[JBEX]

I think that if Secretariat thinks he was all that, I should as well. Lol.

ok have to ask..you think two superstars like that can sense a certain cockiness/confidence in the other that could spark the competitive juices in them ??

[str]

just reading your comments , and it made me remember , a jockey... friend of the family...eddie maple .....was on Secretariat i think.....hhim and his agent (spike ) thats what they called him i think......lol used to come our house for dinner , i was just a young young boy back when atlantic city race course was a big track ...

He rode and won on Secretariat . He rode for my boss when I was a groom. I remember him at the barn . Just barely though. Its been a long time.

Happy New Year to you as well Harthebar.

[str]

ok have to ask..you think two superstars like that can sense a certain cockiness/confidence in the other that could spark the competitive juices in them ??

Not in all cases but yes, that could certainly happen.

And from what you said, it sounds like it did.

I am not at all surprised.

[JBEX]

I know I've asked a bunch of questions of late and overall but sorry lol..have another..I was reading that northern dancer's stud fee was 500k in 1983/84 and then in 1985-1987 was made private (which I'm guessing means more or possibly foal sharing?)..factoring inflation that fee translates to about 1.3M in today's dollars..considering he stood in maryland was there a certain wow factor when one of his babies debuted in maryland..basically his babies from 1985 through the end of the decade were
from his peak stallion fee days..can only imagine the kind of mares they'd send to him at that fee back then..seems like if it's a colt you had better at least become a minor sire to have been worth spending that money..maybe a filly better proposition as even a mediocre race record could possibly produce a solid horse down the road...no rush on this one obviously

[JBEX]

I know I've asked a bunch of questions of late and overall but sorry lol..have another..I was reading that northern dancer's stud fee was 500k in 1983/84 and then in 1985-1987 was made private (which I'm guessing means more or possibly foal sharing?)..factoring inflation that fee translates to about 1.3M in today's dollars..considering he stood in maryland was there a certain wow factor when one of his babies debuted in maryland..basically his babies from 1985 through the end of the decade were
from his peak stallion fee days..can only imagine the kind of mares they'd send to him at that fee back then..seems like if it's a colt you had better at least become a minor sire to have been worth spending that money..maybe a filly better proposition as even a mediocre race record could possibly produce a solid horse down the road...no rush on this one obviously

just as a reference point the 2 most expensive today are tapit (300k) and war front (250k)..the latter by danzig,a son of northern dancer..I remember when I used to buy the big maiden stats books in the late 90's and danzig just had amazing numbers for first out winners and % of turf winners from starts..nobody could match him then and now I believe ..oops I apologize getting off the topic

[str]

I know I've asked a bunch of questions of late and overall but sorry lol..have another..I was reading that northern dancer's stud fee was 500k in 1983/84 and then in 1985-1987 was made private (which I'm guessing means more or possibly foal sharing?)..factoring inflation that fee translates to about 1.3M in today's dollars..considering he stood in maryland was there a certain wow factor when one of his babies debuted in maryland..basically his babies from 1985 through the end of the decade were
from his peak stallion fee days..can only imagine the kind of mares they'd send to him at that fee back then..seems like if it's a colt you had better at least become a minor sire to have been worth spending that money..maybe a filly better proposition as even a mediocre race record could possibly produce a solid horse down the road...no rush on this one obviously

Q. .I was reading that northern dancer's stud fee was 500k in 1983/84 and then in 1985-1987 was made private (which I'm guessing means more or possibly foal sharing?)

A. As he got too old to cover 40+ mares, they took him off the market and began selectively allowing mares to be bred to him. Fairly typical with great sires towards the end of there career.

Q. considering he stood in maryland was there a certain wow factor when one of his babies debuted in maryland.

A. It rarely happened. I don't recall more than a few that ran in Md. except for graded stakes.

One thing to remember about breeding. It is NOT where the mare is impregnated ( covered) , it is where the foal is born ( drops).
So a mare could have been bred to him in Cecil County, Md. and had the foal in Kentucky and the horse would be considered a Kentucky bred.
Back in the late 70's and 80's, a Md. bred was not anything to get excited about at all in the world of racing.

