payouts were on the eventual winner? If there was, I would venture to guess that it pointed right towards the winner.

Getting back to the 8-1 starting point on firsters, sometimes they will be listed higher than 8-1. What to do with those? Well, it is typically a lesser named trainer or one that does not put emphasis on winning first out. If there are multiple firsters in a race, they can't all be 8-1 so the linesmaker has to move some off that number albeit higher or lower. Or, it can be a horse with terribly slow works. But... as we all learned from Maximum Security, not every horse shows up in the morning.

And jumping off topic for a second, speaking of Max. Security, looks like it's deja Vu all over again as Yogi would say, with him running in a prep in the Bold Ruler and then a later stake like the Cigar or the Clark. He will probably be odds on and will only be about 80%. Let's see if someone else in the field is razor sharp although not as purely talented and can nail him late or outrun him early and pay a nice number. Make no mistake though, Max. Sec. is a darn nice horse. But won't be more than 80% of himself and will NOT be pushed all out to get the win if it comes down to it. Winning will not be the main objective. It will be 3rd behind getting a race into him and doing everything they can to allow him to come out of the race in fine shape. They do NOT want an all out exhausting race to occur.

I hope that we can continue to talk about firsters when necessary so you can gain understanding and with that, confidence in analyzing firsters. Yes, they are always a puzzle for everyone. But having at least some level of confidence and beginning to understand the ins and outs of how it all comes together can really help.
There are other subtleties as well with firsters, such as an odd rider choice, either an upgrade or a downgrade. Both have a story behind them in almost all cases.
Running two turns first out is a big clue towards the lack of natural speed a horse might or might not have. Might not, in most of these cases.
Knowing who runs first out almost always with lasix or blinkers and having the opposite occur. THAT can be big info. Have to check and see if it's a homebred though. Some homebred owners ask to try without lasix until later.
I know it sounds like a ton of info, and it is, but it eventually becomes a "feel" thing as much as it does pure reading. When that happens for you, you know you have arrived in a new place when it comes to firsters. That's because to " feel" it, you must have a lot of confidence in it. And in time, it WILL come.
Keep me posted and please feel free to ask as much as you feel necessary about it to get where you need to be with firsters.

All the best Mr. GandT !

Thank you Sir for your explanations. I did not know that 8-1 is the starting point standard for all firsters. This one was a strange case for me. I did check if there were any public news regarding these two first time starters. I didn't find any (but I do not have the clockers' report) and all the published workouts in the form are "normal" to me and nothing special. In fact, Chad's horse had a bullet workout. As the odds on the DD, nothing strikes me (the next race winner was the heavy favorite). In fact, he went from ML 3-1 to 9-2, so the public dismissed him too. The fact that Kiaran is not known for 1st out winners (so so for 2yo) made it all more strange to me. As for distance, this race is for 7f; if the race was for 6f, then maybe someone can argue about needing more distance. To me, 7f is a very demanding distance for first time starters especially for 2yr old. The horse needs the speed and stamina to run well (IMO). The jock for Chad's was Rosario (who has excellent numbers with Chad and he is higher riding percentage) and for Kiaran was Bravo (who has so so numbers with Kiaran and so so numbers win percentage). In most cases, I can make out the reasons for ML as they are, but once in a while, I see something like this and I have always wanted to ask you (but couldn't find a sample).

As for Max Sec, I see that your point and yeah deja vu all over again. LOL. I am a little disappointed that he couldn't run in the Classic, but oh well, it is what it is. But, I am more curious as who will be on him? Will it be Saez still or is it gonna to someone else? Probably stay with same jockey since I haven't seen anything...

Thanks again for you time and explanations. I have already put Chad's horse, Turnagain Tide, in my virtual stable and will definitely follow him. I wonder if Chad had turf on his mind all along.....

[Louisvillekid1]

Great info

love the baby races

in ny, Chad and Pletcher don’t win with firsters who aren’t pounded at the window

i fade that angle all the time

another angle , is fade Pletcher chalk debuting in the claiming level

always fade Todd blinkers on in debut

it’s simply important to know which trainers at the track you play are patient or not

For instance Jorge Abreu is chad’s old assistant and with his new barn , they run early

Danny gargan is hitting at a 36% clip but terrible with firsters ( has one I like the future of today in the 4th) but think contessa finally ends the losing streak.

