[Thunderground]

Arrogate is running this weekend in the Pacific Classic.

Here's his previous race at the track:




Str, could you comment on the turn? He's making up ground very fast at the rail, then he comes off the rail at about the 1:52 mark of the video and immediately loses that momentum. As soon as he came off the rail, it was over for him. Do you see that the same way? (After that Mike Smith asks absolutely nothing of him, but that's another matter).

Meanwhile, Accelerate hugs the rail and is home free; and the rail would have opened up nicely for Arrogate, but that's 20/20 hindsight.

[str]

Thank you for your explanation. However, I think that I didn't make my question clear. The trainer enters the horse in an optional claiming race which means he/she doesn't have to make the horse available for claim, yet he/she does even though the form looks fine on paper. Do you think that he/she knows that there is something wrong with horse and he/she wants to get rid of the horse. Thanks again. I hope my question makes sense.

Now I am confused. Lol.

I think that you are seeing optional and assuming a horse can run in the race without a tag. That is true if they are eligible for the condition like nw/2 other than.
But if the horse has already won that condition the only way it can run in the race is to run for the tag.

Does that make sense?

Below is a optional claimer from the Laurel condition book. See if my explanation helps.

If not, please follow up.

It's a good question and it's important you understand what this tricky condition is.

10
TENTH RACE OPT ALLOWANCE/CLAIMING
Purse $42,000. (*Plus 30% Maryland Bred Bonus) For Three Year Olds
Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter ,
Waiver Claiming Or MD Sired Races Or MD Bred Races or Which Have
Never Won Two Races or Claiming Price $50,000 - $40,000.
Weight
122 lbs.
Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since June 4
2 lbs.
Such A Race Since May 4
4 lbs.
CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, For Each $5,000 To $40,000
2 lbs.
(Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances)
(Winners Preferred)
ABOUT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH

[str]

Thanks str. Much appreciated as always. They brought in the superintendent from Santa Anita for the new surface, so my thinking is that they knew this would happen, but timed it to be in normal shape for the Breeders Cup. I can wait for the soil to get all mixed in, and will stay away rather than monitor that process. What do you think is a reasonable time frame for that mixing of soil?

About 45-60 days

[str]

hey str

just letting you know that "the big fundamental" running in the 3rd at the spa.. first time over the strip off a 6 week layoff came in 3rd by less than 2 lengths on a clear lead.. was the even money favorite and horse that finished 2nd also running here.. blinkers come off and back in 25 days today..just giving you some background as we've been following a bit.. he's 9-5 and will probably be fav again today even though the other finished ahead of him.. not interested in betting him

I actually stumbled upon him running last time. Saw it live.

He had no visible excuse IMO. He ran fine but was simply outrun through the lane. If memory serves, he had the one hole and he cut fairly slow early fractions as well. But I might be thinking of another race.

Now back in 3 weeks. Hmmm.

Not exactly Todds strongest angle.

Should be interesting.

As for blks. off, he didn't look to me that he was waiting on horses but what do I know.

Thanks for the heads up.

[str]

Arrogate is running this weekend in the Pacific Classic.

Here's his previous race at the track:




Str, could you comment on the turn? He's making up ground very fast at the rail, then he comes off the rail at about the 1:52 mark of the video and immediately loses that momentum. As soon as he came off the rail, it was over for him. Do you see that the same way? (After that Mike Smith asks absolutely nothing of him, but that's another matter).

Meanwhile, Accelerate hugs the rail and is home free; and the rail would have opened up nicely for Arrogate, but that's 20/20 hindsight.

I see exactly what you are talking about at 1:52.

You could very well be 100% correct.

But IMO Smith was asking him aggressively enough prior to that to get him where he was.

I see him asking at 1:19, 1:38 and 1:49. Various degrees of ask but it IS asking. And not a lot of response.Watch nothing but his left hand to see it better.

He was out of gas when they turned for home.

Smith knew it and did not pursue it any more.

(I would think that Smith knew he was beat half way down the backside. Or at least, in serious trouble of getting beat.)

Seemed too me like the prudent thing to do especially with a horse of that caliber.