Winning a Md. Bred stake was an eye roll when reading the horses breeding page. Anybody who had a Northern Dancer was looking at graded Stakes. Anything short of that was somewhat of a disappointment at best.

But do remember, a filly could be a bust at the track by him and still be awesome as a mare. That happened plenty of times.

There was an old slow gelding by Northern Dancer running for 4K or 5K at Bowie one winter. I had a ton of horses and claimed everyday.

I claimed him. I just had to be around one. He was very cool. Had a great head and plenty of ND's traits. He couldn't run a lick though.

I never won with him. Don't think he was ever 2nd either. Probably ran him 4 or 5 times. I lost money but it was worth it too me.

I just HAD to have one.

[str]

just as a reference point the 2 most expensive today are tapit (300k) and war front (250k)..the latter by danzig,a son of northern dancer..I remember when I used to buy the big maiden stats books in the late 90's and danzig just had amazing numbers for first out winners and % of turf winners from starts..nobody could match him then and now I believe ..oops I apologize getting off the topic

Danzig was a tremendous sire.

He sired a lot of Champions.

[JBEX]

Q. .I was reading that northern dancer's stud fee was 500k in 1983/84 and then in 1985-1987 was made private (which I'm guessing means more or possibly foal sharing?)

A. As he got too old to cover 40+ mares, they took him off the market and began selectively allowing mares to be bred to him. Fairly typical with great sires towards the end of there career.

Q. considering he stood in maryland was there a certain wow factor when one of his babies debuted in maryland.

A. It rarely happened. I don't recall more than a few that ran in Md. except for graded stakes.

One thing to remember about breeding. It is NOT where the mare is impregnated ( covered) , it is where the foal is born ( drops).
So a mare could have been bred to him in Cecil County, Md. and had the foal in Kentucky and the horse would be considered a Kentucky bred.
Back in the late 70's and 80's, a Md. bred was not anything to get excited about at all in the world of racing.

Winning a Md. Bred stake was an eye roll when reading the horses breeding page. Anybody who had a Northern Dancer was looking at graded Stakes. Anything short of that was somewhat of a disappointment at best.

But do remember, a filly could be a bust at the track by him and still be awesome as a mare. That happened plenty of times.

There was an old slow gelding by Northern Dancer running for 4K or 5K at Bowie one winter. I had a ton of horses and claimed everyday.

I claimed him. I just had to be around one. He was very cool. Had a great head and plenty of ND's traits. He couldn't run a lick though.

I never won with him. Don't think he was ever 2nd either. Probably ran him 4 or 5 times. I lost money but it was worth it too me.

I just HAD to have one.

yeah I was aware of the where the foal is dropped is considered the breeding state.. probably the best broodmares were and still are in kentucky so most of them probably were of that state.. just thinking in 1985 he was 24 years old so obviously near the end of his breeding days..he and mr prospector head of the class in those days but the former definitely the best.. still a few years before storm cat came along who of course is a grandson of northern dancer


like the claim just to have a northern dancer in your barn.. can understand wanting to do that from your perspective.. too bad he didn't have at least 1 good race left in him lol.. bet mr whiteley had at least 1 or 2 of them over the course of his career.. pretty potent combination a good ND under his care... thanks again

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Hope things are well. If you take a look at the Pegasus PP's tomorrow would be interested to read what you think about the race. Thx.

[str]

Hey STR: Hope things are well. If you take a look at the Pegasus PP's tomorrow would be interested to read what you think about the race. Thx.

Sure will Easy.

Will get back to you later once I pull up the race on DRF

[str]

Hey STR: Hope things are well. If you take a look at the Pegasus PP's tomorrow would be interested to read what you think about the race. Thx.

I will assume that Gun Runner is 3 wide ( Sharp Azteca and Collected) at a minimum early. That doesn't sound like a trip you cannot win with.

If he breaks a bit flat footed it could be 4-5 wide. That would be real tough.

Assuming that he is 1-1 or something like that, I would try and beat him. I rarely play chalk.

The pace should be very solid so the paper reads. That has me look to a horse with a garden spot type ground saving trip to come and pick up the pieces. That logic wants a 3 wide duel from the 5/8ths pole ( half way down the backside or something like that).