Linda rice terrible with firsters

I can make a list in NY, if it’s helpful of all trainers tendency’s



ooh big angle I forgot , if you see Todd or chad with a chalk firster debuting on the dirt , with a work on the turf ... fade... because grass is the plan , now sometimes they are good enough to still win , but you simply win in New York beating them

One of my best handicapping instincts come , in the feeling of those 2 firsters are gonna run or not.

They can create easy single opportunities as well as bet against spots that blow up the horizontal bets.

[Louisvillekid1]

If eddy barker firster’s are taking money pound

lots don’t now him outside of New York


the best 2 year old trainers (debut) in New York

Ward
Chad
Todd
Jeremiah
clement ( look this trainer used to be one of the best in the world on turf only, now he’s like re done his barn, they hit 19% and debut winners on dirt)
CC is really flipped his identity and it’s really something special
Asmussen
Duarte Jr
Abreu

—-

Donk
Weaver
Maker
Mott
Pretty much everyone else patient off the top of my head

maker , rice , gargan , servis are the best in the claiming gams

atras is solid , sure some others I’m missing

ill draw up a list if you guys want



- also look to see if trainers top pilot is riding the chalk firster

if they ready to go on debut , they put #1 on the saddle

Chad is javy
Todd is Johnny
Asmussen is Santana
mott is junior
etc

[mrginandtonic]

Great info

love the baby races

in ny, Chad and Pletcher don’t win with firsters who aren’t pounded at the window

i fade that angle all the time

another angle , is fade Pletcher chalk debuting in the claiming level

always fade Todd blinkers on in debut

it’s simply important to know which trainers at the track you play are patient or not

For instance Jorge Abreu is chad’s old assistant and with his new barn , they run early

Danny gargan is hitting at a 36% clip but terrible with firsters ( has one I like the future of today in the 4th) but think contessa finally ends the losing streak.

Linda rice terrible with firsters

I can make a list in NY, if it’s helpful of all trainers tendency’s



ooh big angle I forgot , if you see Todd or chad with a chalk firster debuting on the dirt , with a work on the turf ... fade... because grass is the plan , now sometimes they are good enough to still win , but you simply win in New York beating them

One of my best handicapping instincts come , in the feeling of those 2 firsters are gonna run or not.

They can create easy single opportunities as well as bet against spots that blow up the horizontal bets.

Yes, definitely important to know your track(s). That’s why I only play the major tracks (mainly Santa Anita and New York) and some Gulfstream Park and Keeneland. Not only do we need to know the trainer, but the jockey as well. So much info in horse racing, it is an art.

[Louisvillekid1]

A poster on here little kona I think , told me overseas racing gives a full stewards report of a horse is pulled up or eased / whatever .

If that’s true why can’t we get that info in US

hey STR I have a question about layoffs... I know every situation different ( I’ll add this to that list as well , which trainers can win off the Bench) but what do you make of horse coming off the pine after 6-7 months that’s been working during the break . Like you see a horse off a year lay-off and look at the works and see the horse just started working maybe a month or 2 ago, that makes sense. But when you see a horse coming off the bench from 6-7 months and has been working for the past 3-4 months , I get so confused.

[JBEX]

hey str

when I was looking at the chart for a race I picked I noticed in the comment said "lost whip 1/8 "..was a mile turf race at santa anita and mine was running close 2nd to the eventual winner through most of the backstretch and lost by a head (actually another just nipoed mine for 2nd)..is there any way to measure on average what losing the whip around that point of the race would cost the horse in lengths ?