Don't tell that to the show bettors though. They won't want to hear it.

[JBEX]

I actually stumbled upon him running last time. Saw it live.

He had no visible excuse IMO. He ran fine but was simply outrun through the lane. If memory serves, he had the one hole and he cut fairly slow early fractions as well. But I might be thinking of another race.

Now back in 3 weeks. Hmmm.

Not exactly Todds strongest angle.

Should be interesting.

As for blks. off, he didn't look to me that he was waiting on horses but what do I know.

Thanks for the heads up.

he just won by about 1.5L..went off at 8-5 whereas the one who finished ahead of him last out was 6-5..JV let the 1 go to the lead (looked like he took a hold of him a bit) and he pressed that one all the way around..opened a lead going into the stretch and had plenty of horse

interviewed todd before the race and jv after the race..todd said jv told him he was though he was too keyed up before the last race and they wanted him to relax
more..thought he said (can't trust my memory anymore)that he wanted him to be a little looser on the bridle also..jv said he was more relaxed but still a little more keyed up than he'd like..thought if he could relax
more there's improvement possible down the road..as you know water starts to get pretty deep once you get past n2x

[str]

he just won by about 1.5L..went off at 8-5 whereas the one who finished ahead of him last out was 6-5..JV let the 1 go to the lead (looked like he took a hold of him a bit) and he pressed that one all the way around..opened a lead going into the stretch and had plenty of horse

interviewed todd before the race and jv after the race..todd said jv told him he was though he was too keyed up before the last race and they wanted him to relax
more..thought he said (can't trust my memory anymore)that he wanted him to be a little looser on the bridle also..jv said he was more relaxed but still a little more keyed up than he'd like..thought if he could relax
more there's improvement possible down the road..as you know water starts to get pretty deep once you get past n2x

I think I remember that. Not positive though.The horse was working against the jock into the 1st turn and down the backside.Rank with no pressure. If that was the race , and he said that is what happened , taking blks. off makes perfect sense.
Thanks for the heads up.

And yes, the water does get pretty deep once past 2OT. 3 OT can be a bitch. A much bigger jump than from A OT to 2 OT. MUCH bigger.

[JBEX]

I think I remember that. Not positive though.The horse was working against the jock into the 1st turn and down the backside.Rank with no pressure. If that was the race , and he said that is what happened , taking blks. off makes perfect sense.
Thanks for the heads up.

And yes, the water does get pretty deep once past 2OT. 3 OT can be a bitch. A much bigger jump than from A OT to 2 OT. MUCH bigger.

np.. btw on a lighter note the horse is named after former spurs all star tim duncan who i wasn't aware had that nickname.. todd was a fan and he was retiring around the time he was naming the horse.. maybe the fact he's a darn big horse had something to do with it also lol.. be fun following along.. I'll
let you know when I see him running again.. guess we're looking at belmont now.. not many n3x
so guess they'll be looking for a listed stakes race

[JBEX]

maybe ship to mth, lrl or prx if a good opportunity presents itself

[mrginandtonic]

Now I am confused. Lol.

I think that you are seeing optional and assuming a horse can run in the race without a tag. That is true if they are eligible for the condition like nw/2 other than.
But if the horse has already won that condition the only way it can run in the race is to run for the tag.

Does that make sense?

Below is a optional claimer from the Laurel condition book. See if my explanation helps.

If not, please follow up.

It's a good question and it's important you understand what this tricky condition is.

10
TENTH RACE OPT ALLOWANCE/CLAIMING
Purse $42,000. (*Plus 30% Maryland Bred Bonus) For Three Year Olds
Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter ,
Waiver Claiming Or MD Sired Races Or MD Bred Races or Which Have
Never Won Two Races or Claiming Price $50,000 - $40,000.
Weight
122 lbs.
Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since June 4
2 lbs.
Such A Race Since May 4
4 lbs.
CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, For Each $5,000 To $40,000
2 lbs.
(Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances)
(Winners Preferred)
ABOUT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH

Tks STR for the clarification. I got it now. I think I overlook the condition of the race. Tks again.