Looks too me that the garden spot could very well be West Coast.

I will try him.

Who do you like Easy?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx STR. Have not looked it over. Will check back in about 20 minutes out.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Taking a small shot with the #5 Collected. GL.

[str]

I will assume that Gun Runner is 3 wide ( Sharp Azteca and Collected) at a minimum early. That doesn't sound like a trip you cannot win with.

If he breaks a bit flat footed it could be 4-5 wide. That would be real tough.

Assuming that he is 1-1 or something like that, I would try and beat him. I rarely play chalk.

The pace should be very solid so the paper reads. That has me look to a horse with a garden spot type ground saving trip to come and pick up the pieces. That logic wants a 3 wide duel from the 5/8ths pole ( half way down the backside or something like that).

Looks too me that the garden spot could very well be West Coast.

I will try him.

Who do you like Easy?

I did not see the race but according to the chart, this race was over after about 12 seconds.

For Gun Runner to only be 2 wide was a gift. Had he drawn the 5 post, he would have been bet down further and after the 12 seconds, that is essentially what he had.

Also, for what it's worth, Sharp Azteca had only one way to possibly run well. That was to gun and make the lead and force the favorite to work hard. He did neither.

Horses off setting quick fractions in one turn miles to get outrun and check off heels going into the first turn with a short run to it, is as bad an early outcome as it could be. Don't know what was going on there but whatever it was, it wasn't good.

I guess I'm glad Gun Runner won. Clearly the best, he deserved to go out a winner.

Very pleased with the way West Coast ran. Look for some big races from him this year.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I wonder what happened to Collected? He got the lead by himself and then folded like a house of cards. He had run some really good races in the past. If you watch the replay would be interested to get your take on Collected.

[str]

I wonder what happened to Collected? He got the lead by himself and then folded like a house of cards. He had run some really good races in the past. If you watch the replay would be interested to get your take on Collected.

Just watched it.

Honestly, unless we hear that Collected is off, but he did not look that way too me, so it would be a misstep thing where he pulled up ok but got sore cooling out or the next morning ( today), my guess is that this is simply a case of trying to give a horse that has been on a long campaign a bit of a breather and it had a larger affect on him than the trainer thought it would.
I mean, seeing his last race it reminded me of Arrogates form. That is why I threw him . It is really hard to run a bad race and come right back and beat a horse who has shown to be better than you.

Watching him twice on the replay, the horse was out of gas at the 4 1/2 pole. That's a little more than half way down the backside. That is NOT the horse we saw last year nor was his last race. If you watch the riders hands down the backside as Gun Runner creeps up on him, they start to push with the long hold ever so slightly. It looks subtle but that is all a horse that has anything left needs to pick it up. If it's tough to notice, watch Gun Runners jocks hands vs. Collected's riders hands. You will see the difference as Gun Runners jocks hands are as still as can be. It starts at 1:08 on the tape. Subtle but obvious too me. He does that most of the way down the backside and no response. And as the race went on, the rider never asked much harder. He knew he was out of horse.
It is really hard to take a stand on these elite horses from afar and be right because the difference between a good Collected and a not so good Collected is minuscule.

Lets see if he is not ready to start his climb back to old form in his next race. I would assume he will be. If so, it was exactly what I said. If not, it might be something physical that needs addressing.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Just watched it.

Honestly, unless we hear that Collected is off, but he did not look that way too me, so it would be a misstep thing where he pulled up ok but got sore cooling out or the next morning ( today), my guess is that this is simply a case of trying to give a horse that has been on a long campaign a bit of a breather and it had a larger affect on him than the trainer thought it would.
I mean, seeing his last race it reminded me of Arrogates form. That is why I threw him . It is really hard to run a bad race and come right back and beat a horse who has shown to be better than you.

Watching him twice on the replay, the horse was out of gas at the 4 1/2 pole. That's a little more than half way down the backside. That is NOT the horse we saw last year nor was his last race. If you watch the riders hands down the backside as Gun Runner creeps up on him, they start to push with the long hold ever so slightly. It looks subtle but that is all a horse that has anything left needs to pick it up. If it's tough to notice, watch Gun Runners jocks hands vs. Collected's riders hands. You will see the difference as Gun Runners jocks hands are as still as can be. It starts at 1:08 on the tape. Subtle but obvious too me. He does that most of the way down the backside and no response. And as the race went on, the rider never asked much harder. He knew he was out of horse.
It is really hard to take a stand on these elite horses from afar and be right because the difference between a good Collected and a not so good Collected is minuscule.