[str]

Thank you Sir for your explanations. I did not know that 8-1 is the starting point standard for all firsters. This one was a strange case for me. I did check if there were any public news regarding these two first time starters. I didn't find any (but I do not have the clockers' report) and all the published workouts in the form are "normal" to me and nothing special. In fact, Chad's horse had a bullet workout. As the odds on the DD, nothing strikes me (the next race winner was the heavy favorite). In fact, he went from ML 3-1 to 9-2, so the public dismissed him too. The fact that Kiaran is not known for 1st out winners (so so for 2yo) made it all more strange to me. As for distance, this race is for 7f; if the race was for 6f, then maybe someone can argue about needing more distance. To me, 7f is a very demanding distance for first time starters especially for 2yr old. The horse needs the speed and stamina to run well (IMO). The jock for Chad's was Rosario (who has excellent numbers with Chad and he is higher riding percentage) and for Kiaran was Bravo (who has so so numbers with Kiaran and so so numbers win percentage). In most cases, I can make out the reasons for ML as they are, but once in a while, I see something like this and I have always wanted to ask you (but couldn't find a sample).

As for Max Sec, I see that your point and yeah deja vu all over again. LOL. I am a little disappointed that he couldn't run in the Classic, but oh well, it is what it is. But, I am more curious as who will be on him? Will it be Saez still or is it gonna to someone else? Probably stay with same jockey since I haven't seen anything...

Thanks again for you time and explanations. I have already put Chad's horse, Turnagain Tide, in my virtual stable and will definitely follow him. I wonder if Chad had turf on his mind all along.....

Q. As the odds on the DD, nothing strikes me (the next race winner was the heavy favorite).

A. What I mean is to see what the doubles are "will pay" from the winner of the previous race , if that applies. That can show more or less money than the odds would typically support.


Q. and all the published workouts in the form are "normal" to me and nothing special.

A. That is the mess with workouts. There are a ton of different things that can skew the times. These are NOT intentional to cash a bet, they are just the way things are. Things like jockey or exercise rider on the horse. Inside or outside. Whip or hand ride. Was one spotted several lengths? And I could go on forever. That is why works are soooo deceiving. Virtually worthless in my book unless you can see them and understand them.

There was certainly something in those works for the horse to be a stand out for him. Shame more is not done to allow all to see it.
Q. To me, 7f is a very demanding distance for first time starters especially for 2yr old. The horse needs the speed and stamina to run well (IMO)

A. Agree 100%

Q. I wonder if Chad had turf on his mind all along.....

A. Heck, when doesn't he.

[str]

Great info

love the baby races

in ny, Chad and Pletcher don’t win with firsters who aren’t pounded at the window

i fade that angle all the time

another angle , is fade Pletcher chalk debuting in the claiming level

always fade Todd blinkers on in debut

it’s simply important to know which trainers at the track you play are patient or not

For instance Jorge Abreu is chad’s old assistant and with his new barn , they run early

Danny gargan is hitting at a 36% clip but terrible with firsters ( has one I like the future of today in the 4th) but think contessa finally ends the losing streak.

Linda rice terrible with firsters

I can make a list in NY, if it’s helpful of all trainers tendency’s



ooh big angle I forgot , if you see Todd or chad with a chalk firster debuting on the dirt , with a work on the turf ... fade... because grass is the plan , now sometimes they are good enough to still win , but you simply win in New York beating them

One of my best handicapping instincts come , in the feeling of those 2 firsters are gonna run or not.

They can create easy single opportunities as well as bet against spots that blow up the horizontal bets.

Just great info for anybody to run with if they follow NY.

I hope some follow along and watch them prove themselves out.

They will be glad they did.

Thanks Kid !

[str]

A poster on here little kona I think , told me overseas racing gives a full stewards report of a horse is pulled up or eased / whatever .

If that’s true why can’t we get that info in US

hey STR I have a question about layoffs... I know every situation different ( I’ll add this to that list as well , which trainers can win off the Bench) but what do you make of horse coming off the pine after 6-7 months that’s been working during the break . Like you see a horse off a year lay-off and look at the works and see the horse just started working maybe a month or 2 ago, that makes sense. But when you see a horse coming off the bench from 6-7 months and has been working for the past 3-4 months , I get so confused.

Q. A poster on here little kona I think , told me overseas racing gives a full stewards report of a horse is pulled up or eased / whatever .