[str]

Tks STR for the clarification. I got it now. I think I overlook the condition of the race. Tks again.

Anytime Mr. G and T.

It's my pleasure.

Hope it helps.

[JBEX]

I'm pretty sure there are not many alw n3x in ny (if any) .. realize there are alw conditions beyond n3x but they are also infrequent and have a hunch that saratoga win would disqualify him from some of those.. when you were training would you say an avg ny alw condition would be a notch above the same md condition? like a n2x in NY being the equivalent of a n3x in MD.. or a n3x in NY being the equivalent of a listed stakes or alw nc in MD? realize there are other alw conditions beyond n3x like ones they'll write for a stakes horse returning from a long layoff

[Louisvillekid1]

I have a question

what is the best resource to view next winners out & sire/mare/trainer %'s???

I know this is waste of your of time to respond sir, but gotta be a quicker way than the way I do it

ty

[Louisvillekid1]

First off claim %
first starters %
next out results
previous race grades

etc

[Thunderground]

[/B]


About 45-60 days

Thanks! Good to know with the BC coming up.
Here's some more info about the surface and trainers reacting to it: http://www.drf.com/news/miller-unhap...t-back-runners

some excerpts:

Expressing concern about the condition of the track and how his horses have performed, Miller said Wednesday he plans to cut back his number of runners.“It’s too deep and too tiring,” he said. “The horses that run good over the track will run back.”

Other trainers have expressed similar sentiments. During training Wednesday, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert described the surface as “tiring.”

Jeff Mullins on Tuesday transferred his well-regarded 2-year-old Tatters to Riches to San Luis Rey Downs for a workout and then shipped the colt back to Del Mar the same day. Mullins said his stable has seen soft-tissue injuries this summer. He described the track as “deep and loose.”

Track officials are quick to point out a favorable safety record in the first 16 days of the meeting, during which one horse has suffered a catastrophic injury during racing on the main track. Another horse was fatally injured in a turf race.

Tom Robbins, Del Mar’s vice president of racing, said he has heard complaints from some trainers.
“We recognize that one racetrack is not going to suit all horses and all trainers,” he said. “That’s one thing I’ve discovered in 40 years of doing this. It’s deeper and slower, and it won’t be suitable to everybody.”

I also came across a very recent pic, but can't find it anymore, of Baffert in his work clothes at the Del Mar rail, with the caption that he was 'helping with track maintenance'... Hard to tell where his mind was from a pic, and maybe it was just a nice place to enjoy the ocean breeze.

Are trainers allowed to take soil samples a few feet deep or would that make no sense? You mentioned you would walk the track and what you would look for.

Smith knew it and did not pursue it any more.

(I would think that Smith knew he was beat half way down the backside. Or at least, in serious trouble of getting beat.)

Seemed too me like the prudent thing to do especially with a horse of that caliber.

Don't tell that to the show bettors though. They won't want to hear it.

He does that. Always looks out for the horse first. Seems a very special jockey with a lot of subtlety. He often won't use the whip at all, and will even make the use of the whip sound like an art. Not long ago he explained he had given three taps on one side, and then a quick one on the other, "just to surprise him." An explosion of speed had followed that last tap. Anyway, Smith on a huge favorite, with bigger races coming up, could be a profitable angle for savvy show bettors. When he felt the slightest thing was off he has pulled them up in the past.

[str]

Thanks! Good to know with the BC coming up.
Here's some more info about the surface and trainers reacting to it: http://www.drf.com/news/miller-unhap...t-back-runners

some excerpts:



I also came across a very recent pic, but can't find it anymore, of Baffert in his work clothes at the Del Mar rail, with the caption that he was 'helping with track maintenance'... Hard to tell where his mind was from a pic, and maybe it was just a nice place to enjoy the ocean breeze.

Are trainers allowed to take soil samples a few feet deep or would that make no sense? You mentioned you would walk the track and what you would look for.



He does that. Always looks out for the horse first. Seems a very special jockey with a lot of subtlety. He often won't use the whip at all, and will even make the use of the whip sound like an art. Not long ago he explained he had given three taps on one side, and then a quick one on the other, "just to surprise him." An explosion of speed had followed that last tap. Anyway, Smith on a huge favorite, with bigger races coming up, could be a profitable angle for savvy show bettors. When he felt the slightest thing was off he has pulled them up in the past.