Lets see if he is not ready to start his climb back to old form in his next race. I would assume he will be. If so, it was exactly what I said. If not, it might be something physical that needs addressing.

Thx for the analysis. Will be following him this year to see if Collected bounces back.

[str]

I was reading a thread in players talk where someone asked about money management. I am pretty sure I have talked about this before but have no idea where or when in this thread, so I thought it would maybe help someone if I re posted what helped me a lot .

We all know it depends on what game you are playing so I will try and explain a basic overview of horses and the NFL and you can fill in the same logic with whichever sport you choose.

Like many players, before keeping records, I will say I broke about even. LOLOL. We all know that is a load of crap. I had to lose combining everything, and it was not a lot of money because I never had enough early on to make high plays. But, the amount is relative to the players wealth so that doesn't really matter. But even though I am sure that I made money playing certain sports, overall, I had to be in the negative overall. No doubt about it.

So one year, I started keeping a record of all my plays. It's easier than you think. I made a page for every sport I played. It showed yearly amounts .

But for daily amounts, I just wrote down the amount plus or minus. Then transferred that to monthly, and then yearly. It didn't take long to realize that I needed more categories to help me become a better player. I started breaking down horses into fast or off track. A simple asterisk by the amount told me off track. I then expanded that to sprint or distance, as well as win, place, show, exacta and Daily double. No triples or other back in the day when all this started.

For football it became, Home or road favs or dogs, and Monday night which was a novelty back then. That would soon expand to back to back road games or home games, etc. etc.

It did not take long to see that certain categories I was quite strong in, while others I was pretty bad.

Eliminating playing the losing categories, which for me at the track were place, show, and daily double and keeping the winning ones made gambling almost become investing. Same with football. I eliminated road favs and most home favs.

Because I was so interested in BEATING the game, I lost interest in the need or impulse to have action.

As far as I am concerned, that last sentence was the most important finding in doing what I did.

It changed everything for me. My patience, my tolerance, my outlook on gambling.

No sense in rambling on any further about this without addressing a specific so that's the simple version for now.

I know that what I did and still do, is not for everyone but hopefully it is for someone. And if not to the degree I took it, maybe to a lesser degree for some players.

Whatever the case, I hope this helps someone improve their bottom line.

[mrginandtonic]

I was reading a thread in players talk where someone asked about money management. I am pretty sure I have talked about this before but have no idea where or when in this thread, so I thought it would maybe help someone if I re posted what helped me a lot .

We all know it depends on what game you are playing so I will try and explain a basic overview of horses and the NFL and you can fill in the same logic with whichever sport you choose.

Like many players, before keeping records, I will say I broke about even. LOLOL. We all know that is a load of crap. I had to lose combining everything, and it was not a lot of money because I never had enough early on to make high plays. But, the amount is relative to the players wealth so that doesn't really matter. But even though I am sure that I made money playing certain sports, overall, I had to be in the negative overall. No doubt about it.

So one year, I started keeping a record of all my plays. It's easier than you think. I made a page for every sport I played. It showed yearly amounts .

But for daily amounts, I just wrote down the amount plus or minus. Then transferred that to monthly, and then yearly. It didn't take long to realize that I needed more categories to help me become a better player. I started breaking down horses into fast or off track. A simple asterisk by the amount told me off track. I then expanded that to sprint or distance, as well as win, place, show, exacta and Daily double. No triples or other back in the day when all this started.

For football it became, Home or road favs or dogs, and Monday night which was a novelty back then. That would soon expand to back to back road games or home games, etc. etc.

It did not take long to see that certain categories I was quite strong in, while others I was pretty bad.

Eliminating playing the losing categories, which for me at the track were place, show, and daily double and keeping the winning ones made gambling almost become investing. Same with football. I eliminated road favs and most home favs.

Because I was so interested in BEATING the game, I lost interest in the need or impulse to have action.