If that’s true why can’t we get that info in US


A. The info is out there . I know it is posted at the track in the recing secretary's office and pretty sure it is posted online but I will warn you. Unless they have changed their format, it is just enough info to make you come up with a poor decision. It is too general. It makes you assume way to much and we all know that if we assume enough, we will probably end up wrong.
Let me know if you find it, I will try and break it down for you if the terminology is vague.


Q. but what do you make of horse coming off the pine after 6-7 months that’s been working during the break . Like you see a horse off a year lay-off and look at the works and see the horse just started working maybe a month or 2 ago, that makes sense. But when you see a horse coming off the bench from 6-7 months and has been working for the past 3-4 months , I get so confused.

A. If they worked straight through the 6-7 months, chances are they were misidentified. I do not know how tough NY is on workouts as to telling the clockers who is working. I know from maryland, the clockers would call me on my phone if I worked one that they did not know but sometimes they did not call and the next morning I see they said a horse of mine worked and it did not. They thought it was horse A but it was another horse in my barn that I had just brought back or claimed. Every now and then the form might show a horse worked 1/2 the day before the race or the day after or something weird. If you see that, it's simply a mistake.

A horse that is off 6-7 months. Well, it took 90 days or maybe 105 days to get ready to run so therefore the horse was out of training for about 3 months. that is a minor injury and typically nothing to worry about. But, that means no training for 90 days. No way they are working during that span. If they are and a month lull shows up. Maybe a broken foot or a breathing operation like a myectomy?
Both simple operations that are done at the track by the vet. Not much time off at all for the myectomy. Couple of weeks is all. About 60 days for a foot. Will almost assuredly be wearing a bar show when it runs back 1st time so you could check that I guess. Will also show up on the nerved list. That to is posted in the Racing Sec. office and online I suppose. Neither is a deal breaker like a bet against. As a matter of fact, betting 1st time after a myectomy is a solid play. If they stopped in their last race, good chance they keep going 1st out. And off the drop is very solid.

No reason to train for 6-7 months straight. Makes no sense. If you see one, let me know.

[str]

hey str

when I was looking at the chart for a race I picked I noticed in the comment said "lost whip 1/8 "..was a mile turf race at santa anita and mine was running close 2nd to the eventual winner through most of the backstretch and lost by a head (actually another just nipoed mine for 2nd)..is there any way to measure on average what losing the whip around that point of the race would cost the horse in lengths ?

No. Each case is unique. But being at a place with responsible, talented riders usually means the horse had been pushed on, maybe hit once or twice and the rider was switching sticks and dropped it. If so, that tells you the rider had more to get out of the horse with the stick in all probability. So there is a good chance it might have been a costly mistake.

A top rider will only hit the horse 1-2 times on one side, then switch and go 1-2 on the other. Maybe switch back for one more but that is a long, long drive. That is what good riders do, or just show it to them. You can add one more strike if it is on the shoulder which usually is the 1st strike. The stick is usually still turned down and the effect is more like a wake up than a solid hit.

When I see jocks whipping all over the place 5, 8, 10 times, or more, it makes me sick. It is beyond dumb. It does not help at all and in many cases is detrimental to the horses outcome.
If you hit a horse in the same place in repetition, they become immune quickly. Numb to it. The stick is to be used as the element of surprise, not to pound them repeatedly. I find repeated strikes not only frustrating but amateurish. To say nothing about the optics of it. Sooo dumb.
Give me a race number and horse and I can watch the replay if you want.

[JBEX]

thanks str.. and I correct myself about the horse he was battling early on.. he gave it up coming into stretch and mine was battling with another down the stretch.. it's R8 on Sunday #8 hootie

https://mobile.santaanita.com/?video/replays/2019-10/13

[str]

thanks str.. and I correct myself about the horse he was battling early on.. he gave it up coming into stretch and mine was battling with another down the stretch.. it's R8 on Sunday #8 hootie

https://mobile.santaanita.com/?video/replays/2019-10/13

It comes up but when I click it does nothing. Tried several races. ???

[stevenash]

Question?

I saw Street Band's last outing and was impressed.

Does she have a chance in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

She will go off at a nice price I believe.

Thanks fellas.

[JBEX]

It comes up but when I click it does nothing. Tried several races. ???