"maybe it was just a nice place to enjoy the ocean breeze."

I would guess this is accurate.Lol.

Q. Are trainers allowed to take soil samples a few feet deep or would that make no sense? You mentioned you would walk the track and what you would look for.

A. Trainers need to stick to training horses, even if they did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Sorry, I couldn't resist.
And he is not on my list of favorite conditioners. He is excellent according to the record but from what I have personally observed, no thanks. Not my kind of guy.

No, they can't dig up samples on the track itself.

The track super has forgotten more about track maintenance than 99.9% of the trainers know. Thats like me showing the pilot where the flap switch is.
If Bob wants to do that somewhere else like near the parking lot of something, I guess he can.

Q. Not long ago he explained he had given three taps on one side, and then a quick one on the other, "just to surprise him."

A.Here is an answer I gave in July in another thread. Not sure why I even spoke to this guy.

If you want more, key word left handed or switch sticks or something like that from a couple of years ago in this thread.

• Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger
  I asked for 1 simple reply
  
  ill ask against since you are fukkin dumb
  
  "if it doesn't matter how much you whip your horse, why whip it"
  
  now go ahead
  
  
  
  Here is your quote:
  
  "does how much you beat your horse with the whip depend on how fast he will go???
  
  The answer is no.
  
  That is not close.
  
  Horses respond to the element of surprise which is why riders switch from one hand to another.
  
  Not all rides as sometimes there is no room on one side or the other because the other horses are tightly bunched. And not all riders. Most of those riders that do not are inferior in talent OR the rider cannot hit the horse on a certain side for fear of veering off course. (It gets complicated , so I will leave it at that. I do not want to go too fast for you).
  
  After hitting a horse a few times on one side, the strike becomes less and less effective and in many cases, the horse barely feels it after 2 or three to the same area, whereas if you go left handed once or twice switch and go right handed once or twice then switch back, along with showing them the stick prior to using it or tapping them on the shoulder with it to get their attention beforehand, the rider will usually get much more out of it.
  
  Some horses are never hit. More than a tap and they will sulk and stop competing altogether. Others just shown the stick. Occasionally, the rider will ride without a stick. That is a trainers decision and is made at time of entry.
  
  Just whipping the horse as much as you can is not only ignorant, it is against the rules in certain states.
  
  If a rider of mine had ever done that, they only would have done it once. That's because I wanted riders that actually understood what they were doing , not knuckleheads that think otherwise.
  
  There is your answer.
  
  Feel free to ask a question anytime but please lose the cursing. It's a sign of ignorance .
  
  
  Points Awarded:
  

  JayTris07 gave str 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.

  
  
  
  
  
  

[str]

I'm pretty sure there are not many alw n3x in ny (if any) .. realize there are alw conditions beyond n3x but they are also infrequent and have a hunch that saratoga win would disqualify him from some of those.. when you were training would you say an avg ny alw condition would be a notch above the same md condition? like a n2x in NY being the equivalent of a n3x in MD.. or a n3x in NY being the equivalent of a listed stakes or alw nc in MD? realize there are other alw conditions beyond n3x like ones they'll write for a stakes horse returning from a long layoff

Q. when you were training would you say an avg ny alw condition would be a notch above the same md condition? like a n2x in NY being the equivalent of a n3x in MD.. or a n3x in NY being the equivalent of a listed stakes or alw nc in MD?

A. If you were an average 2OT traveling to NY from Md. in the same condition, it would , rule of thumb be about 6-8 lengths tougher in Ny. Something like that. So sure, I guess you could safely say what you did and be in the ballpark.

If the horse we talked about who won yesterday goes to Monmouth for a 3OT , I would think he would be 2-5 or so.
Same at Laurel or maybe 1-5 there.
But not sure the NY 3OT is of Stakes quality in Md. Maybe a few lengths less on average. And the nw3 is typically a lesser quality condition than a 3OT. Of course all this is rule of thumb and based on an average quality field.