As far as I am concerned, that last sentence was the most important finding in doing what I did.

It changed everything for me. My patience, my tolerance, my outlook on gambling.

No sense in rambling on any further about this without addressing a specific so that's the simple version for now.

I know that what I did and still do, is not for everyone but hopefully it is for someone. And if not to the degree I took it, maybe to a lesser degree for some players.

Whatever the case, I hope this helps someone improve their bottom line.

Very well said, sir. I have learned over the years that money management is the key to long term success in sports investment. Discipline is the key. Anytime I deviate from that, most of the time I will be on the losing side.

[JBEX]

I admire anyone who puts in a little extra to improve their bottom line in either..I feel with the horses though a feel for which races are your strengths more important than records..those times you won cause another had a bad trip or lost because you had the same can skew results
..also you'd need an awfully large sample to validate a strength or weakness..far as sports for me..less is more (plays) ,small if any variant in bet size,no exotics except teasers and most importantly stay on an even keel..you're not as good as your good runs or as bad as your bad runs..truth somewhere in the middle and hopefully closer to being good over time..just my two cents and sure there are many varied opinions on this subject

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: Want to get your opinion on 2004 Belmont Stakes. Birdstone upsets Smarty Jones at 37/1. I have heard that Elliot moved too soon on Smarty costing him the race. Do you agree? Thx in advance.

[str]

Hey STR: Want to get your opinion on 2004 Belmont Stakes. Birdstone upsets Smarty Jones at 37/1. I have heard that Elliot moved too soon on Smarty costing him the race. Do you agree? Thx in advance.

I see the avatar goes with the question EASY.

I have heard people say this plenty of times. My opinion if needed to be yes or no, would be no.

It is so easy to say that stuff in the Belmont. Mainly because it has happened so often when a rider unfamiliar with the oval rides it in that race. That said, did he move early? Well maybe just a little. Did it cost Smarty Jones the race? Probably not.
Stewart was forced to move early down the backside when Jerry Bailey moved prematurely. He had to keep his position. Right eye clear, right?

So that hurt a little. Did he move 6-8 jumps before he could have ? Yeah, I guess. But it wasn't 20 jumps. So, Could he have survived and won by a nose had he waited a bit more? Maybe. Maybe not. We will never know. But Damn, it is so easy to slow all this down and re ride the horse after knowing what happened through the lane isn't it?
What I am certain of is that Smarty hit a wall and was out of gas. Could that wall have been moved closer to the finish line with the most perfect ride ever? Probably.
But all things considered, Stewart broke from the far outside and had Smarty relaxed and in as great a relaxed spot as any rider could have ever been able to. He was forced to let out a small notch when Bailey moved early down the backside, probably for the sole purpose of making Stewart do what had to be done. So 24+ and 48+ went to 1:11 and change. (Baileys motive had to be to loosen him up hopefully for the drive.) Smarty responded turning for home , hit that wall late and was caught.
So my question back would be, if a rider does everything perfectly, and that's saying a lot, and slightly mistimes a final drive on a horse that never hit a wall before and never lost before, is that costing him the race?
All and all, and having to say guilty or not guilty, I would say not guilty.
The other thing not talked about was his bloodlines which put a lot of doubt into Smarty getting 1 1/2 miles. Another reason Bailey probably did what he did which was way out of character for his style of riding.

What do you think Easy?

[Easy-Rider 66]

The result remains controversial due to the tactics used with Rock Hard Ten and Eddington. Many felt that

Jerry Bailey

in particular on Eddington did not ride to win, as the early move while racing wide sacrificed his horse's chances.

^[11]

"I never saw two riders ride so hard to lose a race in my life", said Roy Chapman, the owner of Smarty Jones, a week after the race. "They just were out for one thing: making sure Smarty didn’t win."

Thx again STR. Yeah have to agree with your assessment that the Elliot's ride did not cost him the race. The premature move by Bailey on Eddington was a huge factor. BTW Great call by Durkin.

[str]

The result remains controversial due to the tactics used with Rock Hard Ten and Eddington. Many felt that

Jerry Bailey

in particular on Eddington did not ride to win, as the early move while racing wide sacrificed his horse's chances.