I watch it on a tablet and it seems (without exact timing) to take about 12-15 seconds on mine but it does come up.. you see it spinning and eventually loads.. if you google santa anita race replays maybe that would make a difference

[str]

I watch it on a tablet and it seems (without exact timing) to take about 12-15 seconds on mine but it does come up.. you see it spinning and eventually loads.. if you google santa anita race replays maybe that would make a difference

Yeah, I tried.

Will try again later or tomorrow for sure.

[JBEX]

Yeah, I tried.

Will try again later or tomorrow for sure.

ok.. if you can't get it no big deal

[str]

Question?

I saw Street Band's last outing and was impressed.

Does she have a chance in the Breeders Cup Distaff.

She will go off at a nice price I believe.

Thanks fellas.

I don't follow it closely anymore but will be checking out that race for sure.

Others in here are free to chime in now but will need to wait another week or so for me to get some pp's.

Happy to try and help then.

Check back and remind me when we get closer.

BTW, forgot Belichick had a good year there.

Thought of Marty right away. Always enjoy trivia. Even if I am wrong too often. Lol.

[str]

ok.. if you can't get it no big deal

Yeah but now I want to see it !

[JBEX]

Yeah but now I want to see it !

ok lol.. I think you'll get it to work.. their you tube channel just shows stakes races

[stevenash]

I don't follow it closely anymore but will be checking out that race for sure.

Others in here are free to chime in now but will need to wait another week or so for me to get some pp's.

Happy to try and help then.

Check back and remind me when we get closer.

BTW, forgot Belichick had a good year there.

Thought of Marty right away. Always enjoy trivia. Even if I am wrong too often. Lol.

Thank you sir.

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...356&registry=T

[str]

Thank you sir.

https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...356&registry=T

Just opened the link and the one thing that jumps out at me is the every other race pattern that has gone on all year.

Win, lose, win, lose, etc.

She is coming off a win so if the pattern holds she is due to run a lesser than best effort.

But, I will certainly keep an open mind when looking at her. I gotta admit though that when I see that in a horse, it usually carries a lot of weight with my thought process. But, level of competition, post, trip, type of surface, etc. can have a big hand in that as well so we'll just have to wait and see the entire picture.

[stevenash]

^
I saw her run in the Cotillion, she ran a perfect monster race.

[mrginandtonic]

Q. As the odds on the DD, nothing strikes me (the next race winner was the heavy favorite).

A. What I mean is to see what the doubles are "will pay" from the winner of the previous race , if that applies. That can show more or less money than the odds would typically support.

Yes, I did looked at DD will pay stats and Pick 3; nothing special that caught my attention. In fact, he was mostly dismissed by the public. I think it’s one of those that probably has some info that the public doesn’t know. Thanks again STR for you time.

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just read that Joel Rosario will replace Mike Smith on McKinzie..... how is that a better fit?? That is beyond me...

[str]

^
I saw her run in the Cotillion, she ran a perfect monster race.

I will really have to dig into her form once I can see it.

The every other race thing is very real.

You rarely see it in a colt, you do see it in geldings typically older and typically going long .

The most common though is in fillies and mares. Want to see that as well as watch some of her replays off that link which I will for sure.

[str]

Sir STR, just read that Joel Rosario will replace Mike Smith on McKinzie..... how is that a better fit?? That is beyond me...

It's his world Mr. GandT.

We are just living in it.

[stevenash]

I will really have to dig into her form once I can see it.

The every other race thing is very real.

You rarely see it in a colt, you do see it in geldings typically older and typically going long .

The most common though is in fillies and mares. Want to see that as well as watch some of her replays off that link which I will for sure.

Thanks man, always appreciate your insight.
I used to follow the ponies regularly I just don't have the time anymore. I used to always go to the Beyers figures first, then I read this story. https://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-top...res-thing-past

It's a good read.

[JBEX]

Sir STR, just read that Joel Rosario will replace Mike Smith on McKinzie..... how is that a better fit?? That is beyond me...

rider strengths and weaknesses not my specialty but off the top isn't mckinzie more of a brawler on the front end type? if so I think that's joel's riding style would fit better than mike's.. just throwing it out there and could be completely wrong