[str]

I have a question

what is the best resource to view next winners out & sire/mare/trainer %'s???

I know this is waste of your of time to respond sir, but gotta be a quicker way than the way I do it

ty

I am going to ask JBEX , Easy or the other guys in here to correctly answer this.

Hopefully they see it.

I don't want to give you outdated info Kid.

[str]

First off claim %
first starters %
next out results
previous race grades

etc

Same with this one.

Easy or JBEX. Throw us a bone here please.

I will say that I am an old school DRF Classic reader when I get a form. A lot of this in in there but these guys and others in here will probably know better than I do.

Good luck Kid.

Always a pleasure.

[Thunderground]

No, they can't dig up samples on the track itself.

The track super has forgotten more about track maintenance than 99.9% of the trainers know. Thats like me showing the pilot where the flap switch is.
If Bob wants to do that somewhere else like near the parking lot of something, I guess he can.

lol - thanks again. Did you see the movie 50 to 1 about Mine That Bird? Whoever made that movie was not a Baffert fan.

He probably mellowed out a bit. Especially with American Pharoah. I think he used to demand that jockeys who raced his horses would also exercise them. Not all liked that. He may still do so, I don't know, but Smith is not doing that. He only shows up for the bigger races, or for horses with future potential. Definitely is not going to exercise horses. It's kind of weird to see Martin Garcia exercising Arrogate. Garcia has won a -controversial- BC Classic himself.
Is there an advantage in having the best possible jockey as exercise rider?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Same with this one.

Easy or JBEX. Throw us a bone here please.

I will say that I am an old school DRF Classic reader when I get a form. A lot of this in in there but these guys and others in here will probably know better than I do.

Good luck Kid.

Always a pleasure.

I use Brisnet Ultimate PP's and they have most of that info included. Hey LKid what PP"s do you use?

[JBEX]

I have a question

what is the best resource to view next winners out & sire/mare/trainer %'s???

I know this is waste of your of time to respond sir, but gotta be a quicker way than the way I do it

ty

hey kid

next out winners and trainer %.. drf classic or bris ultimate

pedigree stuff.. brisnet ultimates

[Louisvillekid1]

Dam I need brisnet

ty

[Louisvillekid1]

Where does it say what the previous faced horses did next out?

Jeez I am amateur

I use the actuall drf form

lile having it my hand and not on comp

old school I suppose

also use throrograph

the pedigree stuff I just pretty much know from experience but would like exact #'s

[Easy-Rider 66]

Where does it say what the previous faced horses did next out?

Jeez I am amateur

I use the actuall drf form

lile having it my hand and not on comp

old school I suppose

also use throrograph

the pedigree stuff I just pretty much know from experience but would like exact #'s

Do not believe the Brisnets have that info. Jbex check in if mistaken.

[JBEX]

Do not believe the Brisnets have that info. Jbex check in if mistaken.

I should have been more clear..they will have in italics if any of the top 3 are repeat winners next out. .so if 4th place or lower wins next out you won't know...that's the extent of what they tell you

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah that's what I thought

I'll have to keep doing it individually

[JBEX]

Q. when you were training would you say an avg ny alw condition would be a notch above the same md condition? like a n2x in NY being the equivalent of a n3x in MD.. or a n3x in NY being the equivalent of a listed stakes or alw nc in MD?

A. If you were an average 2OT traveling to NY from Md. in the same condition, it would , rule of thumb be about 6-8 lengths tougher in Ny. Something like that. So sure, I guess you could safely say what you did and be in the ballpark.