^[11]

"I never saw two riders ride so hard to lose a race in my life", said Roy Chapman, the owner of Smarty Jones, a week after the race. "They just were out for one thing: making sure Smarty didn’t win."

Thx again STR. Yeah have to agree with your assessment that the Elliot's ride did not cost him the race. The premature move by Bailey on Eddington was a huge factor. BTW Great call by Durkin.

Wow.

Well there you have it.

But... they are paid to win on their mounts. They did what they thought they had to do to try and win.

Can't say all they wanted to do was make sure Smarty didn't win, I but I understand why the owner would feel that way.

[mrginandtonic]

Wow.

Well there you have it.

But... they are paid to win on their mounts. They did what they thought they had to do to try and win.

Can't say all they wanted to do was make sure Smarty didn't win, I but I understand why the owner would feel that way.

I think owners will always feel that way. They won’t admit that maybe their horse just didn’t have it. I know I would especially when it’s a big race.

[str]

I think owners will always feel that way. They won’t admit that maybe their horse just didn’t have it. I know I would especially when it’s a big race.

I'm with you Mr. G and T.

I truly understand the owner /horse bond and I would expect nothing different.

Great to see you around again.

It's always a pleasure talking with you.

[mrginandtonic]

I'm with you Mr. G and T.

I truly understand the owner /horse bond and I would expect nothing different.

Great to see you around again.

It's always a pleasure talking with you.

Pleasure is all mine sir.

Have a a question for you sir, you and I both use the Racing Form for handicapping. Just curious on what criteria do you look for and weight the most to you when cap the Derby? Thanks in advance.

[JBEX]

ok str ..good to know that can happen as I have observed that many times over the years

I'll give the horse a mention now as he's really bred to be something down the road and obviously off to a good start..the dam won a grade 1 at CD at the same distanceof 7f..dam sire street sense won ky derby and travers..and of course by tapit speaks for itself

principe guilherme

had picked this horse as a first time starter back in november and asked you a question relative to his auction sale..he won his 2nd race and ran 2nd in fairgrounds first leg of their 3 race derby prep series (his 3rd race)..2nd choice today in leg 2 behind the horse who beat him..had a tough trip in that one..just wanted to give it a mention

[str]

Pleasure is all mine sir.

Have a a question for you sir, you and I both use the Racing Form for handicapping. Just curious on what criteria do you look for and weight the most to you when cap the Derby? Thanks in advance.

Having looked at races for so many years in terms of race set up and identifying speed, position, closers in an attempt to best prepare my rider for what will likely happen instead of concentrating on finding the winner, I find myself constantly gravitating towards that.

I know that a lot of trainers say that they do not tell the riders much of anything but I always did. That was how I was taught and I was usually riding riders that appreciated what I was saying about the pace, position etc. as well as the little things that my horse did like or did not like. I asked CJ about that once well after he had reached HOF stardom in Calif. and he said that it was always something he wanted to hear. Of course, having learned his trade in the next barn over with Odie Clelland at Bowie,while I was learning mine, I'm pretty sure both our mentors were doing the same thing. But who better to ask than him?

It is hard to fight off my tendency because I handicap so little these days. Only for the triple crown, BC, and a rare trip to C.T. or Laurel with my old buddies do I look unless asked to which I am always happy to do.
And while it produces it's share of winners, I am not sure it is my best effort but without doing it often enough, it is hard to find a groove or comfort level approaching it another way.
I do not know much about today's speed figures and I assume that if I did, they would be helpful. My often talked about disdain for Beyer Numbers makes me never look at them. As documented in here, that is because they were so flawed in my day, with built in excuses when they didn't work, too me, they were a joke. It is impossible for me to get past that .

So when I look at pace, if I see 3 speeds and all three have speed riders, and post positions or the position of the gate in conjunction to the turn that won't keep them from attending the pace, that usually has me salivating for a horse to lay 4th or, if that does not seem like a fit, a solid closer. Then I look for the riders. Having solid rider is comforting , and in the Derby you will have one, but in normal races, I look for the very weak rider as well. They are usually a toss, especially if they are bet on. I will use them for 3rd in a triple or something like that but I think the game is tough enough without having low % rider guiding my ticket.
You know that I am a huge "Blks. on" guy. Again, not as much for Derby's but everyday capping. But the trainer changing the equipment is just as important for my confidence level.
Where they ran prior to the Derby is big for me. Certain paths just do not seem to get it done. That does not make me throw a horse but it makes me think a lot about it.
I would say who likes the mud on an off track but nowadays it seems almost every horse does. Pretty sure that is because the great ones that are breeding the best horses could have run down the interstate and won. My bet would be that if they ran a race on asphalt, most of the field would like that too. Lol.
I have probably left out a few keys but those come to mind.

Let me know what I have left out and, or tell me what your keys are.

I would love to hear how you as well as others approach the race.

Thanks GT.

[str]

had picked this horse as a first time starter back in november and asked you a question relative to his auction sale..he won his 2nd race and ran 2nd in fairgrounds first leg of their 3 race derby prep series (his 3rd race)..2nd choice today in leg 2 behind the horse who beat him..had a tough trip in that one..just wanted to give it a mention

Thanks JBEX.

So did the winner have a nice trip or is a speed horse and yours a closer I assume?

[JBEX]

I have to confess i was going by drf comments..they broke next to each other posts 9 and 10 and very wide around both turns (watched race..lecomte on youtube)..they both ran midpack and rallied..I thought the winner had a good trip besides being wide and mine the same..4 lengths separated them..one other thing of note the winner had lost a grade 1 by less than a length in his last start and mine had won an allowance race in his last start so seasoning edge to the other..that being said pg odds 6-5 while the other was 2-1 and the other was a $1M+
2yo purchase..btw the other horse is instilled regard

[JBEX]

should also mention pg won his 2 races at FG while ir was shipping in from los alamitos..probably had something to do with it8

[mrginandtonic]

Having looked at races for so many years in terms of race set up and identifying speed, position, closers in an attempt to best prepare my rider for what will likely happen instead of concentrating on finding the winner, I find myself constantly gravitating towards that.

I know that a lot of trainers say that they do not tell the riders much of anything but I always did. That was how I was taught and I was usually riding riders that appreciated what I was saying about the pace, position etc. as well as the little things that my horse did like or did not like. I asked CJ about that once well after he had reached HOF stardom in Calif. and he said that it was always something he wanted to hear. Of course, having learned his trade in the next barn over with Odie Clelland at Bowie,while I was learning mine, I'm pretty sure both our mentors were doing the same thing. But who better to ask than him?

It is hard to fight off my tendency because I handicap so little these days. Only for the triple crown, BC, and a rare trip to C.T. or Laurel with my old buddies do I look unless asked to which I am always happy to do.
And while it produces it's share of winners, I am not sure it is my best effort but without doing it often enough, it is hard to find a groove or comfort level approaching it another way.
I do not know much about today's speed figures and I assume that if I did, they would be helpful. My often talked about disdain for Beyer Numbers makes me never look at them. As documented in here, that is because they were so flawed in my day, with built in excuses when they didn't work, too me, they were a joke. It is impossible for me to get past that .

So when I look at pace, if I see 3 speeds and all three have speed riders, and post positions or the position of the gate in conjunction to the turn that won't keep them from attending the pace, that usually has me salivating for a horse to lay 4th or, if that does not seem like a fit, a solid closer. Then I look for the riders. Having solid rider is comforting , and in the Derby you will have one, but in normal races, I look for the very weak rider as well. They are usually a toss, especially if they are bet on. I will use them for 3rd in a triple or something like that but I think the game is tough enough without having low % rider guiding my ticket.
You know that I am a huge "Blks. on" guy. Again, not as much for Derby's but everyday capping. But the trainer changing the equipment is just as important for my confidence level.
Where they ran prior to the Derby is big for me. Certain paths just do not seem to get it done. That does not make me throw a horse but it makes me think a lot about it.
I would say who likes the mud on an off track but nowadays it seems almost every horse does. Pretty sure that is because the great ones that are breeding the best horses could have run down the interstate and won. My bet would be that if they ran a race on asphalt, most of the field would like that too. Lol.
I have probably left out a few keys but those come to mind.

Let me know what I have left out and, or tell me what your keys are.