If the horse we talked about who won yesterday goes to Monmouth for a 3OT , I would think he would be 2-5 or so.
Same at Laurel or maybe 1-5 there.
But not sure the NY 3OT is of Stakes quality in Md. Maybe a few lengths less on average. And the nw3 is typically a lesser quality condition than a 3OT. Of course all this is rule of thumb and based on an average quality field.

yes I should have been clearer that I meant OT rather than n2l or n3l alw conditions..the only listed stakes for 4+ boys at bel fall meet is the seattle slew stakes at 9f on sept 9..just have a hunch they're gonna have a tough time finding an advanced alw condition for this horse considering N3OT are uncommon in ny ..of course I'm assuming the horse is sound or this doesn't matter..I'll be following as a fan on this one..


first asked you about this horse when I saw him as a fts that cost 550k and was owned by todd and his dad which didn't make sense..you agreed he was probably sold to them for a lesser amount based on some limitations he may have had but just speculation of course..he's turned out to be a nice horse for them

[str]

yes I should have been clearer that I meant OT rather than n2l or n3l alw conditions..the only listed stakes for 4+ boys at bel fall meet is the seattle slew stakes at 9f on sept 9..just have a hunch they're gonna have a tough time finding an advanced alw condition for this horse considering N3OT are uncommon in ny ..of course I'm assuming the horse is sound or this doesn't matter..I'll be following as a fan on this one..


first asked you about this horse when I saw him as a fts that cost 550k and was owned by todd and his dad which didn't make sense..you agreed he was probably sold to them for a lesser amount based on some limitations he may have had but just speculation of course..he's turned out to be a nice horse for them

He is a nice horse.

Hopefully his soundness issues are finally behind him.

[Thunderground]

Arrogate's exercise rider Martin Garcia just beat Arrogate in the Pacific Classic. lol

[JBEX]

yes I should have been clearer that I meant OT rather than n2l or n3l alw conditions..the only listed stakes for 4+ boys at bel fall meet is the seattle slew stakes at 9f on sept 9..just have a hunch they're gonna have a tough time finding an advanced alw condition for this horse considering N3OT are uncommon in ny ..of course I'm assuming the horse is sound or this doesn't matter..I'll be following as a fan on this one..


first asked you about this horse when I saw him as a fts that cost 550k and was owned by todd and his dad which didn't make sense..you agreed he was probably sold to them for a lesser amount based on some limitations he may have had but just speculation of course..he's turned out to be a nice horse for them

don't want to keep harping on this but it's an important part of the story..remember when we discussed this you said they could've paid as low as pennies on the dollar (auction price).. so if you had to take a guess now breaking his maiden vs specials and going through 2 allowance conditions including a 2nd you'd say they are way ahead of the game with this guy already even at the higher end of what they could have paid?

[JBEX]

P.S. She is real good with 180+ days because that is how she was taught.

Eddie/Linda had them ready off a year if the horse was capable of being ready.

More than once.

An underrated horseman /Horsewoman family that I would consider an excellent outfit.

No frills, just hard work and solid horsemanship.

Have not seen Lacy since she was about 2 or 3 years old but rest assured she learned from top teachers.

their other daughter gabby if you weren't aware

https://www.theracingbiz.com/2016/06...saratoga-team/

[Thunderground]

their other daughter gabby if you weren't aware

https://www.theracingbiz.com/2016/06...saratoga-team/

Gabby is amazing. She just picked four or five straight winners based mostly on her knowledge of trainers and how they think. I tweeted Andy to never take her off the show. That team has a lot of good insight, but she adds something outstanding.

Excellent prerace coverage in NY. Light years ahead of the 'filler' they have at the main California tracks.

[str]

their other daughter gabby if you weren't aware

https://www.theracingbiz.com/2016/06...saratoga-team/

Thanks JBEX. Yes, I was aware. They are about 2 years apart I think and I must admit, with time gone by I don't remember which is older.

If you put your hand up to hide 1/2 her face, the right side IS her mom, Linda.

Man, that brings back memories.

No surprise that Linda had 2 daughters.

She has 3 sisters.

A lot of fillies in that stable.

What a great family.

Thanks.

[str]

Gabby is amazing. She just picked four or five straight winners based mostly on her knowledge of trainers and how they think. I tweeted Andy to never take her off the show. That team has a lot of good insight, but she adds something outstanding.

Excellent prerace coverage in NY. Light years ahead of the 'filler' they have at the main California tracks.

Very true Thunderground.

She was born and raised around the game and she understands the players within the game AND the game inside and out.

Makes things a lot easier to understand when you know that.

It's almost an unfair advantage.