I would love to hear how you as well as others approach the race.

Thanks GT.

Good morning sir, thank you very much for your input. I attack the form in very the same. I have a couple more questions in particular to the Derby. What do you think of a horse breeding? Is dosage a factor to you? What about the horse’s experience? Trainer like Lukas usually have a ton of races before the Derby.

I know what you mean when you said you are salivating when there are a few speed horses in the race. I also love it when I find the lone speed in a distance race especially on turf and that other people overlooked. I do use Beyer figure (not other speed or pace or power numbers cuz I don’t understand them). I usually use that to help me throw out horses especially when their numbers are way low compared to others. I really think Pace makes the race. Also, overtime, I would notice certain trainer do something weird and I will pick up. Finally, what are your thoughts on trainers that have been “bad” for many years that they have a good year. For example, recently one of my favorite trainer, Drysdale, seems like to have a resurrected career, currently he is winning at almost 30%, wonder what changed??

Again, thanks in advance for all your help and insight.

[JBEX]

hey str

the ortiz brothers since the beginning of 2017 have ridden
in over 3300 races (1700/1600) and are both winning at a 20% clip..if you played all their mounts you would lose about 17 cents on the dollar.. rather than say I'm looking for a system because we know there's no such thing how about some parameters to lower the loss which is not horrible to begin with

ortiz brothers..
lower half or third of the claiming ladder..
finished 4th or worse last out..
not dropping down..


I realize the 4th could be do to a bad trip or a bad ride from another jockey but want simple rules.. could you see a simple method like this lowering the loss over a large sample of races..sure you can see the logic behind these rules..if you think there'd be a good addition feel free to suggest it

[str]

Good morning sir, thank you very much for your input. I attack the form in very the same. I have a couple more questions in particular to the Derby. What do you think of a horse breeding? Is dosage a factor to you? What about the horse’s experience? Trainer like Lukas usually have a ton of races before the Derby.

I know what you mean when you said you are salivating when there are a few speed horses in the race. I also love it when I find the lone speed in a distance race especially on turf and that other people overlooked. I do use Beyer figure (not other speed or pace or power numbers cuz I don’t understand them). I usually use that to help me throw out horses especially when their numbers are way low compared to others. I really think Pace makes the race. Also, overtime, I would notice certain trainer do something weird and I will pick up. Finally, what are your thoughts on trainers that have been “bad” for many years that they have a good year. For example, recently one of my favorite trainer, Drysdale, seems like to have a resurrected career, currently he is winning at almost 30%, wonder what changed??

Again, thanks in advance for all your help and insight.

Q. What do you think of a horse breeding?

A. It is great to like a horse with a fine pedigree but it is not a deal breaker for me if the horse does not. It will make me lean a bit harder on his pp's and make certain I am not overlooking something though.

Q. Is dosage a factor to you?

A. Going into the Derby, sure. But it is just a tool. I do not swear by it. After the Derby, we have a race at a mile and a quarter to help be the judge. I count on that for the other two races.


Q. What about the horse’s experience? Trainer like Lukas usually have a ton of races before the Derby.

A. The game has passed me by with these horses that take 3 months between races. It wouldn't happen when I trained and I truly question it now. Not being around horses like I was makes me think something has changed but personally I hate it . I think I will be sure and ask Tony D. about that when we catch up.

Q. I really think Pace makes the race.

A. Me too.

Q. what are your thoughts on trainers that have been “bad” for many years that they have a good year. For example, recently one of my favorite trainer, Drysdale, seems like to have a resurrected career, currently he is winning at almost 30%, wonder what changed??

A. I don't know what helped him become what he was. Let me ask you, did he get one really nice horse and over 6-8 months pick up much better stock? That happens often enough.
What goes with winning, is confidence. As hard as you try, you mind set recoils a bit towards conservative when things are not going so well. You can seem to try and avoid mistakes. what that does is take away any creativity or decisions of risk in spotting a horse,specifically, claimers.
But when things are rolling, a trainer tends to take more shots and be more aggressive. Both of those happened too me. It was hard to pinpoint in the moment but no question I could feel it.
One thing for sure, he didn't forget how to train and then remembered. But the confidence sure makes things click. I am certain of that.